The Weather Outlook

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25 July 2018 22:12:40

Straying slightly beyond the boundary of the thread title, it is also worth watching the temperatures in Belgium over the next couple of days. A national record is possible.

Tomorrow the AROME high res model has a maximum of 37C

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome/runs/2018072512/aromehd-31-30-5.png?25-17

The Belgian weather service is only predicting a high of 35C.

By comparison AROME is predicting 34C for the UK tomorrow so that is close to what the Met Office are predicting. 

The Belgian national record is 38.8C.

On Friday the Belgian weather service is predicting a high of 37C.

AROME does not go out to 48hr but ARPEGE is hinting at 38C in Belgium on Friday

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/runs/2018072512/arpege-31-54-0.png?25-17

So a real possibility of a national record in Belgium on Friday I think.

Also a possibility in the Netherlands on Friday as that ARPEGE chart has a 38C in the south of the Netherlands. Their national record is 38.6C.

LeedsLad123
25 July 2018 22:13:34
Surprised the national Dutch and Belgian records aren't higher tbh.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Rob K
26 July 2018 05:31:07
Max yesterday was 32.0C at Wisley.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Tim A
26 July 2018 05:46:58

Our regional Met Office forecast goes for a max of 31c today and 34c tomorrow. It wont be above 28c for the vast majority of this region tomorrow so not sure why they are forecasting 34c. Today should be the hottest day of tbe year here i am hoping for a 29c.


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Jiries
26 July 2018 06:05:51

Max yesterday was 32.0C at Wisley.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

While here was 32.1C yesterday and today I expect to see 35-36C and 36-37C tomorrow with minimum around 22-23C.

Jiries
26 July 2018 06:09:13

Our regional Met Office forecast goes for a max of 31c today and 34c tomorrow. It wont be above 28c for the vast majority of this region tomorrow so not sure why they are forecasting 34c. Today should be the hottest day of tbe year here i am hoping for a 29c.

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

Tomorrow will be the hottest day as the ensembles for 00z had been showing Friday the peak but not sure why some think today is the hottest day when it not as on the ensembles the cooler air will arrive in the late evening tomorrow. 

RobR
  • RobR
  • Advanced Member
26 July 2018 06:11:44

Love a potential record day, watching the temperatures rising. Not sure they will reach predicted levels though.


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Heavy Weather 2013
26 July 2018 06:12:13

 

While here was 32.1C yesterday and today I expect to see 35-36C and 36-37C tomorrow with minimum around 22-23C.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

My iPhone weather app has 37C for today so I’m excited to hopefully see at least the July record go.

Some altocumulus here this morning. Clouds better not soil the party like we saw when the record was reached a 36.7C was reached.

Are you sky’s clear there. 

I just walked to the station and already feels very hot.


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Tim A
26 July 2018 06:30:04

 

Tomorrow will be the hottest day as the ensembles for 00z had been showing Friday the peak but not sure why some think today is the hottest day when it not as on the ensembles the cooler air will arrive in the late evening tomorrow. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

 

Well tomorrow will be warmer in the SE but today will be warmer here and most other central and western and northern  areas.

This is why i hate the regional text forecasts they are decieving. The public will read it as being 3c warmer in Yorkshire tomorrow than today.  Perhaps it will be warmer in the far SE of my region but not for most up here. 


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Jiries
26 July 2018 06:30:51

 

My iPhone weather app has 37C for today so I’m excited to hopefully see at least the July record go.

Some altocumulus here this morning. Clouds better not soil the party like we saw when the record was reached a 36.7C was reached.

Are you sky’s clear there. 

I just walked to the station and already feels very hot.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Yes and see only few of it in the west and in my mind said go away and leave us alone.  Surprisingly the temperature here last night was 15.5C despite forecast for 18-20C and now quickly rose to 23C.  I think it something to do with very dry ground acting like a desert that can get cool nights but very hot at day time. 

Jiries
26 July 2018 06:43:42

 

 

Well tomorrow will be warmer in the SE but today will be warmer here and most other central and western and northern  areas.

This is why i hate the regional text forecasts they are decieving. The public will read it as being 3c warmer in Yorkshire tomorrow than today.  Perhaps it will be warmer in the far SE of my region but not for most up here. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

For here the BBC text forecast put 29C here tomorrow so they can get lost.  It will be 36-37C tomorrow and not sure why they are desperate to avoid the real peak heat tomorrow.  Sad that they left the Met office as i saw the screen grab show 37 here tomorrow from the met site map.

