The Weather Outlook

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speckledjim
02 July 2018 15:03:04
lovely breeze today, went out for a run this morning but it is too hot so not very enjoyable
Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
02 July 2018 15:37:05

Caz

I'm 60 so 1976 still by far the best for me for sheer length of sun and heat.

I now live in Edinburgh which doesn't do spectacular summers. I experienced high heat in Notts in the mid 90's and mid 00's. Also experienced my highest UK temp of 34.7 C in south Notts 3/8/90

I prefer hot and sunny 🌞

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 

  Yes, I experienced all of those in Notts too.  1976 certainly is the most memorable for me, although not necessarily the best because I was working outdoors in it.  So I suppose another consideration is what you were actually doing at the time. 

I’m a little older and remember 1959, not because of the heat but the length of the sunny dry spell.  My dad was a retained firefighter and was constantly out on shouts that summer, mainly grass fires.  I had the very important duty of listening for the fire siren while playing in the garden.  There were no alerters in those days, just the old air raid siren at the Town Hall.  

The hotter the better used to do it for me, but these days I prefer the comfort of mid 20’s and sunny.  So if the next two months are a repeat of the last two, it might well be the best summer of my life. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
02 July 2018 15:44:47

Also, the number of notable summers experienced (dependent as you say on age) is another very important point. I doubt whether many members on here experienced from a memorable age (or even adult age) the summer of 1976. It's not much good going on about how hot it was, how parched the landscape was, the introduction of hosepipe bans, and the appointment of a Minister for Drought, when either you weren't alive or too young to remember it. As an experienced member from all the hot summers from 1976, there is no doubt that for me 1976 stands way ahead of all the other notable recent summers, but if you didn't experience it, you probably won't believe it.

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

   I remember it well!  

You don’t say which part of the world you’re from though.


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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golfingmad
02 July 2018 16:08:09

   I remember it well!  

You don’t say which part of the world you’re from though.

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Yes, I'll add my location to my profile. North London in 1976 and Cambridge/London now.


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Jake
  • Jake
  • Advanced Member
02 July 2018 16:19:50

 

 

Certainly from a purely statistical viewpoint, the CET summer series always gains a lot of attention, simply because it is our longest running temperature series. However, it does have its drawbacks, for obvious reasons.

Also, the number of notable summers experienced (dependent as you say on age) is another very important point. I doubt whether many members on here experienced from a memorable age (or even adult age) the summer of 1976. It's not much good going on about how hot it was, how parched the landscape was, the introduction of hosepipe bans, and the appointment of a Minister for Drought, when either you weren't alive or too young to remember it. As an experienced member from all the hot summers from 1976, there is no doubt that for me 1976 stands way ahead of all the other notable recent summers, but if you didn't experience it, you probably won't believe it.

With regard to summer 2018, I think we are have a good chance of a really notable summer, simply because of the good start in June, and the signal for warmth from the models until at least the middle of July. On this point I did post a brief summary of where we stand this summer, and a brief analysis of the Top Five summers from the CET series, in the June CET thread. I thought I'd copy it here, as it may be more relevant perhaps to the summer 2018 chat thread.

So I thought I'd take a look at the 'Top Five' summers in the CET series, and see where we stand with the current position of the June CET figure of 16.1, and the projected warmth forecast for July (courtesy of GW's figures provided in the July thread). This is JFF, nothing more. Here is a breakdown by summer months of the Top Five CET summers:

 

1) 1976  17.77 (June 17.0, July 18.7, August 17.6)

2) 1826   17.60 (17.3, 17.9, 17.6)

3) 1995   17.37 (14.3, 18.6, 19.2)

4) 2003   17.33 (16.1, 17.6, 18.3)

5) 2006   17.23 (15.9, 19.7,16.1)

x) 2018       x    (June 16.1, July GW 18.8 or CET projected 19.6, August ???)

Standout points of summers since 1976 are:

1) 1976 is consistently very warm throughout the summer, with the notable hot spell 20th June to 9th July. This is the spell everyone remembers and is the standout event of the 1976 summer. 

2) 1995 was remarkable in that the June figure of 14.3 is only joint 185th in the monthly CET series. The summer recovered in dramatic fashion right at the end of June, July at 18.6C was 6th in the monthly series, and ended with the hottest CET August on record with 19.2C

3) 2003 was again consistently very warm through the summer, starting like June 2018 with 16.1C but building in strength through the summer, with July of 17.6C being joint 36th in the monthly series, and August finishing strongly at joint 5th in the series with 18.3C.

4) 2006 is remarkable in that it started with June of 15.9C which is only joint 29th in the monthly series but produced the hottest July and the hottest month ever recorded with 19.7C. It then finished on 16.1C in August which is only joint 105th in the monthly series.

What of 2018? June has started well with 16.1C which is joint 18th with six other summers including 2003. If we take GW's July figure of 18.8C,  it would only take an August figure of 16.8C to produce a summer mean total of 17.23C leading to a joint 5th position with 2006. If the figure were just 16.9C this would result in a figure of 17.26C and sole 5th position. To beat the summer of 1976 an August figure of 18.5C would be needed to achieve an overall figure of 17.8C. Obviously if GWs CET projected figure for July of 19.6C were to occur, then it would take a relatively poor August of 15.9C or less to keep 2018 out of the summer Top Five.

Either way, given the projections for July 2018 and current standings in the models, we should experience a very good summer overall. Indeed, all the building blocks are in place for a Top Five CET summer series finish. It would only take consistent warmth through July and August, with perhaps a heatwave during the middle of July or even sometime in August, for 2018 to challenge 1976 for the warmest summer in the CET summer series since 1659. 

