The Weather Outlook

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Whether Idle
12 August 2017 08:17:49

Hi, seeing as the moaning thread is for people to vent, I didn't want to clutter it up with facts and figures, as that isn't the isn't the point of that thread.

I hope therefore the mods don't mind me posting the results of my database of the "Simple Summer Index".

It takes sunshine hours, dry days (less than 0.02mm of rain) and mean maximum temperature and weights them in the ratio 4:3:3 respectively for the months of June July and August.

The results for the Index for a summer season vary from a low score of around 30 (Lerwick, 2015)to a high score of around 75. (Manston, 2003).

I'm happy to share the results for this year and the mean and median values. Ive been double checking for data-entry errors, and have made a few, I think Ive nailed most of them now so I'm happy with the Index and feel it gives good objectivity. I will continue to check.

I will add more stations while I have the inclination and time to do so.

Eastbourne is the top location thus far, and is unlikely to be surpassed given the slight emphasis in the index given to sunshine hours, which, after reading various other indexes, I felt had slightly more importance than dry days and mean maximum temperature per month and season.

Lerwick is the "worst" station so far, perhaps unsurprisingly.

 

Simple Summer Index     by Whether Idle
YearManstonBradfordGlasgowLondonLerwickEastbourne 
*201763.3147.841.8158.8238.2663.87
mean61.8250.2847.4558.0537.4063.85mean
median62.5849.6346.8958.8237.7863.87median
*estimateMEAN AND MEDIAN = 2001-2017

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gusty
12 August 2017 08:25:08

Good work Phil. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent

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Andy Woodcock
12 August 2017 08:30:27
Great work and I agree with the loading given to sunshine hours as its all important in summer.

I would love to see some data for Carlisle or another Cumbria station to see how it compares.

Andy


Andy Woodcock

Penrith

Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001

Whether Idle
12 August 2017 09:30:08

Great work and I agree with the loading given to sunshine hours as its all important in summer.
I would love to see some data for Carlisle or another Cumbria station to see how it compares.
Andy

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 

Thanks Andy.  I will aim do this.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
lanky
12 August 2017 10:05:15

That index would certainly support the observations of the synoptics this summer

The north/south divide is much wider than average on your chart with Glasgow being about 10% below average and London slightly above

We have had a lot of examples this year of the south (and especially the extreme south-east) holding on to warm sunny weather much longer than the rest of the country and of Atlantic weather fronts becoming slow moving on their (often) NW-SE tracks and delivering just cloud when they reach down here

We have had fewer than usual depresssions moving up from France in my recollection for this summer - which is often where the south gets most of its rain in the summer months (last week was an exception though !)

 


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Whether Idle
13 August 2017 05:19:39

Updated SS Index with further stations added - Yeovilton, Armagh.  Interesting to see where 2017 sits compared to the other stations plus in relation to the mean and median values.

The mean and median values shown here are correct - I'm learning a lot about excel and functions and copying etc in order to preserve the integrity of the data and there is scope for error, which I am eliminating as as I get better at it.

  I have decided I will add 6 more stations, to make 14 in total across the UK, if I can bend my mind to the task (which, even for an enthusiast like me, is very tedious).

Simple Summer Index 2001-2017 by Whether Idle 
YearManstonBradfordGlasgowLondonLerwickEastbourneYeoviltonArmagh 
*201763.3147.841.8158.8238.2663.8754.1442.21 
*estimate         
mean63.4705949.9329447.7082459.3617637.7829465.0352956.7629445.62765mean
median63.3149.6345.7858.8237.7963.8757.0445.33median

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Whether Idle
13 August 2017 05:43:19

Great work and I agree with the loading given to sunshine hours as its all important in summer.
I would love to see some data for Carlisle or another Cumbria station to see how it compares.
Andy

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 

Hi.  Was going to use Newton Rigg but no sunshine figures for 2001-2017 sadly, so cant/ wont be using it.

 

WI


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Whether Idle
14 August 2017 20:11:05

Have added Stornoway:

Simple Summer Index 2001-2017 by Whether Idle  
YearManstonBradfordGlasgowLondonLerwickEastbourneYeoviltonArmaghStornoway 
200166.450.7745.1965.4633.1568.8361.2645.3340.22 
*201763.3147.841.8158.8238.2663.8754.1442.2140.66 
*estimate          
mean64.85549.28543.562.1435.70566.3557.743.7740.44mean
median64.85549.28543.562.1435.70566.3557.743.7740.44median

 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Whether Idle
31 August 2017 18:47:52

I will aim to get the figures for summer 2017 updated as soon as the data becomes available, and will post.  I imagine this will take a week or two all in all.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Whether Idle
11 September 2017 20:11:37

I devised a Simple Summer Index back in August to attempt to gain a foothold of objectivity regarding actual quality of the weather as determined by sunshine hours, number of dry days, and mean maximum temperature.  So far my index covers every summer from 2001 to 2017. Ive now updated the 2017 figures based on real rather than estimated data.

Below you should find the results for 2017, with the mean and median for each of the 9 stations I have this far processed.



Simple Summer Index 2001-2017 by Whether Idle
YearManstonBradfordGlasgowLondonLerwickEastbourneYeoviltonArmaghStornoway 
*201765.447.537.259.536.067.254.641.540.1 
mean63.649.947.459.437.665.256.845.638.6mean
median63.849.645.859.337.264.757.045.339.1median

 

What the data objectively shows, is that for Glasgow, 2017 was by some way the worst summer of the century thus far. For Stornoway, it was a better than average summer by either measure. Eastbourne nipped Manston to the top spot, though whilst it was the best summer there since 2013; it was the best at Manston for 8 years (since 2009).

