The Weather Outlook

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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
10 July 2018 15:48:20

Today is a cooler 23c but blue sky, sunshine and much more pleasant.  Still no sign of rain here though.  This will certainly go down as one of the better summers for me even if it goes downhill now, although what I’d hate is a long Autumn!


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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KevBrads1
14 July 2018 09:29:44

Manchester Summer Indices

1976 301
1995 298
1983 278
1955 277

2018 276 (up to 13th July)

1911 274
1984 271
1959 269
1975 268
1949 267
1989 262
2013 260 
1947 255
1933 251

If the rest of the summer starting from today recorded zero sunshine, a mean maximum of 15.0C and rain everyday, the index would drop to 173, which would still be above summers 2012 and 2008.

 

 

 

 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Bolty
  • Bolty
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
14 July 2018 10:10:55
Back to lovely warm sunshine today. I was getting bored of that cooler and wetter weather we had yesterday for a second.
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

Jiries
14 July 2018 10:20:50

Manchester Summer Indices

1976 301
1995 298
1983 278
1955 277

2018 276 (up to 13th July)

1911 274
1984 271
1959 269
1975 268
1949 267
1989 262
2013 260 
1947 255
1933 251

If the rest of the summer starting from today recorded zero sunshine, a mean maximum of 15.0C and rain everyday, the index would drop to 173, which would still be above summers 2012 and 2008.

 

 

 

 

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

What.about absolute max if this continue to end of August? Very interesting stats.

KevBrads1
14 July 2018 10:34:06

 

What.about absolute max if this continue to end of August? Very interesting stats.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

If the mean maximum stays as it now but we had zero sunshine and rain everyday, then the index would be 216. 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
14 July 2018 12:45:00
So what stats would you need for the next 6 weeks to beat 1976?
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
KevBrads1
14 July 2018 14:56:23

So what stats would you need for the next 6 weeks to beat 1976?

Originally Posted by: TimS 

If we sustain the current averages til the end of the meteorological summer then it will end up as 328.

 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

KevBrads1
15 July 2018 08:39:45

1976 301
1995 298
1983 278

2018 278 (up to 14th July)


1955 277
1911 274
1984 271
1959 269
1975 268

If the rest of summer had a mean max average of 15C, no sunshine and rain everyday then the index will end on 179

Ahead of summers 2007, 2008 and 2012 as recent examples.

Some of the sunshine totals figure since the start of May up to now have been sensational.

Aberdaron: 698hrs

Valley: 688.5hrs


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
15 July 2018 08:53:11

1976 301
1995 298
1983 278

2018 278 (up to 14th July)


1955 277
1911 274
1984 271
1959 269
1975 268

If the rest of summer had a mean max average of 15C, no sunshine and rain everyday then the index will end on 179

Ahead of summers 2007, 2008 and 2012 as recent examples.

Some of the sunshine totals figure since the start of May up to now have been sensational.

Aberdaron: 698hrs

Valley: 688.5hrs

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

Wow, level pegging with 1983, we're really up amoung the big boys now!

Still, the ref is just about to blow his whistle for half time on this summer and unfortunately as we know the second half can bring rather different conditions to the first....

 


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
15 July 2018 08:57:36

Kev, I’m really loving your Manchester stats.  

I’d like to see someone doing the same for a Southern location.  Although I do realise there’s a lot of time and work involved in collecting, calculating and presenting the data. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
15 July 2018 09:01:23

 

Wow, level pegging with 1983, we're really up amoung the big boys now!

Still, the ref is just about to blow his whistle for half time on this summer and unfortunately as we know the second half can bring rather different conditions to the first....

 

Originally Posted by: Col 

Somehow though Col, I get the feeling this summer as a whole will prove to be a big boy. I feel there are record breaking days yet to come!  Just a feeling in me water!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
15 July 2018 10:20:10

Somehow though Col, I get the feeling this summer as a whole will prove to be a big boy. I feel there are record breaking days yet to come!  Just a feeling in me water!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

That wasn't really a forecast as such, just my excuse to get a footballing metaphor in 🙂 Of course the hallmark of this summer so far has been the sheer consistency of the heat and dry conditions rather than any particularly high temperature. I think the max so far is 33C, which I think ocurrs in many 'normal' summers. Well this is far from a normal summer. It would only take the right synoptics to tap into the European heat and somwehere would be pushing up to 35/36C which would more fitting for the 'classic' summer this could well turn out to be.


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
15 July 2018 10:51:10

 

That wasn't really a forecast as such, just my excuse to get a footballing metaphor in 🙂 Of course the hallmark of this summer so far has been the sheer consistency of the heat and dry conditions rather than any particularly high temperature. I think the max so far is 33C, which I think ocurrs in many 'normal' summers. Well this is far from a normal summer. It would only take the right synoptics to tap into the European heat and somwehere would be pushing up to 35/36C which would more fitting for the 'classic' summer this could well turn out to be.

