im puzzled you are talking like we are in july already so how can you declare 2013 is better than july 2018 ...

 

The heat wave of that year was mostly in July though the highest temps of the year occurred in very early August.. the heatwave as it stands of 2018 had been in June. 

Perhaps it will continue long (several weeks) into July and at that point we might very well be talking about something better then summer 2013. 😊

 

im puzzled you are talking like we are in july already so how can you declare 2013 is better than july 2018 ...

 

I'm saying July 2013 was better than June 2018. July 2018 could end up better than July 2013.

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I'm saying July 2013 was better than June 2018. July 2018 could end up better than July 2013.

Isn't it logical to compare June 2018 with June 2013 then?

In that case, June 2018 was better than June 2013.

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No as it stands July 2013 trumps June 2018..

 

UK overview

Much of July was settled with high pressure established over the UK and with plenty of sunshine in most areas. As the month progressed there was an increasing tendency for high daytime temperatures, exceeding 28 °C somewhere in the UK on 19 consecutive days from 6th to 24th, with values exceeding 30 °C on several days. This was the UK's most notable summer heat wave since 2006. The UK overall had a rather dry month compared to normal, with nearly all of the month's rain falling during the last ten days, often as thundery outbreaks.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2013/july

19 yes 19 consecutive days of 28C or higher.. and it was a nationwide heat wave.

 33.5C was the highest temp that month and as far as I'm aware that has yet to be matched this June.

Why are you comparing June 2018 with July 2013?

At this stage, June 2018 trumps June 2013. June 2013 actually has a below average CET. That seems to be forgotten. 

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Isn't it logical to compare June 2018 with June 2013 then?

In that case, June 2018 was better than June 2013.

No not when comparing heatwaves.. the month is less important. 

The point really being is people comparing this current heatwave the best since many a bye gone era when in reality we had better more protracted (as it stands currently) heat wave less then 5 years ago. 😊

Anyway I'm off topic in this thread so i best leave it at that.

 

No not when comparing heatwaves.. the month is less important. 

The point really being is people comparing this current heatwave the best since many a bye gone era when in reality we had better more protracted (as it stands currently) heat wave less then 5 years ago. 😊

Anyway I'm off topic in this thread so i best leave it at that.

As always in these discussions, it depends where you are in the country.

Leaving individual months aside, I’d suggest this period of summer weather is the best in this part of the world since 1995. 

This will always be very subjective depending on where you are geographically, and whether you are looking at longevity, dryness, number of sunshine hours, highest temp etc. This is why Kevin’s summer index is so effective. 

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For Manchester, this summer so far has been without doubt the best since 1995. 2003 wasn't even comparable in my mind. I do feel we have been very lucky here this year though. We seem to be getting the best of all the nice weather which isn't normal. We have had 2 months of pretty much none stop sun. Even the mini breakdowns were petty and probably comparable to some of our half decent days on other summers!

 

Looking like it is set to continue well into July too, it is very special for this region . If it does continue on the same way into August then I would put this down as my best summer ever but 2 weeks is a long time in weather, never mind 2 months.

 

Back on topic, GFS seems to have abandoned its idea of a cold incursion and joined ECM in predicting warm, even hot, weather for the foreseeable future. Both models appear more interested in developing slack low pressure over the UK so maybe some thunderstorms around

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Another high pressure dominated ensemble by the EC 00z run and it's always fun to see a stronger anomaly/signal for day 13 vs days 5/6.

It would take a brave person to predict anything other than high pressure until the end of July and this looks more and more like the best summer of our lives!

There continues to be a very big gap in rainfall totals between GFS and most of the other models, particularly for next week.

For example GFS gives the London area 25-30mm, which is more than half our monthly rainfall in a week. The others give between 0 and 15mm.

GFS gives my area of central France a frankly biblical 220mm of rain in the next fortnight. ECM and GEM give it about 25mm.

Either GFS is wildly overcooking convective rainfall or the others are undercooking it. The macro patterns are the same, and the gap has been evident for days.

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There continues to be a very big gap in rainfall totals between GFS and most of the other models, particularly for next week.

