The Weather Outlook

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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
28 July 2018 19:57:36

 

Hmmm, pity about the tornado muse......

If we are now to see as many scorchers as washout summers, back to back, then maybe by the end we will have seen some big twisters?

Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf 

  Good call though Gray!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Gray-Wolf
28 July 2018 20:40:46

  Good call though Gray!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Why thank you young Lady!

If the mechanisms I am told, and accepting,  are really impacting in the way the studies say then it is no biggie to figure that more energy pouring out over Autumn/Early winter in the Arctic would alter the 'harmonic' of the wave in the jet (and I've spent 8 years cursing folk 300 miles east of us as they were on the 'summer' side of the Jet and not the permanent autumn side!)

My only concern is if it is my reckoning, and not merely a conflagration of forcings, then there is the same level of chance of seeing as many back to back years with the Jet settling out into this configuration ( if the Rockies set up the 'start point' for the oscillation?) as we saw of the summer trough that brought us the washout summers?

I just do not know which is more destructive of the two patterns?

We have 20 Million being spent here to respond to the 2015 'boxing day' floods but similar pots of cash will not be available after march next year ( maybe as 'foreign aid?) to the businesses/homes a lengthy drought would impact?

We drink from reservoirs up here but in the SE lots of the water is from aquifer?

How will that be doing after another 6 years of this type of summer with most rainfall quickly drained off into rivers and off to the sea as the hard packed dry surface acts like asphalt.

Will the shareholders of the water comp.s or the customers have to suffer?


Koyaanisqatsi

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Gray-Wolf
29 July 2018 18:44:33

And back into the heat we go.......

Some of the models now going for real heat in the S.E. over the coming week?

The folks fooled into the 'washout again' predictions might have fared better if they'd payed closer attention to seasonally ice free sea areas that opened since 2012?

Maybe then they could have seen extra energy allowing a shape/position of Jet markedly different from the shape/position we became used to over the washout summers?

The positive thing for me is more folk accepting notable change has occurred , and then using that accepted knowledge, to tweak their forecasts with?

I am only a weather enthusiast, not a meteorologist, so if it pans out that my understanding of what must occur under our new reality of 'new energy' forcings ( augmented by general AGW forcings) messing with northern hemisphere circulation patterns then maybe we might all take it more seriously (and less dismissively)?

3 more back to back summers close to this years have you convinced?


Koyaanisqatsi

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

KevBrads1
24 September 2018 07:24:14

 

August: average month rainfall wise and temperatures.

 

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

Not far off.


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

johncs2016
24 September 2018 07:41:43
My prediction for August came off quite well because it was drier, warmer and sunnier down south compared to here in Scotland although the rainfall figures for this part of the world was about average overall.

However, I then predicted that this month would be an extension to the summer and provide us with what we should have been getting from August. That sadly, hasn't happened. It is now actually turning out to be quite a cool month here and over the last couple of nights, we have even been not too far away from getting our first air frost of the season, which is something which we wouldn't normally expect to see happening here until well into October.

It is also still on course just now to be a duller than average month, although it's not been as dull as August in terms of the overall anomaly. In fact, it has actually been fairly sunny over the last few days and it is not too late for that to result in us getting away with a sunnier than average month.

As far as rainfall is concerned, it looks as though we will get a wetter than average month at Edinburgh Gogarbank which goes against my prediction for this to be a decent month overall, although the rainfall total at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh is still below average and at a level which is unlikely to made up according to the latest model output. This would suggest that just like last month, this month's rainfall totals are going to end up being around average here overall which means that our run of months without a wetter than average month that still stretches all the way back to May, now looks likely to extend for another month.

When you add that together, this month isn't actually turning out to be as bad here in terms of the average overall statistics as it had looked as though it was going to be not too long ago, which means that my prediction hasn't been a total disaster either.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

KevBrads1
22 October 2018 05:43:24

 

September: a fairly wet cool month.

October: some anticyclonic spells, a quiet month.

 

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

September ended up average

 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Bolty
22 October 2018 11:31:32

October - A big mix. A very warm first week with temperatures quite widely into the mid-20s before things turn quite unsettled in the middle. The month finally ends with the first cool/cold snap of the season (CET 11.3)

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

Actually done pretty well with that one!


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

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