The Weather Outlook

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Snow Hoper
23 July 2018 11:15:41

Broom’s Barn in Suffolk has the longest spell so far with no rain (based on official stations). Total days with no rain is 45 up to Friday. Last rain was on 5 June.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Probably would have been the same here had it not been for a rogue thunderstorm at around 6am that pushed up from the S/E. This was on the 10th and was very brief and localised. Produced 0.6mm and remains the last measurable rainfall so far.


Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
23 July 2018 11:35:12

Probably would have been the same here had it not been for a rogue thunderstorm at around 6am that pushed up from the S/E. This was on the 10th and was very brief and localised. Produced 0.6mm and remains the last measurable rainfall so far.

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 

 Yes, you can’t be too far from the Broom’s Barn station so it shows how localised some of the rain has been.  I doubt many live close enough to an official station that records exactly the same conditions as they’ve had.  I’m betting my closest station has recorded more than I’ve actually had. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Argyle77
23 July 2018 11:49:11
No rain here for like seems months,not a single drop this month .
sforzando
23 July 2018 12:46:39
46 days and counting in Cambridge.
Easternpromise
23 July 2018 13:11:52

 

Probably would have been the same here had it not been for a rogue thunderstorm at around 6am that pushed up from the S/E. This was on the 10th and was very brief and localised. Produced 0.6mm and remains the last measurable rainfall so far.

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 

I'm literally just up the road from SnowHoper and we had a 15 minute heavy shower on the 16th July but missed the one on the 10th. Definately very localised showers


Location: Yaxley, Suffolk
Stormchaser
23 July 2018 13:26:07

So my total last month was bang on the SE average, not often that happens.

This month so far has been drier than that region, though, at 0.7 mm to date.

 

Today is the first since the Sunday before last to bring very clear skies, though yesterday wasn't far off - just a bit hazy. It makes a difference to the grass; during the run of cloudier days (with sea breeze boundaries often making it particularly cloudy right here) it actually greened up slightly, particularly on the verges where the grass was left a bit longer after mowing back at the start of June (I should have left it all a bit longer!), but yesterday turned the tide and today it's looking very bleached again.

No lawn mowing in over 1 and a half months anywhere around here. The lack of related hums and buzzes has been a bonus side effect of this drought!


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2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Arcus
23 July 2018 13:35:11

So my total last month was bang on the SE average, not often that happens.

This month so far has been drier than that region, though, at 0.7 mm to date.

 

Today is the first since the Sunday before last to bring very clear skies, though yesterday wasn't far off - just a bit hazy. It makes a difference to the grass; during the run of cloudier days (with sea breeze boundaries often making it particularly cloudy right here) it actually greened up slightly, particularly on the verges where the grass was left a bit longer after mowing back at the start of June (I should have left it all a bit longer!), but yesterday turned the tide and today it's looking very bleached again.

No lawn mowing in over 1 and a half months anywhere around here. The lack of related hums and buzzes has been a bonus side effect of this drought!

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

I'm thinking the silver lining to any potential hosepipe ban would have a similar reason.


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
23 July 2018 14:28:24

For me this summer now exceeds 1976 in terms of low/no rainfall. The local rivers are starting to show it too with a report of the EA having to rescue trout and salmon parr from a local chalk stream that will soon dry up. There is a maize field nearly that is now flowering at a very reduced height and is beginning to dry out prematurely. A salad leaf business is still operating and the irrigation system working hard. Spring sown cereal crops though are very poor with most harvests of autumn sown cereals complete or under way. A record perhaps in itself.

The fire risk must be extremely high for the Wessex heath lands and pine forests and I assume it is only a matter of time before some dickhead begins a mega blaze.

 

 

 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

The Beast from the East
23 July 2018 15:10:47

 it is only a matter of time before some dickhead begins a mega blaze.

 

 

 

Originally Posted by: NMA 

Some of the local chavs round here have been doing their best to start grass fires in parks etc. Coppers don't seem interested and if you try and approach the toe rags you will probably get beaten up

This country is f*cked


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 July 2018 15:14:04

For me this summer now exceeds 1976 in terms of low/no rainfall. The local rivers are starting to show it too with a report of the EA having to rescue trout and salmon parr from a local chalk stream that will soon dry up. There is a maize field nearly that is now flowering at a very reduced height and is beginning to dry out prematurely. A salad leaf business is still operating and the irrigation system working hard. Spring sown cereal crops though are very poor with most harvests of autumn sown cereals complete or under way. A record perhaps in itself.

