The Weather Outlook

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Jiries
08 July 2018 11:59:42

The cloud forecasts are really poor these days - you’d think thst in this day and age they would be better than 10 years ago!

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

It mostly cloudy now and wasting the heating up times so temps are dropping now.  Not sure why the clouds doing on purpose to appear during 11am to 4pm to prevent temps rising to hottest time around 4pm.  Hope tomorrow see more wall to wall sunshine and heat before it cool down on Tuesday.  Very poor forecast as they said hot and sunny with patchy cloud.

Rob K
08 July 2018 14:55:48

It’s felt hotter here today despite a bit of early cloud. But that might just be because I foolishly went for a 25-mile bike ride.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
08 July 2018 15:29:45

It’s felt hotter here today despite a bit of early cloud. But that might just be because I foolishly went for a 25-mile bike ride.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

It felt cooler here, but that might just be because I spent half the afternoon immersed in a large paddling pool.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Stormchaser
08 July 2018 16:11:25

Interesting pattern to the temperatures today; rocketed up during the morning from a mid-teens low at around 5 am to to in the mid-20s by 9 am and just into the 30s by noon - but then it seemed to hit a wall and was only able to add 1*C to that figure during the following few hours.

Since that time, some clouds have turned up as the leading edge of the sea breeze has advanced inland. You can see that very clearly on the satellite imagery today. The breeze itself is only intermittent, but sufficient to bring the temperature back close to the 30 mark.

This is one of the only times I can ever remember experiencing 30*C in a sea breeze. Goes to show just how much the nearshore waters have inevitably warmed during the prolonged unusually sunny and very warm-to-hot spell.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Ally Pally Snowman
08 July 2018 16:59:40

Gosport Fleetlands 32.4c today making it the hottest day in England this year.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
08 July 2018 17:39:47

It was bloody scorchio yesterday watching the game in a huge beer garden with giant screen and got mildly burned despite suncream. Last night was the first really horrendous one for being completely uncomfortable.

We got one of those inflatable hot tubs last year and, as you might imagine, it's had huge use this summer. Dread to think about both the water (despite religiously doing the chemical thing, we're on our third lot of water so far) and electricity bills (even though 30c is the perfect temp in this weather, as opposed to the usual 37c).


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

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picturesareme
08 July 2018 18:06:05
My hottest day for 2 years if memory is right at 32.8C - I don't recall such highs last year.
picturesareme
08 July 2018 18:08:16

Gosport Fleetlands 32.4c today making it the hottest day in England this year.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Is this an official recording station?  I know here in North Portsmouth it was 32.8C.

NickR
08 July 2018 18:17:20
Around 27-28°C here today, which is about the hottest we've had. It's been stunning for weeks, as elsewhere, but, unlike previous years which have had far fewer lovely days, we haven't yet hit 30C.
Nick

Durham

[email protected]

LeedsLad123
08 July 2018 18:21:06

Around 27-28°C here today, which is about the hottest we've had. It's been stunning for weeks, as elsewhere, but, unlike previous years which have had far fewer lovely days, we haven't yet hit 30C.

Originally Posted by: NickR 

Same here. We hit 30C in 2011, 2013, 2015, 2016 and 2017 but unless another spell of weather like this emerges later in the season then there's a good chance we won't this year. Could have been achieved for the past 3 days if it wasn't for the cloud amounts.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
08 July 2018 18:25:20

 

Is this an official recording station?  I know here in North Portsmouth it was 32.8C.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

 

Yes info from Met Office  Twitter 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
picturesareme
08 July 2018 18:31:22

 

 

Yes info from Met Office  Twitter 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Glad the met have now added a station closer to Portsmouth & gosport - I miss the Solent mrsc.

Arcus
08 July 2018 18:34:29

Around 27-28°C here today, which is about the hottest we've had. It's been stunning for weeks, as elsewhere, but, unlike previous years which have had far fewer lovely days, we haven't yet hit 30C.

Originally Posted by: NickR 

The reason is IMO in previous years when we in the north of England had have 30c+ temperatures it normally would necessitate a S or SSW flow. The main ingredient for that scenario would be a low to the W of the UK and a high to our E/SE. Those situations have occurred quite often in previous years in summer in Spanish plumes, but their nature is that they tend to be transitory, so you get a couple of hot days before the westerly breakdown. The current set-up is a very different beast, so long periods of dry, warm weather but not the blasts of heat. 


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Gusty
08 July 2018 19:29:01

The 8ft  (2300 litre) swimming / paddling pool filled up with 12c tap water back in early June has finally reached 27c (81f) !! 

For the first time today the kids played in it for nearly 1 hour without a single moan about it being  too cold. 

 

 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

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Stormchaser
08 July 2018 19:39:35

The temperature pattern here turned out even more interesting in the end; after about an hour of cooling sea breezes, it became near-calm again and the temperature headed back up to peak at 30.9*C... at 5:30 pm!

This heat is really lingering too; still in the 28s as I type this at just past 8:30 pm. Very rare in this very rural area.

It's a full 2*C above what it was at this time yesterday. Might be a tricky night coming up, though the extent to what that's been the case has so far been mitigated this summer by the very dry soils allowing temps to dip lower than the models predict; early today for example it dipped to 14.2*C when the model consensus was for a value rounded to 16*C.

 

Tomorrow has a good chance of being the fourth day in a row to make it into the 30s. It could even be the peak of this run; it's got a good chance of starting at a higher value than today did and the wind direction + airmass in place both look about the same as seen today.

