Even the best summers aren't wall-to-wall sunshine for 92 days!

Reached an important threshold now.  This part of the equation (sunshine hours/67 - rain/8) will be a + value regardless if the rest of summer records an official rain day for everyday and each day returns zero sunshine hrs. 

Summers in order with the best at the top and the worst at the bottom 

1976 301
1995 298
2018 281 (up to 19th July)
1983 278
1955 277
1911 274
1984 271
1959 269
1975 268
1949 267
1989 262
2013 260 
1947 255
1933 251
1901 249
1921 249
2003 247
1925 246
2006 246
1996 245
1935 243 
2014 242
1994 240
1934 238
1940 238
1941 236
1970 235
1969 234
1973 234
1999 234
1997 232
1990 229
1917 228
1926 227
2005 224
1905 223
1932 223
1945 223
1967 223
1977 223
1914 222
1992 222
1908 220
1960 217
1950 216
1957 216
1968 215
1906 214
1942 214
1937 213
1939 213
1904 212
1929 211
2001 211
1903 209
1943 209
1991 207
1913 205
1971 205
1919 203
1961 203
1982 203
1951 201
1918 200
1944 200
2002 200
1930 199
1974 199
1979 199
1952 198
2000 198
1928 197
1962 197
1964 197
2004 197
1915 196
1981 196
1902 195
1963 194
1993 194
2009 194
1953 193
1966 192
1998 192
2015 192
2017 192

192 <-----------------------------------------if the rest of the summer records a mean max of 15C, zero sunshine, rain everyday

1988 191
2010 191
1910 190
1936 190
2016 189
1965 189
1986 189
1916 188
1972 185
1958 184
1985 180
2011 179
1922 178
1938 177
1948 176
1927 175
1920 174
1923 174
2007 174
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
1909 171
1946 170
1987 169
2008 168
2012 164
1924 158
1912 156
1956 155
1907 147
1954 143

Only 20 left to top 1976 so come on summer 2018 keep it going to reach 302 or more!

June mean max was 18.8 and rainfall 51mm which is not far off normal.

July however has been a bit warmer with a mean max of 21.3 so far and only 5mm of rain before today's rain. Fairly cloudy though.

Compared to July 2006, which was exceptionally sunny, July 2018 has been fairly cloudy. Leeming is on 90% of the monthly average, might end up a bit above average but not by much (if at all). 

Average max for here is 25.5C. July 2006 was 26C.

Not sure I would agree with that. Using data to the 19th, we should be at 60% of the mean sunshine for the month. So 90% is actually 50% above average. So your data does not support your argument.

A quick scan UK wide shows just about everywhere is above 60%. Lerwick is at 63% which is the lowest figure I have. 

Heathrow is at 102%, Belfast Aldergrove 112%, Aberdeen Dyce 82%, RAF Valley 116%.

Many other places are around the 90% figure you quote.

I have no idea what point you're trying to make. Leeming is on 90% of the monthly average - i.e Leeming has an average of 183.0 hours hours of sun in July and it has recorded 90% of that i.e 163.8.

But your not comparing like with like. It's only the 20th July today, so only two thirds way through the month. Is the Leeming average of 183.0 hours for the whole month? If it's up to 20th July then fair enough but if not you know the obvious.

No, it's the average for the whole month, and Leeming has 90% of the monthly average up to the 19th. 

The point I'm making, and I thought it was obvious, is that based on where we are so far in the month, July 2018 will be far below July 2006 in the sun stakes. I don't see a great deal of sun in the forecast. July 2006 had 280 to 320 hours of sun as per Met Office data and unless we get a lot of sun over the next 10 days we're not going to get anywhere near that.

I'm not trying to compare the sunshine hours for 20 days of July 2018 to the whole month of July 2006 - I'm saying that this month will almost certainly end up duller, and certainly duller than what you'd expect for such a warm, dry month.

June this year wasn't very sunny until the final 10 days either, but the final 10 days of that month were exceptionally sunny.

https://weather.com/en-GB/unitedkingdom/weather/news/2018-07-19-uk-news-sweden-wildfires-norway-finland-record-heatwave 

Down here, this month has 'survived' the more changeable, less reliably toasty period without the mean temp dropping out of the 20s *C.

