Yet just 38 miles away here in Leeds, a max of 24C so far.

If the second half of the month average at least 17.2C, then it will be the warmest July in my records. Looks pretty likely, to be honest.

Thanks for the words of appreciation 

For what it's worth, a slightly cooler remainder of this week but warmer rest of the month sees a similar final CET estimate from the GFS 06z of today to that of the GFS 12z yesterday. My estimates are more rough-handed than Simon's though - his are the best quality. All I really offer is some slight bias adjustment (not as much as I could do if I was feeling bold!).

I do sense that we could have a go at getting into the low-mid 19s if the potential for a trough to drop down fully west of Europe with a decent ridge to the east materialises; there's some serious heat over N. Africa that's been setting local records in recent times - and we have those dry soils increasing the potential maximums (and which would not affect minimums as much in a humid airmass; I had an overnight low in the 18s during the brief very humid spell at the beginning of the month!).

p.s. ECM has slightly higher day max temperatures for next week and it also has a habit of underestimating. Just sayin' 

Yes, Simon always gives a more scientific/mathematic view and he’s good at it!   You’re not so bad though either!  

I think it could well push over 19c.  I don’t think for a moment this heat is going to let go any time soon!  Gut feeling and memories of 1976!   

The output has definitely trended a little warmer today. Latest estimate is 18.97C by the 30th. That could easily be 0.1-0.2C on the low side. So I would say there is now a greater than 50% chance the CET will finish above 19C. Plenty of time for the model output to change of course (in either direction).

Day  4  of the same CET from Met Office  Hadley. No doubt a change tomorrow.

Met Office Hadley       19.6c      Anomaly    3.7c. Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                    19.45c    Anomaly    2.99c

Netweather                 19.83c    Anomaly    3.34c

Clevedon Weather 21.2c       Anomaly      2.72c

Hexam                      18.4c      Anomaly      2.1c

Mansfield Woodhouse 18.8c      Anomaly      0.8c 

Peasedown St John 21.86c    Anomaly      3.32c

Treviskey Redruth  18.3c      Anomaly    0.84c.

Mean of My Watched 10 Stations   19.97c.     

I’m recording daily minima at around 5am and this morning was about 2c lower than yesterday morning.

Somebody remind me again.  When it says provisional to 16th, does that 24 hour period end at 0900 this morning, July 17th?  Or does it mean up to 0900 on the 16th?

Might be midnight to midnight... 

I believe it means up to 2100 on the 16th. There is always one more maximum than minimum, I think? Maxima are for 0900-2100 and minima for 2100-0900. GW will know.

I know we’ve discussed this many times so I don’t know why on earth I can’t remember!  I’ll put it down to being an age thing!   

You are quite right Caz. Both the maximum and minimum are for a 24 hour period ending on 0900z. The latest data therefore covers the 24 hours to 09z today. 

The maximum temperature data is always “thrown back” to represent the previous day. So the data for the 24hrs to 09z today is for the 16th. The minimum is not thrown back so is for the 17th. Therefore there is one more minimum reading than maximum reading at any point in the month which you can see if you look at the maximum and minimum data separately. 

However the mean data has to include the maximum and minimum covering the same date. Hence the mean data currently runs up to the 16th and I assume does not therefore include this morning’s minimum.

Hopefully that makes sense. It is a bit complicated. 

Slightly off topic but if you were wondering where all the cold weather has gone while the UK has been experiencing heatwave and drought conditions, the east of Canada has been very cold. St Johns in Newfoundland, where I currently am, recorded it’s coldest June on record with a mean maximum temperature of just 10.9C. On 26 June some parts of Newfoundland were shovelling snow. So we are seeing cold as well as warm records being broken at the moment.

The last couple of days have been much warmer with temperatures into the 20’s and very humid. Plenty of rain as well as thick sea fog caused by the remnants of ex Chris and ex Beryl bringing warm moist air north which has clashed with the cold Labrador Sea currents. The locals are well used to it though. They wear shorts and t-shirts in all weather and only tourists use umbrellas!

I have to say I am enjoying the break from the heat in the UK which is too much for me.

Well it did all make sense until you said this morning’s minimum isn’t included!  Because this morning’s minimum was around 5am, which comes before 9am!     I’m sure Hadley do this just to confuse!    

I knew it had been cold there but I didn't realise it had been that cold. Good grief!

I will never complain about the UK's climate again. 

Slight drop today,but heat returns the weekend. 

Met Office Hadley          19.4c.     Anomaly     3.5c.   Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                       19.37c     Anomaly     2.90c

Netweather                    19.72c     Anomaly     3.22c

Alton                             19.6c.      Anomaly      1.3c

Clevedon Weather           21.1c      Anomaly       2.62c

Mansfield Woodhouse 18.8c       Anomaly    0.8c

Peasedown St John  21.64c   Anomaly  3.1c

Treviskey Redruth  18.4c     Anomaly   0.94c.

Mean Of 10 Stations  19.84c.

I believe a perfect verification of the GFS 06z would place the final CET in the 19s. 

If we saw the exact pattern sequence but with the usual underestimated maximums I expect we'd end up challenging 2006's record.

A big if, to say the least. ECM 00z showed how even with the trough staying out west, the advection of heat might not work out quite right for a strong hit on the UK, at least not within the 10 day period.

The GFS 12z offers a chance to consider what might happen if the blocking high develops in a near-optimal position for maximising the temperatures we see.

My loose estimates from that run suggest that final CET would be in the range of 19.6 to 20.1*C, depending on how much underestimation of temperatures really still applies during such an extreme setup as it has days 9-12.

Meanwhile my local mean, using precise raw numbers but following my own interpretation for tomorrow and Friday (which is a couple of degrees above GFS by day), finishes at a whopping great 21.0*C under that scenario.

The mind boggles. 

Yes it is truly remarkable that the models are even showing such a scenario!  The fact the CET has been above 19c all month in itself is amazing.  I think a small drop before it goes back up!  But how high will it go?  

I just had a thought. Is it possible we've all guessed too low?  

My CET estimate, now covering the whole of July, continues to creep up. 

Latest figure is 19.08C. As ever this is likely to be an underestimate given the tendency of the models to understate maximum temperatures. 

The probability of exceeding the record 19.7C is increasing but still quite a bit less than 50% I would say at this point.

I did consider myself a little mad to suggest a figure of 20.1C for the July competition. I'm not so sure my suggestion is now quite as mad after all?