Originally Posted by: Col 

  

What has been so good, so far this year, is the better weather hasn’t been confined to the South. I think those of us who are further North are the ones raving about it more because it’s such a treat!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
15 July 2018 11:56:09

  

What has been so good, so far this year, is the better weather hasn’t been confined to the South. I think those of us who are further North are the ones raving about it more because it’s such a treat!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

That's quite right. The north/south weather divide has been a lot less sharper than normal. In years gone by there seemed to be many occasions when it got to say 27C in London but I was struggling in the high teens up here, not so this year! That 33C highest temp I think wasn't even recorded in England but in Wales (Porthmadog?)


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

johncs2016
15 July 2018 11:59:07

 

That's quite right. The north/south weather divide has been a lot less sharper than normal. In years gone by there seemed to be many occasions when it got to say 27C in London but I was struggling in the high teens up here, not so this year! That 33C highest temp I think wasn't even recorded in England but in Wales (Porthmadog?)

Originally Posted by: Col 

.. and of course, we can't also forget that even parts of Scotland saw temperatures getting above 30ºC during the latter part of June.

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
15 July 2018 12:03:27

 

That's quite right. The north/south weather divide has been a lot less sharper than normal. In years gone by there seemed to be many occasions when it got to say 27C in London but I was struggling in the high teens up here, not so this year! That 33C highest temp I think wasn't even recorded in England but in Wales (Porthmadog?)

Originally Posted by: Col 

Yes, which made a change from Gravesend being the highest!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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superteacher
15 July 2018 12:13:50

Yes, which made a change from Gravesend being the highest!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

I’m sure the highest temp of the year will be in its home in the SE before summer is over!

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
15 July 2018 12:30:19

I’m sure the highest temp of the year will be in its home in the SE before summer is over!

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

I think so too!  And I think it could be a record breaker!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
15 July 2018 13:18:01
It’s been a good spring / summer for weekends here. Most of the cool cloudy days we got with the easterlies in June were during the working week. Just a couple of exceptions where the weekend weather was worse.

The weekend maxima at St James’s Park since 1 May: 23, 25, 15, 18, 22, 21, 26, 27, 24, 27, 23, 23, 20, 19, 24, 26, 28, 30, 31, 31, 28, 30 (guess for today).

That’s an average max of 24.6C!

Adding in the 2 bank holiday Mondays (28, 26) we do even better: 24.8C.

Bear in mind this is for May, June and half of July so the average max across these months in central London would be 19.4C. Weekends have been over 5C warmer than the seasonal average.

It also rained on a sum total of 3 weekend days, all in May.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Jiries
15 July 2018 14:48:42

Yes, which made a change from Gravesend being the highest!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Gravesend had not been a hottest place yet this year when it was in the poor summers.   Current temps here is 29C and Isle of Grain 28C so Gravesand seem not in the low 30's today so more like 28 or 29C as everywhere is.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
16 July 2018 13:23:02
Would people concur that, barring a complete deluge and freezing weather in August (and I realise this may be jinxing things), 2018 is odds on to be best summer of this decade? Ie are we safely ahead of 2013? I think we probably are.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Saint Snow
16 July 2018 13:25:27

Would people concur that, barring a complete deluge and freezing weather in August (and I realise this may be jinxing things), 2018 is odds on to be best summer of this decade? Ie are we safely ahead of 2013? I think we probably are.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

 

By this time, 2018 beats 2013 - but wasn't 2013's best week still to come?

But when 2013 broke, it was poor thereafter (at least in the west and north of Britain)

 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
16 July 2018 13:35:37

Would people concur that, barring a complete deluge and freezing weather in August (and I realise this may be jinxing things), 2018 is odds on to be best summer of this decade? Ie are we safely ahead of 2013? I think we probably are.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

It’s my opinion that we already are in front of any other year this decade. That’s without looking at stats and from my memory of previous summers.

I suppose people may differ in opinion according to where they live. I get the impression from some posters, that this year this isn’t such an improvement for Southerners.  Whereas it is for those further North.


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Jonesy
16 July 2018 13:50:00

At this rate I'll be exchanging the car for a camel 

I don't think I've seen any kind of proper rain for about 5/6 weeks, back to when we had all that Flooding 


Medway Towns (Kent)

The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !

LeedsLad123
16 July 2018 14:11:59

 

 

By this time, 2018 beats 2013 - but wasn't 2013's best week still to come?

But when 2013 broke, it was poor thereafter (at least in the west and north of Britain)

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

August 2013 was okay here, warmer than average with average sunshine levels. Better than most summer months post-2007 - in fact, excluding this year, only July 2013 and July 2014 were any better imo.

As for this summer - June 2018 was obviously much better than June 2013. July 2018 is so far warmer than July 2013, but there's half of the month left.

August will be the clincher imo.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.

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