Bradford had a poor time and ended up below par, in London (Heathrow) it was almost exactly average.  What this shows is that, as a rule of thumb, the weather got progressively better for Britain as you travelled south east, with the far SE enjoying a very good summer by its own standards, but the bulk of the UK enduring a below par summer, particularly so in mainland Scotland. 2017 was one of those years with a very marked NW/SE split.  The summer when this split was least apparent, was 2013.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Whether Idle
08 July 2018 06:28:54

Last summer I devised a Simple Summer Index back in August to attempt to gain a foothold of objectivity regarding actual quality of the weather as determined by sunshine hours, number of dry days, and mean maximum temperature.  

It takes sunshine hours, dry days (less than 0.02mm of rain) and mean maximum temperature and weights them in the ratio 4:3:3 respectively for the months of June July and August.

I have had to double check the figures as the quality of the summer weather that June has delivered to places in the north and west has clearly been outstanding.

For June, Bradford has a SSI value of 22.12.  Only one month this millennium has a higher value there- July 2006 with 24.34 !! So the second best summer month of the millennium in Bradford. The monthly mean for Bradford is 15.98.

Glasgow has a value for June of 21.23, compared to 2017 with a value of 12.84 - so almost twice the quality!!  This value in Glasgow was only bettered marginally by July 2013 and July 2014 and July 2006, so the 4th best month of summer weather of the millennium. Glasgow's monthly mean is 15.32.  

 

I will add more data as time permits.

 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
08 July 2018 08:03:27
Summer indices are useful, I think. They tend to conform what anecdotally we think is the case, but Kevin’s Manchester one is interesting because it shows how different the North West’s experience has been in recent years until now.

I do a summer index based on the England and Wales official data, but I can only do it monthly when the stats come out. It is simply standardised mean temperature plus sunshine hours minus rainfall. (Standardised such that the Std dev of each series is equal). Not done June yet but May was the highest for many years.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Whether Idle
08 July 2018 08:13:29

Summer indices are useful, I think. They tend to conform what anecdotally we think is the case, but Kevin’s Manchester one is interesting because it shows how different the North West’s experience has been in recent years until now.

I do a summer index based on the England and Wales official data, but I can only do it monthly when the stats come out. It is simply standardised mean temperature plus sunshine hours minus rainfall. (Standardised such that the Std dev of each series is equal). Not done June yet but May was the highest for many years.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Tim, you should find the summary below of interest: It  presently covers 8 stations across the UK.  The fact that Glasgow has accumulated well over  half of its summer total from last year in one month is indicative of what an incredible month it was for parts of the NW compared to recent summers post 2014.

Simple Summer Index 2001-2018 by Whether Idle
YearManstonBradfordGlasgowLondonLerwickEastbourneYeoviltonArmaghStornoway
200166.450.845.265.533.268.861.345.340.2
200264.447.043.558.339.662.757.042.337.0
200374.152.851.669.943.872.662.150.439.1
200460.346.144.962.042.364.756.247.438.7
200565.451.751.761.434.270.763.045.734.8
200670.157.057.465.840.070.967.652.842.9
200759.146.945.851.735.461.851.641.439.7
200865.843.142.554.238.260.049.040.639.1
200968.549.446.956.244.767.551.147.040.6
201062.649.648.559.335.466.260.448.036.1
201159.754.048.753.336.363.849.044.437.8
201255.141.142.149.736.758.744.038.439.1
201362.358.457.365.937.868.463.855.642.7
201462.153.755.262.437.262.860.848.042.7
201556.050.645.056.930.960.457.044.030.7
201663.848.943.057.938.461.757.142.234.8
201765.447.537.259.536.067.254.641.540.1
2018         
          
mean63.649.947.459.437.665.256.845.638.6mean
median63.849.645.859.337.264.757.045.339.1median
Simple Summer Index 2001-2017 by Whether Idle
YearManstonBradfordGlasgowLondonLerwickEastbourneYeoviltonArmaghStornoway 
201765.447.537.259.536.067.254.641.540.1 
mean63.649.947.459.437.665.256.845.638.6mean
median63.849.645.859.337.264.757.045.339.1median

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
08 July 2018 08:28:40

I think these stats are brilliant and a great way to show comparisons across the country. It’s so easy for us to only think of the weather in our own back yard so it’s good to see how other areas fare. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Whether Idle
08 July 2018 10:00:20

I think these stats are brilliant and a great way to show comparisons across the country. It’s so easy for us to only think of the weather in our own back yard so it’s good to see how other areas fare. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Thanks Caz.  Over the month of August I intend to invest more time in bringing the database up to date and including more stations.  Hours of work but worthwhile I think.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
08 July 2018 11:54:22

My summer index score for England & Wales in June is 161.17, the second highest since my series started in 1971, after 1976 (161.54). So as you can see, we very nearly beat 1976. It was a bit drier and sunnier this year, but 76 was warmer.

For some context, the highest months in the series are 186.44 (July 2006), 182.86 (Aug 1995), 174.16 (July 2013), 171.03 (July 1989) and 170.3 (July 1976) and 170.1 (July 1983).

June 2018 is the highest scoring month since July 2014 and 3rd highest of any month since 2006.

The May-June period is by far the highest scoring in the whole series (over 300 compared with 285 in 1989).

I did paste the full series including winter months but it seemed to jumble the numbers.

 

 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Gusty
08 July 2018 12:05:19

 

Thanks Caz.  Over the month of August I intend to invest more time in bringing the database up to date and including more stations.  Hours of work but worthwhile I think.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

 

 Good skills Phil 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
08 July 2018 14:09:26

 

Thanks Caz.  Over the month of August I intend to invest more time in bringing the database up to date and including more stations.  Hours of work but worthwhile I think.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

I can imagine it takes an awful lot of time and effort and it’s very much appreciated. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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