Bolty
26 July 2018 08:27:47
Already 22.5C where I am at this time. Could be another 30C day for Manchester.
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

danm
  • danm
  • Advanced Member
26 July 2018 08:41:18

 

For here the BBC text forecast put 29C here tomorrow so they can get lost.  It will be 36-37C tomorrow and not sure why they are desperate to avoid the real peak heat tomorrow.  Sad that they left the Met office as i saw the screen grab show 37 here tomorrow from the met site map.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

 

It's computer generated, so the raw ECM data for London must be showing 29c and thundery tomorrow.


Home: London (NE)

Work: London (Central)

Rob K
26 July 2018 08:56:57
Raw output has moderated from 36C to 33C for London today and 29 tomorrow. I think today will have a higher max than tomorrow overall.

Biggie Hill 27C at 9.30am so far.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

johncs2016
26 July 2018 09:33:21

No temperature records are expected to be broken in this part of the world but even as early as 10am this morning, the temperature was already at 20.4ºC at Edinburgh Gogarbank, 22ºC at Edinburgh Airport and 22.0ºC at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.

Clearly, today looks like being a hot one here in Edinburgh even without the searing heat which is being forecast for SE England.

EDIT:

As at 11am this morning, the temperature has jumped up even further to 22.8ºC at Edinburgh Gogarbank, 24ºC at Edinburgh Airport and 24.2ºC at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

andy-manc
26 July 2018 10:47:29

BBC are now forecasting cloudless 27C for here tomorrow with no rain at all. Not sure how likely this is? It was originally down to be 23C, heavy showers all day. Would be nice to squeeze another hot day out of this week 

Tim A
26 July 2018 11:05:58

BBC are now forecasting cloudless 27C for here tomorrow with no rain at all. Not sure how likely this is? It was originally down to be 23C, heavy showers all day. Would be nice to squeeze another hot day out of this week 

Originally Posted by: andy-manc 

Yep there seems to have been quite a change.  More cloud and thunderstorms today and dry and hot tomorrow. 

24.0c here now with sunny spells and scattered cloud.   Wont be 30c here today, perhaps 27-28c. 

 

 


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

LeedsLad123
26 July 2018 11:18:15

Yes, cloudy and 25C. 30C once again out of reach. I don't know what it is with forecasters and cloud but they are almost always wrong recently, to the point that the forecasts are essentially useless.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Rob K
26 July 2018 13:04:37

Keep an eye on date records over the next few days. Here are the current records

24 July 32.6C (Barnet 1900)

25 July 33.9C (Regent's Park 1900)

26 July 33.3C (Southampton 1885)

27 July 34.4C (Margate, Cambridge Botanical Gardens 1933)

All of the above could be beaten this week

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

26 July date record gone today, with 33.9C so far the highest.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

johncs2016
26 July 2018 13:44:53
Just as it had looked as though we might get our highest temperatures of the year so far here in Edinburgh, that has now been scuppered by a sea breeze from the ENE.

The temperatures at their peak at 1pm this afternoon, reached 26ºC at Edinburgh Airport and 25.2ºC at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh. As at 2pm, the temperature at Edinburgh Gogarbank was 26.4ºC. That is enough to make today the hottest day of this month so far at all three of my local station, and the joint hottest day of the year so far at Edinburgh Airport.

Rather frustratingly though, that sea breeze has not only resulted in the temperatures refusing to rise any further at two of my three local stations, but has actually caused the temperature to drop to 24ºC at Edinburgh Airport and 23.2ºC at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh despite the much warmer than average SSTs in the North Sea just now.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

SJV
26 July 2018 13:49:41
28C here in Sheffield. Clouds have cleared somewhat over the last half hour. Hoping we can nudge 30C but developing showers/ storms to the south likely to scupper our chances.
Sevendust
26 July 2018 13:51:08

date record broken today

LeedsLad123
26 July 2018 19:06:39
Had a max of 31.3C. Tomorrow could reach 30C too.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
26 July 2018 20:18:58


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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johncs2016
26 July 2018 20:32:30

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

"Rain and cooler weather are on the way in the coming days."

Then no doubt, that will be it for our summer as any further build of high pressure is in the unreliable time frame of the model output just now.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

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