For example GFS gives the London area 25-30mm, which is more than half our monthly rainfall in a week. The others give between 0 and 15mm.

GFS gives my area of central France a frankly biblical 220mm of rain in the next fortnight. ECM and GEM give it about 25mm.

Either GFS is wildly overcooking convective rainfall or the others are undercooking it. The macro patterns are the same, and the gap has been evident for days.

Probably 2 issues here: GFS continues to often moisten up the boundary layer too much and it does also have a bit more cyclonic upper level flow in southern UK compared to the EC.

Central France should have some big totals later next week.

 

 

Nice.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

 

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Nice.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

 

Indeed it just keeps getting prolonged. My automated weather app on my phone has 27C - 29C maxes for the next 10 days, although it does also show some shower risk during the week. To be honest I wouldn't say no to a downpour or two as the garden looks like the African savannah, too late for the magnolia tree which I think has already succumbed to the drought.

 

The 00Z GFS ensemble is more or less flatlined with only a few colder and less settled outliers.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

 

2018 is shaping up to be quite a good year for weather all round: plenty of snow, subzero March days, an April heatwave, lots of spring thunderstorms and now a summer scorcher!

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Another high pressure dominated ensemble by the EC 00z run and it's always fun to see a stronger anomaly/signal for day 13 vs days 5/6.

It would take a brave person to predict anything other than high pressure until the end of July and this looks more and more like the best summer of our lives!

It sure looks good at the moment going by the current output. I think the best thing we can do is take each week of the summer as it comes while keeping our eyes on the model output each day and hope that this excellent weather is maintained.

One thing I am sure of is that the opening weeks of this summer have given us as good a start to summer as any I can recall in all the time I have had an interest in the weather, and that's about 30 years now.

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It sure looks good at the moment going by the current output. I think the best thing we can do is take each week of the summer as it comes while keeping our eyes on the model output each day and hope that this excellent weather is maintained.

One thing I am sure of is that the opening weeks of this summer have given us as good a start to summer as any I can recall in all the time I have had an interest in the weather, and that's about 30 years now.

It's certainly been good on your side of the country but if you were to have come through here for any length of time and been stuck under those cool easterlies as we are just now, I'm not so sure that you would painting such a rosy picture of things just now.

 

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It's certainly been good on your side of the country but if you were to have come through here for any length of time and been stuck under those cool easterlies as we are just now, I'm not so sure that you would painting such a rosy picture of things just now.

 

Hi John

After Thursday's exceptional and stifling heat here (nearly 90F), we had a fairly strong easterly breeze throughout the day on Friday and yesterday and for me it was far more pleasant to be out and about in compared to what we had on Thursday. I don't mind cool easterlies at this time of year as long as it is mostly sunny or even bright. Obviously I can't speak for how much sun Edinburgh has had lately as I don't live near there, but from the forecasts I have seen Edinburgh has been forecast to receive plenty of sun too, even if not as warm or hot as the west of Scotland has been in the past few days.

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Amazing GFS 12z run. Temps 30C or more for days and days on end in the southern half of the UK. #blowtorch #furnaceheat

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=12&charthour=102&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)

 

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Daniel had an email from Silverstone today warning that they expect temperatures to be around 28c during the five days they’re there.  At least it hasn’t broken up for their camping trip!  

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Another high pressure dominated ensemble by the EC 00z run and it's always fun to see a stronger anomaly/signal for day 13 vs days 5/6.

It would take a brave person to predict anything other than high pressure until the end of July and this looks more and more like the best summer of our lives!

I take it you are quite young xioni ? Im guessing you don't remember 1995 or weren't around in 76 that was the best summer of my lifetime,the current heatwave is cool compared to that year.

Back on topic I see the beeb are forecasting more high pressure building in toward next weekend from the sw following a hot humid week with minimums not falling below 16c so the heatwave and high temperatures will continue July looks like being a scorcher as well and could well be on par with 2006 and 1983.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Should be fresher in the north, but still the heat goes on in the south but at least not extreme and fresher at night. Tonight will hopefully be the worst for a while

 

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