The Weather Outlook

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KevBrads1
16 July 2018 14:58:24

Summers in order with the best at the top and the worst at the bottom 

1976 301
1995 298
2018 281 (up to 15th July)
1983 278
1955 277
1911 274
1984 271
1959 269
1975 268
1949 267
1989 262
2013 260
1947 255
1933 251
1901 249
1921 249
2003 247
1925 246
2006 246
1996 245
1935 243
2014 242
1994 240
1934 238
1940 238
1941 236
1970 235
1969 234
1973 234
1999 234
1997 232
1990 229
1917 228
1926 227
2005 224
1905 223
1932 223
1945 223
1967 223
1977 223
1914 222
1992 222
1908 220
1960 217
1950 216
1957 216
1968 215
1906 214
1942 214
1937 213
1939 213
1904 212
1929 211
2001 211
1903 209
1943 209
1991 207
1913 205
1971 205
1919 203
1961 203
1982 203
1951 201
1918 200
1944 200
2002 200
1930 199
1974 199
1979 199
1952 198
2000 198
1928 197
1962 197
1964 197
2004 197
1915 196
1981 196
1902 195
1963 194
1993 194
2009 194
1953 193
1966 192
1998 192
2015 192
2017 192
1988 191
2010 191
1910 190
1936 190
2016 189
1965 189
1986 189
1916 188
1972 185
1958 184
183<------------if the rest of summer 2018 returns zero sunshine, mean max of 15C and rain everyday
1985 180
2011 179
1922 178
1938 177
1948 176
1927 175
1920 174
1923 174
2007 174
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
1909 171
1946 170
1987 169
2008 168
2012 164
1924 158
1912 156
1956 155
1907 147
1954 143

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
16 July 2018 15:38:24

At this rate I'll be exchanging the car for a camel 

I don't think I've seen any kind of proper rain for about 5/6 weeks, back to when we had all that Flooding 

Originally Posted by: Jonesy 

A camel!    I’m loving your signature Jonesy!  A lovely tribute to Dougie!  

Anyway, it’s 29c here.  I’ve just got back from blood donors and two people passed out due to the heat while I was there. They have a battery of fans in the room trying to cool it down and they’re making donors take longer rests before letting them leave.  More biscuits!  

 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Saint Snow
16 July 2018 15:48:23

Summers in order with the best at the top and the worst at the bottom 

1976 301
1995 298
2018 281 (up to 15th July)
1983 278
1955 277
1911 274
1984 271
1959 269
1975 268
1949 267
1989 262
2013 260
1947 255
1933 251
1901 249
1921 249
2003 247
1925 246
2006 246
1996 245
1935 243
2014 242
1994 240
1934 238
1940 238
1941 236
1970 235
1969 234
1973 234
1999 234
1997 232
1990 229
1917 228
1926 227
2005 224
1905 223
1932 223
1945 223
1967 223
1977 223
1914 222
1992 222
1908 220
1960 217
1950 216
1957 216
1968 215
1906 214
1942 214
1937 213
1939 213
1904 212
1929 211
2001 211
1903 209
1943 209
1991 207
1913 205
1971 205
1919 203
1961 203
1982 203
1951 201
1918 200
1944 200
2002 200
1930 199
1974 199
1979 199
1952 198
2000 198
1928 197
1962 197
1964 197
2004 197
1915 196
1981 196
1902 195
1963 194
1993 194
2009 194
1953 193
1966 192
1998 192
2015 192
2017 192
1988 191
2010 191
1910 190
1936 190
2016 189
1965 189
1986 189
1916 188
1972 185
1958 184
183<------------if the rest of summer 2018 returns zero sunshine, mean max of 15C and rain everyday
1985 180
2011 179
1922 178
1938 177
1948 176
1927 175
1920 174
1923 174
2007 174
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
1909 171
1946 170
1987 169
2008 168
2012 164
1924 158
1912 156
1956 155
1907 147
1954 143

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

 

The cluster of 2007-2012 towards the bottom doesn't surprise me.

Having 2015/16/17 all pretty low (and each closely scored with the others) does. In 2016 especially I thought we'd had some decent spells (although, thinking back, one of those spells I remember was when we were in Devon! Could have been much different up here)

 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
16 July 2018 16:24:20

 

The cluster of 2007-2012 towards the bottom doesn't surprise me.

Having 2015/16/17 all pretty low (and each closely scored with the others) does. In 2016 especially I thought we'd had some decent spells (although, thinking back, one of those spells I remember was when we were in Devon! Could have been much different up here)

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

No, I didn’t think we had a bad summer 2017 either but perhaps that’s because we’ve had worse ones in recent years.  We managed to get the family round for outdoor eating on a few warm Saturday nights last year!   But again, I’m further South than Manchester and it could have been very different for you up there. 