The fire risk must be extremely high for the Wessex heath lands and pine forests and I assume it is only a matter of time before some dickhead begins a mega blaze. 

Originally Posted by: NMA 

Essex harvests in 1976 were mostly complete by the end of July, too


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Stormchaser
23 July 2018 15:14:16

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/heatwave-continues-with-temperatures-into-the-mid-30s-celsius

 

The latest Met Office blog update has reminded me that they class a dry day as one with less than 1 mm (very sensible if you ask me).

By that measure I'm on 53 days and counting, assuming nothing (extremely) unexpected happens today. That's only one behind the leading Met Office sites.

I can't compete with their minuscule rainfall totals though; I'm a whole 1 mm above the wettest in that list (High Wycombe). Not that you'd know from looking around outside .

 

No doubt that this summer exceeds 1976 very widely in terms of rainfall shortage. In fact that summer was 10 to 20 times wetter up to this point in many areas (and a whole lot more in some of this year' driest spots but of course, this is increasingly meaningless as the denominator falls toward zero).

The reason conditions were so much worse in terms of water supplies back then was the extraordinarily long run of drier-to-much-drier-than-average months preceding it - including, most importantly, a very dry autumn and winter.

For example, my nearest Met Office site for 1975-76 versus my local readings for 2017-18:

Oct 13.5 mm (exceptionally dry) v. 37.4 mm (very dry for the time of year)
Nov 57.5 mm (dry) v. 54.4 mm (dry)
Dec 24.0 mm (very dry) v. 90.7 mm (near average)
Jan 12.7 mm (exceptionally dry) v. 61.3 mm (dry for the time of year)
Feb 29.2 mm (dry even for the time of year) v. 32.6 mm (dry even for the time of year)
Mar 30.3 mm (dry even for the time of year) v. 123.8 mm (extremely wet for the time of year - in fact the wettest since at least 1957!)
Apr   7.4 mm (very dry even for the time of year) v. 81.6 mm (very wet for the time of year)
May 26.1 mm (dry) v. 39.2 mm (quite dry).

 

Those are some huge differences in each of Dec, Jan, Mar and Apr. 

So 1975-76 was a bit like if this year had seen last year's Mar-Apr instead of the snowy+soggy reality, and having followed a winter of a dryness that we've not witnessed since 1991 as opposed to one that was merely a bit drier than average.

 

Yet even with all that going for 1975-76, the sheer lack of rainfall within the summer season itself likely means that the agricultural/surface soils level of the drought is even worse now than it ever was back then - hence the increasingly stressed state of much of our wildlife.

The water table wasn't faring too badly until 1-2 weeks ago, but has since started dropping away at an alarming rate, with river levels generally following suit, so it may yet surpass the worst of summer 1976 as well.

For the south, it's only the impressive ability of aquifers to retain water from the winter and spring that's preventing equally severe impacts on the human population.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
23 July 2018 15:22:31

Very true Stormchaser. I hope we are not sleepwalking into a major catastrophe with the Govt bogged down in Brexit and ignoring what is perhaps one of the greatest natural UK weather events any of us have experienced.

And DEW yes the harvest what it was in 1976 was to all intents complete by this time of year.

Wildlife in our garden consists largely of sparrows that are becoming tame as they fly in for water and surprisingly food in the form of sandwich bits by my feet, something they normally would not contemplate.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

The Beast from the East
23 July 2018 15:37:14

Is there a danger to foundations of houses etc. I heard there were issues in 76?

I'm assuming its still quite damp when you dig down so perhaps not an issue this time

 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
23 July 2018 15:43:47
On clay shrinking soils maybe. Not on sand or gravel.

The fire potential is certainly causing concern here.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

LeedsLad123
23 July 2018 15:45:08

Very true Stormchaser. I hope we are not sleepwalking into a major catastrophe with the Govt bogged down in Brexit and ignoring what is perhaps one of the greatest natural UK weather events any of us have experienced.

