The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

Hungry Tiger
28 July 2018 12:36:48

A sneak peak at the August CET.

Initial calculations for the first 11 days of the month suggest a mean of 18.32C by the 11th.

That is 1.4C above the 1981-2010 mean. The August CET has not exceeded 18C since 2003 so we are due a warm one.

Another warm month looking likely. Another 19C month by no means out of the question if the serious heat returns.

All of the first 11 days of August are currently projected to be above average apart from the 1st which is exactly average.

If the July CET finishes at 19.1C then we only need an 18.2C August CET to beat the CET for 1976.

I would say at this point there is at least a 50% chance, and probably higher, of this summer ending up warmer than 1976.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

As son as you're ready Simon for the August CET watch I'll sticky it for you as soon as I see it.

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
28 July 2018 12:40:09

Yes, I think sometimes people concentate too much on max temps for a summer CET month and forget that it is an average and min temps are just as important.

Originally Posted by: Col 

  I think people forget a few things. That this is a lighthearted and fun competition, that the CET is a long running series, that the weather they get isn’t always representative, etc!  But, it’s all excusable when we’re so passionate and excited about the weather!  We all do it at times!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Gavin P
28 July 2018 12:59:55

 

I'm not ready to rule it out yet because of the rather unsettled day we are expecting tomorrow. The maximums for tomorrow are somewhat uncertain. I should be ready to make a call by tomorrow evening on whether the 19C is nailed on.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

 

Thanks GW!

I've also noticed a rather cool night (possibly around or even slightly under 10C) looks possible on Monday night/Tuesday morning which won't help?

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
28 July 2018 13:05:03

18.2 would be an amazing ask for August but achievable given the signals. Worth noting though that from 20th August onwards the CET starts to naturally tail off so I think we would need to be somewhere close to 19c  (also allowing for downward corrections) for most of the month to allow for that.

It just goes to show how exceptional 1976 was. 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

  Here I come with my glass half full!  

Yes it does just show how exceptional summer ‘76 was and we’d do very well to even come close to it.  But, so far, this summer has also been exceptional and I believe we can beat or equal ‘76.  We just need some warmer nights and for the heat to be more evenly spread across the country!  We can do it!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
28 July 2018 13:07:57

 

Thanks GW!

I've also noticed a rather cool night (possibly around or even slightly under 10C) looks possible on Monday night/Tuesday morning which won't help?

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Gav, come on, stick your neck out!  Do you think we will beat the 1976 CET?  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Gavin P
28 July 2018 13:25:29

Gav, come on, stick your neck out!  Do you think we will beat the 1976 CET?  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

 

Hmmmmmmm....  For Summer 2018 overall?  My guess... Probably not. 

 

Sorry to be a party pooper. 

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
28 July 2018 13:35:21

Hmmmmmmm....  For Summer 2018 overall?  My guess... Probably not. 

Sorry to be a party pooper. 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

  Ahh, well you did only say ‘probably’, so I still might let you come to my next party!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Gavin P
28 July 2018 13:37:30

  Ahh, well you did only say ‘probably’, so I still might let you come to my next party!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

 

Oh that's OK then. 

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

ARTzeman
28 July 2018 14:47:32

 

I've just checked the Met Office Hadley CET page, and I'm sure that you meant to say 3.6ºC for that anomaly which I have marked in bold, above.

Never mind, I'm sure that this was just a typo.

 Amended .   

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 



Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Global Warming
28 July 2018 19:09:29

The 19C CET is looking a bit more secure this evening. 

After inputing today's data and the latest model output my CET estimate for the whole of July is now standing at 19.12C. 

Still too early to be sure we will hold above 19C but I think we will.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
28 July 2018 19:22:21

The 19C CET is looking a bit more secure this evening. 

After inputing today's data and the latest model output my CET estimate for the whole of July is now standing at 19.12C. 

Still too early to be sure we will hold above 19C but I think we will.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Awww!  Fingers crossed GW!  I’m sure you’re right!  

Mind you, the temp here fell to 12c this afternoon according to my car!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

LeedsLad123
28 July 2018 19:54:45

Awww!  Fingers crossed GW!  I’m sure you’re right!  

Mind you, the temp here fell to 12c this afternoon according to my car!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Same here. Our minimum temperature for today was set at 4:15pm. 

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
28 July 2018 20:03:31

 

Same here. Our minimum temperature for today was set at 4:15pm. 

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

Yes it was about 5pm when I nipped out to Asda for kitchen roll (clothes shopping ) and got a shock when I saw the car dash reading 12c!  That’s about 6 degrees lower than last night!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Gavin P
28 July 2018 20:14:22

The 19C CET is looking a bit more secure this evening. 