Anyway, Kev’s stats are fantastic!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Nick Gilly
16 July 2018 18:23:12
Just looking at Trevor Harley's excellent pages for comparison with other hot summers and there seems to be a bit of confusion about the CET for June 1976. The June 1976 entry states that it was 16.5C, but the June 2018 entry, comparing this June with other hot ones, states it was 17.0C. So which one is it?
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
16 July 2018 18:29:45

Just looking at Trevor Harley's excellent pages for comparison with other hot summers and there seems to be a bit of confusion about the CET for June 1976. The June 1976 entry states that it was 16.5C, but the June 2018 entry, comparing this June with other hot ones, states it was 17.0C. So which one is it?

Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly 

The Met Office quote it as 17.0C.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Nick Gilly
16 July 2018 19:02:22

 

The Met Office quote it as 17.0C.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

Originally Posted by: Col 

 

Thanks Col. That is quite a difference!

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
16 July 2018 19:47:13
I think the 1995 summer is the one to compare this with. 1976 will never be comparable, for a few reasons:

- 1976 came after a dry summer, winter and spring and we were already in severe hydrological drought by the time the heatwave started. By contrast winter 1994/5 was relatively wet

- 1995 summer was the driest on record. At the moment that seems a more likely than any CET record

- From what I can see the synoptic patterns are more 1995-like than 1976. 1995 saw repeated northern ridging and the North of the country saw some of the best weather. Europe was not that hot. In 1976 France was also record dry

- I remember 1995. I don’t remember 1976...

In a bear case scenario I could see us coming close to 1995. It would need to remain very dry in August though. In a poor August scenario this summer would be up with 2006, albeit different. Possibly 1989 too.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
17 July 2018 05:07:11

I think the 1995 summer is the one to compare this with. 1976 will never be comparable, for a few reasons:

- 1976 came after a dry summer, winter and spring and we were already in severe hydrological drought by the time the heatwave started. By contrast winter 1994/5 was relatively wet
- 1995 summer was the driest on record. At the moment that seems a more likely than any CET record
- From what I can see the synoptic patterns are more 1995-like than 1976. 1995 saw repeated northern ridging and the North of the country saw some of the best weather. Europe was not that hot. In 1976 France was also record dry
- I remember 1995. I don’t remember 1976...

In a bear case scenario I could see us coming close to 1995. It would need to remain very dry in August though. In a poor August scenario this summer would be up with 2006, albeit different. Possibly 1989 too.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

From what I remember, 1975 was a decent summer as well. I wonder how this year compares with that and whether 2019 will be the 1976 of this century?  A bit premature I know but it’s just a thought. 

On the other hand, remembering the fantastic late winter we’ve just had and the SST effect, can we compare this year’s weather overall to any other year?  It’s proving to be a remarkable year!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Broadmayne Blizzard
17 July 2018 05:36:27
Though temps have fallen short of the dizzy hieghts of 1976. The drought in terms of summer months is more than matching it so far here at Broadmayne I have recorded just half a millimetre of rain in the last 47 days.!!
Formerly Blizzard of 78
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
17 July 2018 06:30:07

Though temps have fallen short of the dizzy hieghts of 1976. The drought in terms of summer months is more than matching it so far here at Broadmayne I have recorded just half a millimetre of rain in the last 47 days.!!

Originally Posted by: Broadmayne Blizzard 

Some rainfall stats in an interesting comparison between 1995 and 1976 below:

https://www.parliament.uk/documents/post/pn071.pdf

 

 

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
17 July 2018 06:39:27
The landscape around here looks just like the photos I’ve seen of summer 1976 (I wasn’t born then but I live in the same house my parents were in then). Lawns and grass verges have passed the brown and yellow stages and are now bleached almost white.

We narrowly escaped the storms last week and the last rain here was June 17, IIRC (it definitely rained that morning as it was the day after a garden party and we couldn’t pack away the gazebo as it was wet). So that’s exactly a month now.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

KevBrads1
17 July 2018 06:54:07

I think the 1995 summer is the one to compare this with. 1976 will never be comparable, for a few reasons:

- 1976 came after a dry summer, winter and spring and we were already in severe hydrological drought by the time the heatwave started. By contrast winter 1994/5 was relatively wet
- 1995 summer was the driest on record. At the moment that seems a more likely than any CET record
- From what I can see the synoptic patterns are more 1995-like than 1976. 1995 saw repeated northern ridging and the North of the country saw some of the best weather. Europe was not that hot. In 1976 France was also record dry
- I remember 1995. I don’t remember 1976...