In fact, with today having made the mid-20s again, it looks like the lowest point of the mean will be 20.3*C which was also the value to the end of yesterday. 

With further quite hot days to come but with the next few coupled with some milder nights, and signs that by the late stages of the week it will either be quite hot to hot by day or unusually warm by night and still very warm by day (that's GFS v. ECM takes on things as of this morning), it seems highly likely that the mean will spend most or all of the period climbing, even if only very slowly at times.

I realise it's by no means certain yet as for all I know, the ridge for next weekend could bring much fresher air down from the north via northeast, but at the moment that's an outsider among the ensemble guidance.

A finish in the 20s would be the first for July since at least 1956 (as I have records starting 1957), and the first for any month since the legendary August of 1983. That month had a final mean of 20.1*C so this July only has to be two tenths into the 20s to win the 'hottest of all months' trophy.

That this is conceivable in a month that's not yet got into the 31s here really says something for persistence of unusually warm conditions over having an exceptionally hot spell of weather - though astonishingly enough, this month may yet manage to have both...

It would be interesting to know if any of the precursors to this summer were evident in previous similar ones such as 1995, 1976 and 1959.

Clearly a blocked and hot summer happens on occasions but are there similar building blocks on every occasion?

The SSW event has been cited with the current HLB as also has low solar activity. I was wondering if anyone much better qualified than me has looked into this?

if so perhaps it was possible to see it coming...

No heat drama here, looks like a SE England thing as usual

Manchester Summer Indices

Summers in order with the best at the top and the worst at the bottom 

1976 301
1995 298
2018 281 (up to 23rd July)
1983 278
1955 277
1911 274
1984 271
1959 269
1975 268
1949 267
1989 262
1947 255
1933 251
1901 249
1921 249
2003 247
2013 247
1925 246
2006 246
1996 245
1935 243 
1994 240
1934 238
1940 238
1941 236
2014 236
1970 235
1969 234
1973 234
1999 234
1997 232
1990 229
1917 228
1926 227
2005 224
1905 223
1932 223
1945 223
1967 223
1977 223
1914 222
1992 222
1908 220
1960 217
1950 216
1957 216
1968 215
1906 214
1942 214
1937 213
1939 213
1904 212
1929 211
2001 211
1903 209
1943 209
1991 207
1913 205
1971 205
1919 203
1961 203
1982 203
1951 201
1918 200
1944 200
2002 200
200 <-------------------if the rest of summer has a mean max of 15.0C, zero sunshine and rain everyday

Met Office forecasting 36°C in the South East on Friday. We could be threatening the July record if that's the case (36.7°C at Heathrow on 1 July 2015).

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1021703789349228545

For the past few days it’s been steady as she goes in Manchester then Kev!   Here’s hoping you get some of the forecast heat and sunshine to boost that figure!  

We passed “good” for the season as a whole after the first few warm days of July, and “very good” as soon as it became clear July would be at least a 17.5C month. Now in late July we are also comfortably in the “memorable” category alongside 1975, 1983, 1989, 1990, 2003, 2006, 2013.

I would say a 19C July plus a hot first week and a half of August that makes a 17.5C+ month probable, and this becomes one of the all time greats.

How about “greatest”? Would take something to top 1976 with its 12 month drought build up, but I think one of two things could do it.

1. Summer season being both the hottest and driest on record, or

2. A warm sunny September, which both 1976 and 1995 failed to deliver

IMO May-July this year is better than 76 and 95 both in terms of high pressure anomalies and actual weather: extremely dry, very sunny, lack of extreme heat, high max but not very high min, relatively low humidity and lack of unsettled spells.

The CET is significantly less relevant to me.

Obviously Aug will determine the final outcome, but it looks good! 

Stretching it a bit, July looks like it will finish with a CET above 19C, imagine if August was to do the same? Two 19C summer months in the same summer, when there would have only been five of them in recorded history anyway!

it will be very interesting to see where July ends up - should be about 19.5C now. That means August only needs to be 17.0C or over to break 1976 record.