And DEW yes the harvest what it was in 1976 was to all intents complete by this time of year.

Wildlife in our garden consists largely of sparrows that are becoming tame as they fly in for water and surprisingly food in the form of sandwich bits by my feet, something they normally would not contemplate.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

My bird feeder is being swarmed from dawn to dusk, especially by sparrows and starlings. We also had 8 magpies in the garden this morning, feeding on the suet pellets I put out. Things usually become quiet at this time of year bird-wise but it's hard for them to find much at the moment. 


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
andy-manc
23 July 2018 15:46:43

30 hours since any rain. Have to start somewhere 

Joe Bloggs
23 July 2018 15:52:07

Doesn't seem quite as parched up here since the absolute torrent we had on Friday afternoon.

So far in July we've had 12.4mm (Rostherne) . Not a lot at all for Manchester standards but enough to make a slight difference.

xioni2
23 July 2018 15:56:06

For me this summer now exceeds 1976 in terms of low/no rainfall. 

Originally Posted by: NMA 

Pretty likely that 2018 will smash 1976 and 1995 in terms of high pressure, especially if we include May. 

SEMerc
23 July 2018 16:13:48

This says it all. 1961 is the current benchmak

SEMerc
23 July 2018 16:29:34

Just in case this hasn't already been posted.

From the Met.

We classify less than 1.0mm of rain in a day as a ‘dry day’. Using this threshold, several sites have had 54 consecutive dry days (starting 30 May), including a few which have had less than 1mm in the entire 54 day period. 

The sites and their total rainfall over the 54 days are:

  • Heathrow (0.4 mm)
  • Hampton Water works (0.6 mm)
  • Kenley Airfield (1.0 mm)
  • Cambridge NIAB (1.0 mm)
  • Cavendish (1.6 mm)
  • High Wycombe (1.8 mm)

Shoreham Airport is close behind with 53 consecutive days of less than 1mm of rain.

Church Lawford has had 52 consecutive dry days starting on 1 June.

The longest run of days with no rain at all this summer so far is 48 days at Brooms Barn, near Bury St Edmunds, since 5 June.  Also most of our observing sites in East Anglia have had no rain at all since 21 June.

Stolen Snowman
23 July 2018 21:18:10

Cycled past Carsington Water today expecting to see a cracked and muddy wilderness but to my surprise it’s still relatively full - albeit with an obvious tide mark along the dam. 


Statistics prove that the period just after records began witnessed some of the most extreme weather ever recorded. Records were being broken on a frequency that has not been repeated since.

Posting live from a pub somewhere in Burton upon Trent

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 July 2018 06:13:18

Cycled past Carsington Water today expecting to see a cracked and muddy wilderness but to my surprise it’s still relatively full - albeit with an obvious tide mark along the dam. 

Originally Posted by: Stolen Snowman 

Isn't Carsington fed by groundwater from the limestone just to its north? So unaffected by recent drought after a good recharge in Mar/Apr.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

KevBrads1
24 July 2018 12:05:40

Exceptionally dry June-July periods for England and Wales (<60mm)

1800: 35.8

1868: 36.5

1976: 48.8

1921: 39.6

1995: 57.8

1887: 58.9

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

About 25mm up to 22nd July


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

bradders
24 July 2018 17:02:22

 

Some of the local chavs round here have been doing their best to start grass fires in parks etc. Coppers don't seem interested and if you try and approach the toe rags you will probably get beaten up

This country is f*cked

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

The country is indeed f*cked, it`s the wife and myself`s favourite saying. I`m glad in a way that I`m in my mid 70s and probably havn`t got that many more years to live. 

I feel sorry for my grandchildren as they will have to live in this shithole for probably another 80 years.


Eric. Cheadle Hulme, Stockport.

bradders
24 July 2018 17:13:19

Is there a danger to foundations of houses etc. I heard there were issues in 76?

I'm assuming its still quite damp when you dig down so perhaps not an issue this time

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

There is a problem with our foundations, we had problems in 1976 and we have problems again now. In 76 we had to have bracing rods installed to reinforce the building. Only this week I have noticed a crack between the house and the front porch.

Of course it`s because we live in an area with clay soils that shrink in drought conditions.


Eric. Cheadle Hulme, Stockport.

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