 

Last summer managed a run of 3 days in a row into the 30s (19th-21st; 30.1, 30.4, 31.3) but that was it for the season.

2016 saw two separate days (19th July 31.6, 24th August 30.2).

The notorious 2015 only managed one, which was on July 1st and due to fronts getting close from the west, was well short of what took place in the southeast on that day (31.0*C).

2014 brought a lot of days in the mid-high 20s but none of them made it into the 30s. Generally to much instability with areas of cloud and thunderstorms.

2013 saw a brilliant July overall, in which there occurred one run of two days into the 30s (13th-14th, 30.2 & 30.4) and one lone day (17th with 30.1*C). There was then another on 1st August (30.2*C).

Then we hit the motherload when it comes to a disappointing lack of noteworthy summer heat; all years 2007-2012 failed to bring even one day into the 30s (and yes, that holds true even when including May and September).

2006 was of course much better, but not as much so as you might imagine here; 5 days into the 30s across the summer as a whole, this including one three-day run from 17th to 19th July. That did peak at 35.0*C, though! Interesting that 17th-19th July has seen by far the most days in the 30s during the past dozen years.

Both 2005 and 2004 had a single day in the 30s; 19th June in 2005 and 8th August in 2004.

2003... well this is the most recent year that 2018 is giving chase to for the number of days into the 30s; an impressive eight days across the season as a whole, within which is a run of two days 14th-15th July (30.4 & 31.9), another 4th-5th August (30.1 & 31.6) and a four-day run 8th-11th August (31.0, 32.1, 32.4, 31.9). Note that the last two sets make for 6 in 8 days hitting the 30s!

Of 2000-2002, only 2001 saw a day in the 30s (29th July at 30.2).

 

So there you have it - 2018 is on course to match the longest run of days in the 30s in my daily records series, and with 5-going-on-6 days into the 30s already while not even at the midpoint of the meteorological season, has a good shot at going for the total number of days as well.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

NickR
08 July 2018 20:13:37

 

The reason is IMO in previous years when we in the north of England had have 30c+ temperatures it normally would necessitate a S or SSW flow. The main ingredient for that scenario would be a low to the W of the UK and a high to our E/SE. Those situations have occurred quite often in previous years in summer in Spanish plumes, but their nature is that they tend to be transitory, so you get a couple of hot days before the westerly breakdown. The current set-up is a very different beast, so long periods of dry, warm weather but not the blasts of heat. 

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Nick

Durham

[email protected]

Lionel Hutz
08 July 2018 21:55:19
I recorded 28.9 here today. That's the highest that I have ever seen here. At first, I thought that it might be unreliable but the National Roads Authority in Ireland have a network of recording stations and a nearby station showed 29.2 so I can stand over my recording. At my location, today was the hottest day since 1976 at least.
Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



Joe Bloggs
08 July 2018 22:17:01

It’s still 22C here at 11pm! Feels absolutely roasting. 

CreweCold
09 July 2018 02:16:42

The 8ft  (2300 litre) swimming / paddling pool filled up with 12c tap water back in early June has finally reached 27c (81f) !! 

For the first time today the kids played in it for nearly 1 hour without a single moan about it being  too cold. 

 

 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Perhaps this is a stupid question tongue-out

but is that not a legionella risk? Or have you added the necessary chemicals for warm 25C+ water storage (the ones added to hot tubs etc).


Crewe, Cheshire

55 metres above sea level

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 July 2018 06:00:35

Bala overnight minimum sat7/sun8 only 0.4 C (MetO lowest in UK). That looks cold enough even for a frost on the grass! but daytime max for Sunday recovered to 26C.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

superteacher
09 July 2018 06:37:44

Gosport Fleetlands 32.4c today making it the hottest day in England this year.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Not sure that figure is official as the Met Office site are quoting Coton in the Elms at 31.6C as the highest temperature.

Ally Pally Snowman
09 July 2018 06:49:37

 

Not sure that figure is official as the Met Office site are quoting Coton in the Elms at 31.6C as the highest temperature.

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

 

Yes noticed that the Gosport figure was quoted twice in their Twitter feed so it's slightly odd. Maybe a Scotsman parked his car to near the Gosport Stevenson screen.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gavin D
09 July 2018 07:40:29

Updated heatwave alert

Current watch level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 08:19 on Mon 9 Jul 2018

There is a 80 % probability of heatwave conditions between 0900 on Monday and 0900 on Tuesday in parts of England.

The very warm/hot conditions from the weekend will still be present over SW England, and parts of southern England on Monday. However, elsewhere temperatures will be lowering as slightly cooler air extends southwestwards, as winds turn into the north or northeast. These cooler conditions will then extend to the SW by Tuesday, with all regions expected to remain below Heat Health thresholds for the rest of the working week. However, it will still be generally warm towards the south and west, locally very warm in places, and with a likely general warming trend again towards next weekend. Through the coming working week the largely dry conditions are expected to continue for many places.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

Jake
  • Jake
  • Advanced Member
09 July 2018 09:15:26

Still feels humid today despite being cooler here was 21C at 9am according to my weather alert app.

 

Must say when the air flow was coming from east I preferred it seemed more bearable and a drier heat.


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picturesareme
09 July 2018 11:10:09

 

 

Yes noticed that the Gosport figure was quoted twice in their Twitter feed so it's slightly odd. Maybe a Scotsman parked his car to near the Gosport Stevenson screen.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

But then they posted this around 12.30am

 

 https://mobile.twitter.com/metoffice/status/1016100636910333952

metoffice

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