In a bear case scenario I could see us coming close to 1995. It would need to remain very dry in August though. In a poor August scenario this summer would be up with 2006, albeit different. Possibly 1989 too.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

I point out that the first half of this summer was more like 1976 than 1995 though. 

At this stage of the summer, we didn't realise just how good summer 1995 was going to turn out. Summer 1995 had a better second half than Summer 1976 and Summer 1976 had a better first half than Summer 1995.

The only first half of summer that we can compare to this one of recent times is 1976 in terms of how good it has been.

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
17 July 2018 13:14:00
Funny how “chilly” 24C feels today in central London. Almost wishing I’d brought a jacket.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
17 July 2018 13:16:33

 

I point out that the first half of this summer was more like 1976 than 1995 though. 

At this stage of the summer, we didn't realise just how good summer 1995 was going to turn out. Summer 1995 had a better second half than Summer 1976 and Summer 1976 had a better first half than Summer 1995.

The only first half of summer that we can compare to this one of recent times is 1976 in terms of how good it has been.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

True. The main thing though is the hydrological context. By this point in 76 we were in a national emergency and people were putting bricks in cisterns and sharing baths. 1995 started with full reservoirs and wet soil, and dried out.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Gusty
17 July 2018 13:27:12

 I point out that the first half of this summer was more like 1976 than 1995 though. 

At this stage of the summer, we didn't realise just how good summer 1995 was going to turn out. Summer 1995 had a better second half than Summer 1976 and Summer 1976 had a better first half than Summer 1995.

The only first half of summer that we can compare to this one of recent times is 1976 in terms of how good it has been.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

Get next week's heatwave under the belt followed by a CET of 19c + and momentum will really start to ramp up with regard to talk and the drawing of comparisons with 1976. 

Assuming we end up with a July CET of 19.2 we would need an August CET of 18.0c + to take the title. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

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Bolty
  • Bolty
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 July 2018 13:27:25
For most people, this must now be the best summer since 1995. I'm only nearly 21, and it's by far the best summer I can remember, and I even remember as far back as 2003.

And this is without the second half of the summer!

Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
17 July 2018 13:39:10

Talking of ‘save water, bath with a friend’ and bricks in toilet cisterns to conserve water in 1976 reminded me of my favourite slogan.  ‘If it’s brown flush it down, if it’s yellow let it mellow’. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Gusty
17 July 2018 14:03:02

lol Caz 

I've done some more number crunching. Assuming a July 2018 CET of 19.2c we need the following.

To beat 2012 we need an August CET of greater than 10.4c .

To beat 1990 we need an August CET of greater than 14.1c

To beat 2006 we need an August CET of greater than 16.4c

To beat 2003 we need an August CET of greater than 16.7c

To beat 1995 we need an August CET of greater than 17.0c

To beat 1976 we need an August CET of greater than 18.0c

 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

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LeedsLad123
17 July 2018 15:25:57
So we could in theory beat 1976.. obviously not likely to happen though.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
speckledjim
17 July 2018 15:31:53
I know it's not summer but I wonder how the may-july period this year compares with previous such periods?
Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

Bolty
  • Bolty
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 July 2018 15:36:38

I know it's not summer but I wonder how the may-july period this year compares with previous such periods?

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

If it isn't on course to be by far the warmest May-July period on record, then I'd love to know what is!

Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

Gusty
17 July 2018 15:43:18

 If it isn't on course to be by far the warmest May-July period on record, then I'd love to know what is!

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

We would need a July CET of 18.6c or greater to beat that MJJ 1976 period. 

That should happen.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

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Bolty
  • Bolty
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 July 2018 15:57:59

 

We would need a July CET of 18.6c or greater to beat that MJJ 1976 period. 

That should happen.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

So fairly do-able then? Thanks Gusty

Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

KevBrads1
17 July 2018 16:17:03

For most people, this must now be the best summer since 1995. I'm only nearly 21, and it's by far the best summer I can remember, and I even remember as far back as 2003.

And this is without the second half of the summer!

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

But what if the second half of summer is poor?

I'm not saying this is going to be the best summer since 1995 until it is done and dusted with at the back end of August. I remember August 2006 which knocked the summer of 2006. 

Incidentally summer 2013 was the best summer since 1995 for the Manchester area. 2003 was never that good up here as it was further south.

Definitely the best first half of summer I can recall, this summer.

 

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

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