After inputing today's data and the latest model output my CET estimate for the whole of July is now standing at 19.12C. 

Still too early to be sure we will hold above 19C but I think we will.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

 

Good news! I think it deserves to. 

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
28 July 2018 20:35:44

 

Good news! I think it deserves to. 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

I absolutely agree with you Gav!  

I think that ‘probably not’ earlier in the thread, might now be ‘possibly could’. 

You’re invited to join in the fun of the August party!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Gavin P
28 July 2018 20:39:56

I absolutely agree with you Gav!  

I think that ‘probably not’ earlier in the thread, might now be ‘possibly could’. 

You’re invited to join in the fun of the August party!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

 

 

We'll have to see how hot we can get it during the the first half of August. 

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

ARTzeman
29 July 2018 10:34:22

Met Office Hadley       19.5c.     Anomaly        3.5c.  Provisional to 28th.

Metcheck                    19.71c    Anomaly        3.25c

Netweather                 20.2c      Anomaly        3.53c

Alton                         19.9c.     Anomaly        1.6c

Canvey Island            2.12c.     Anomaly        2.26c

Cheadle Hulme          19.8c      Anomaly         2.6c

Clevedon Weather      20.7c      Anomaly        2.22c          

Darwen                     20.2c      Anomaly        2.54c

Hexam                      19.6c      Anomaly        3.3c

Mount Sorrel              20.2c     Anomaly        2.52c

Mansfield Woodhouse 19.5c     Anomaly    1.5c

Peasedown St John 19.89c    Anomaly   1.35c

Treviskey Redruth Cornwall 18.1c  Anomaly  0.64c.

 

Mean Of 10 Stations = 19.90c.        



Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Hungry Tiger
29 July 2018 11:11:54

We've only got today, tomorrow and the day after. That shouldn't knock it down by more than 0.2C at the most.

 

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
29 July 2018 11:43:47

We've only got today, tomorrow and the day after. That shouldn't knock it down by more than 0.2C at the most.

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

Yes, if my daily forecasts are representative with the last three daily means only being 17.5c, that would bring us down to 19.3c.  Then we just have to hope the month end adjustment isn’t 3c, which I think it was last month.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

ARTzeman
30 July 2018 10:07:01

Met Office Hadley      19.4c.     Anomaly      3.4c. provisional to 29th.

Metcheck                   19.62c    Anomaly      3.16c

Netweather                19.93c    Anomaly      3.44c

Alton                        19.8c      Anomaly      1.5c

Cheadle Hulme          19.7c      Anomaly      2.5c

Mansfield Woodhouse 19.5c    Anomaly    1.5c

Peasedown St John  19.77c   Anomaly    1.23c.

 

Mean of 10 stations   19.72c. 



Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
30 July 2018 16:06:31

1.2 mm Today.

25.2 mm To Date.



Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Gusty
30 July 2018 17:47:53

Tense times here in Gusty's back yard.

As of yesterday my mean had dropped to 19.96c but today's afternoon max of 22.8c combined with last nights very warm 18.1c has pushed the mean up to 19.98c ! 

I've lived at my current address since September 2006 and as a result a 20+C month has never been achieved.

I record midnight to midnight so a few things are needed.

  1. To remain above 18.1c up to midnight.

  2. To record a mean tomorrow of 20.5c (A max of 24c and a min of 17c would do it.

We import some cooler uppers tomorrow that could result in a lower evening temperature. I think I will miss out but it will be mighty close.

 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Whether Idle
30 July 2018 18:23:06

Tense times here in Gusty's back yard.

As of yesterday my mean had dropped to 19.96c but today's afternoon max of 22.8c combined with last nights very warm 18.1c has pushed the mean up to 19.98c ! 

I've lived at my current address since September 2006 and as a result a 20+C month has never been achieved.

I record midnight to midnight so a few things are needed.

  1. To remain above 18.1c up to midnight.

  2. To record a mean tomorrow of 20.5c (A max of 24c and a min of 17c would do it.

We import some cooler uppers tomorrow that could result in a lower evening temperature. I think I will miss out but it will be mighty close.

 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

The max tomorrow will be the issue Steve, you're looking at something in the region of 19.99

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
30 July 2018 18:58:29

The max tomorrow will be the issue Steve, you're looking at something in the region of 19.99

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

Aahhh!  That’s cruel!  

Steve, I have my fingers crossed for you!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
30 July 2018 19:06:13

 

The max tomorrow will be the issue Steve, you're looking at something in the region of 19.99

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

But given that you only measure to the nearest 0.1C then surely any average should be quoted to that level of precision as well so that would be 20.0C.

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Remove ads from site