Hello folks,

Here's the week ahead weather forecast video and written versions;

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/weather-forecast-for-the-week-ahead.php

A respite from the hot weather for a few days but expect the #UKHeatwave to return by the end of next week as the long, hot Summer goes on...

Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and the Mods for making it happen! 

Great stuff Gavin - Thanks very much for your excellent contribution to the forum.

Thanks Gav! 

Anyway, thanks for those earlier videos from today which were very informative as usual.

I have read a lot of comments on this forum talking about high pressure being in charge from early as Monday, where the member in question has failed to point out that this is only really going to be the case in SE England. For here in Scotland, it still looks fairly changeable for most of the week ahead as it's not really until the end of the week that we get a taste of that high pressure, and your forecast backs that up really well.

As regards to the other video, it is interesting that the models are now leaning more towards a drier autumn than a wetter one. We have entered a more unsettled spell of weather just now but even with that, this has still been a dry summer overall. This means that if August was to end up being drier than average as well, (your videos from yesterday hinted that this might end up being the case) then we could be looking at quite a massive rainfall deficit in places towards the end of the autumn if that model input ends up being correct.

great work MR GAVIN/.. looking forward to winter updates.    just been looking at the 16 day forecast cant remember what site it was but they are saying getting warming thru next week, high temps, 30 by end of next week and by the 7th august temps dropping down to mid to low 20s  and there after staying like that... never look to far ahead as we all know but hope the next wave is the LAST.  cheers buddy

Thanks again Gav!  Love your enthusiasm and the way you explain things!  And yes, I’m enjoying this wobble in the weather so much more knowing it’s not for long!  

Thank you for your thoughts Gavin... 

I think that we're more likely to get a wet autumn, and some of the models are still pointing towards that as shown in Gavin P.'s first video of today, even if these models are pointing away from that scenario.

For a number of years recently, our springs and autumns were coming out drier than average with our winters being mild, wet and stormy and with our summers being rather wet and miserable as well. From that, we can see that it was during our winters and summers that we were getting most of our rainfall.

However, the last couple of years or so does appear to have changed that a bit. We have to go all the way back to that really wet and stormy winter of 2015/16 to find our last wetter than average winter here and although last summer was wetter than average, this summer has been a lot drier. In between all of that, last autumn and then this year's spring were actually pretty wet for much of the time with a lot of that precipitation falling as snow during the early part of this spring, before it then turned a lot warmer from the middle of April onwards.

This makes me wonder if we are now switching away from dry springs and autumns alternating with wet summers and winters, and more towards dry winters and summers alternating with much wetter springs and autumns. If that is the case, that would back up any prediction of a wet autumn this year. It would also lean towards a dry winter coming up after that but if it is a cold winter which we are looking for, that could actually be quite good news because whilst it would be great to get a lot of snow, it is also important to realise than on average, wetter winters are more likely to be milder with cold winters being more likely to be drier than average.

^^^^^

Thanks guys! 

Caz I'm pleased my enthusiasm still comes across. I've been doing this since 2012 and after so long you could become jaded but fortunately I still love the weather as much as ever! 

John/Sizzle, one possibility is a 1959 scenario where Summer just runs on and on into September and even October. That's what the lovely Simon K is currently forecasting;

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/seasonal-outlook.htm

BTW here's the link for the second Autumn 2018 seasonal model round-up for anyone who hasn't watched the video;

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/autumn-2018-weather-forecast.php

There's also a written summary that goes with the vid as well.

Yes but of course, your videos, your YouTube channel and your website form only a part of what you actually do when it comes to the weather as shown by the fact that you actually joined this forum a whole 10 years before me. Since you joined this forum back in 2006, this means that you were active on this forum long before you probably even thought about doing any sort of video content, or your own website for hosting all of that.

To me, your contributions to this forum (not just in those Gavin's Thoughts threads which you start every week, but also on other threads such as the Model Output thread) are every bit as valuable as your video content, and complement that very well. Furthermore, it is also good that you also have a good team at your disposal such as Terry Scholey who does some excellent written long-range stuff on your website and James Akrill who helps you to compile all of the various analogues and other things.

I’ve been following your forecasts for as long as you’ve been doing them, in various forms and as they’ve developed.  It amazes me how you’re able to rattle off comparisons to past events without having to think about it, which clearly shows your depth of knowledge and understanding of weather patterns. You’re not afraid to say what could transpire yet you balance that with caution, which shows confidence in your subject and you explain and demonstrate in a clear language that’s understandable to those less informed.

Oh dear!  I hope I’m not sounding like a groupie, or an OFSTED inspector!   

Anyway, you get an ‘outstanding’ award from me and you deserve all the credit you get!  

^^^^^^

Awwwwww... Thanks guys! I'm sure your both far too kind but it does mean a lot to hear such lovely comments. 

Caz it was actually the December To Remember in 2010 that started me thinking wouldn't be be cool to be able to do video forecasts charting developments like that amazing freeze-up. 

John actually I go back before 2006 on here. I go right the way back almost to the very beginning of TWO forum in 2000/2001. I've been around since the Jurrasic era.