Hopefully we have a 19.0C CET in the bag. The big question now is how will August shape up.

July has tried so hard!  I feel sorry for it!   

Although, I have a good feeling about August not being too bad and I so want this year to beat 1976!  I remember that year well and so did my eldest, he’s not with us now though, but my younger two weren’t born then, so I’d really love to share the best summer ever with them!  The weather has become their favourite subject!  

Come on August!  

And I (like many others) will of course, be looking forward to your daily updates for that on next month's CET thread.

In my back yard it’s already a top summer!  

The July average in my back garden has reached 20.06c but will fall away now.

A real shame about the CET this month. Unfairly spoiled by a weather station just 15 miles from the Irish Sea.

Ho hum.

Agreed. Given the relatively cool conditions over the next several days, it'll be no surprise that the CET for July falls below 19.0C, probably even 18.8C after adjustments. This will be very disappointing!

It also makes you wonder whether the previous highest record for July of 19.7C in 2006 will ever be surpassed again.

It would be a shame if a few relatively cool days right at the end of the month spoiled it. Still, the CET '19 club' is an extremely exclusive one with very high entrance requirements. If this July did make it it would only be it's 4th member!

AIUI the CET stations are located on the perimeter of what is considered to be 'central England' and are intended to be representative of conditions within it.

Worth looking at the mean temperatures for each of the CET stations this month. Actually Pershore College in the west has the highest figures. It is the maximum temperature at Stonyhurst that has been the issue. If that had been a couple of degrees higher it would have added 0.3C to the CET.

Rothamsted

Mean max: 26.9C

Mean min: 13.6C

Mean: 20.25C

Pershore College

Mean max: 27.5C

Mean min: 13.8C

Mean 20.65C

Stonyhurst

Mean max: 23.7C

Mean min: 12.7C

Mean: 18.20C

If, for example, the CET was to use Rostherne rather than Stonyhurst then you would add 2C to the maximum temperature, but at the same time you would take nearly 1.5C off the minimum. So overall it would not make a lot of difference.

Rostherne

Mean max: 25.9C

Mean min: 11.3C

Mean: 18.60C

I think we’ll get that magic 19c and GW’s projections show we will too!  Have faith ye weather lovers!  

Yes, I think sometimes people concentate too much on max temps for a summer CET month and forget that it is an average and min temps are just as important.

That’s the thing with stats. In theory, you could have a 19.0 CET month with the daytime max never exceeding 24C and with nights of 14C every day.

OK it would never happen like that in practice, but the point is valid.

A sneak peak at the August CET.

Initial calculations for the first 11 days of the month suggest a mean of 18.32C by the 11th.

That is 1.4C above the 1981-2010 mean. The August CET has not exceeded 18C since 2003 so we are due a warm one.

Another warm month looking likely. Another 19C month by no means out of the question if the serious heat returns.

All of the first 11 days of August are currently projected to be above average apart from the 1st which is exactly average.

If the July CET finishes at 19.1C then we only need an 18.2C August CET to beat the CET for 1976.

I would say at this point there is at least a 50% chance, and probably higher, of this summer ending up warmer than 1976.

Slight OT, but I’d love to see a summer index (like what Kevin does for Manchester) for the three CET stations, which would be a much better guide for the quality of conditions.

Here is the contingency planners forecast for August and the next 3 months. Very warm conditions expected to continue.

The probability of temperatures falling into the coldest of the 5 categories for the combined Aug-Oct period is less than 5%. The probability of temperatures falling into the warmest of the 5 categories is a massive 55%. On average you would expect a 20% probability for each category. So a very strong signal for the warm conditions to continue.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-aso-v1.pdf

18.2 would be an amazing ask for August but achievable given the signals. Worth noting though that from 20th August onwards the CET starts to naturally tail off so I think we would need to be somewhere close to 19c  (also allowing for downward corrections) for most of the month to allow for that.

It just goes to show how exceptional 1976 was. 

Thanks for that GW. Conclusive evidence that it is Stonyhurst, with its close proximity to the Irish Sea, that is supressing the CET figure. 

I would be pleasantly surprised if July finishes at 19.1C!

If it does fall below that though, it's going to be an even bigger ask on August to beat the CET summer series figure of 17.77C of 1976. For instance, if the CET for July finishes at 18.9C, then we will need an August figure of at least 18.4C to beat 1976. Not impossible given current output, but a big demand on August nonetheless. 

Completely agree. If 18.2C were needed in August to beat 1976, then it would come joint 7th with 1911 in the CET monthly series for August, well inside the top ten Augusts since 1659. Obviously if the July figure is lower than 19.1C, then it gets even more difficult! 

Met Office Hadley       19.5c.   Anomaly   3. 6c. Provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                    19.85c. Anomaly    3.39c

Netweather                 20.1c   Anomaly     3.61c

Mansfield Woodhouse  19.7c    Anomaly    1.7c

Peasedown St John   19.87    Anomaly 1.34c.

Mean of my watched 10 stations  = 20.06c.  

Thanks GW. 

You don't think there's any danger we'll finish up under 19C for July?

I've just checked the Met Office Hadley CET page, and I'm sure that you meant to say 3.6ºC for that anomaly which I have marked in bold, above.

Never mind, I'm sure that this was just a typo.

I'm not ready to rule it out yet because of the rather unsettled day we are expecting tomorrow. The maximums for tomorrow are somewhat uncertain. I should be ready to make a call by tomorrow evening on whether the 19C is nailed on.