 

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

 

Thanks I recall 1995 being great there were a few free gay festivals taking place in London and the weather was fantastic. 1994 was pretty decent of I recall. Be interesting to see how this one pans out considering May was pretty decent as well.


youtube page:My You tube page 
POD
  • POD
  • Advanced Member
02 July 2018 16:21:38

Off topic but I notice Nepal has had more rainfall in a day than my yearly total to date of 379.6mm.

https://eldoradoweather.com/climate/world-extremes/world-temp-rainfall-extremes.php


Pat, Crawley Down, West Sussex, 121m asl.
richardabdn
02 July 2018 21:01:46

Last two months have been unremarkable in terms of high temperatures but excellent for sunshine, bar the middle third of June which spoiled things somewhat. Had the poor days been more evenly spread it wouldn’t have been noticed as opposed to coming all at once to give the “permacast hell”.

Breakdown for June:

1st-10th: 90.6hrs
11th-20th: 38.3hrs
21st-30th: 110.1hrs
Total: 239.0hrs

489.1 hours sun combined for May and June making them the sunniest since 1940 with 1921 and 1936 also being marginally sunnier.

Both May and June beat the previous highest monthly total, in my 11 year records, of 235.5 hours in May 2009.

The week ending 1st July clocked up a total of 91.2 hours making it the third sunniest week I’ve recorded behind 102.9 hours for 20-26 May 2012 and 92.4hrs for 28th April – 4th May 2011. It was more than was recorded during the entirety of June 2007 and July 2012.

Overall June was the sunniest locally since 1970 but, reflective of the deterioration in June since then, failed to make into the top 10 since 1884.
I’ve calculated the next four Junes need to be this sunny to offset the ridiculous deficit recorded between 2007 and 2017.

Also following a total of 31.1 hours for July already, we now only need another 41 hours sun to beat the whole of summer 2012’s revoltingly inadequate total.


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything

2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November

2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits

2025 - The Weekend Curse hell intensifies

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
02 July 2018 22:36:55
Ok so hang on, was it actually sunnier than average in Aberdeen last month?

I’m kind of disappointed. I’d imagined the city was living through hell on earth while the rest of us baked!


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
02 July 2018 23:13:23
So I thought the warm UN weather was at the expense of a cool wet French June. I was only half right, according to Meteo France:

“Le mois de juin aura été le 5eme plus chaud mesuré en France depuis le début des relevés, avec une anomalie de +1.7°C derrière 2003, 2017, 1976 et 2005.”

5th warmest on record after 2003, 2017 (who knew), 1976 and 2005. This despite being pretty wet.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
johncs2016
03 July 2018 07:07:38

Ok so hang on, was it actually sunnier than average in Aberdeen last month?

I’m kind of disappointed. I’d imagined the city was living through hell on earth while the rest of us baked!

Originally Posted by: TimS 

If you go further south from there into Edinburgh though, you will then be entering a city which IS living through hell whilst the vast majority of the rest of the UK baked.

Yes, the temperatures here have been above average overall during this summer so far. However, there hasn't been anything all that spectacular about the temperatures in this part of the world whatsoever. All too often, easterly winds have kept things much cooler here on the east coast to the extent this has even resulted in the maximum temperatures being below average at times whilst the rest of the UK has been experiencing those really high temperatures.

This means that even when the really hot weather has been reaching Scotland, this part of the east of Scotland has always still managed to miss out on that as a result. I read somewhere on this forum, a comment from a member who believed that one good thing about this summer was the manner in which this heat has been more spread out away from those more traditionally hot areas in the likes of SE England and central London and the vast majority of the UK, that has been true.

However, that just serves to make the fact that this heat has never really reached this part of the UK feel even worse. To me, you have to be part of something in order for that to actually mean anything and so with that heat never really managing to reach us in the east of Scotland, the comment about that heat being more spread out across the UK means absolutely nothing to me.

Yes, last month has been sunnier than average here but that is only because of the number of sunny afternoons and evenings which we have had. In fact, the most of the mornings have actually been rather dull and overcast in this part of the world due to that easterly muck being around. The result of this is there has only been one occasion during this summer so far, where we have managed to string together two back to back sunny mornings and so far, we have yet to have anything more than that. Yet it seems as though the rest of the UK is always starting off on a sunny note, just about every morning.

For me as well, it does get rather depressing after a while when you're always waking up to grey skies every morning even if the afternoons have then ended up being sunnier, and especially when you are seeing that the rest of the UK is starting off on a much sunnier note. To make matters worse as well, there has been quite a number of mornings during this summer so far when even the likes of Aberdeen has been starting off on a sunny note whilst we continue to be stuck with that easterly muck here in Edinburgh.

If that wasn't the case, then I'm sure that you would be hearing a lot more from Richard on that subject than what you are hearing. The fact that the mornings have generally been sunnier in Aberdeen on average than what they have been in Edinburgh means that Richard has absolutely nothing to moan about when it comes to sunshine, and that is why he has been fairly quiet on that note. I think that if Richard stayed here in Edinburgh though instead of Aberdeen, I think that it would be a completely different story.

All in all, this adds up to yet another reason why although Edinburgh is a good city to visit for other reasons such as its big festivals, it has to be the most boring parts of the UK when it comes to the weather, where all of the interesting weather which is around will generally always be elsewhere.

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
03 July 2018 07:09:28
We have now hit grasscon 3.5, quite soon after achieving 3.0 last week. When the soil really dries out below the top cm or so the effects can start to accelerate.

3.5 means recently planted / young specimen trees start showing visible signs of stress. Roadside weeds likewise: the stinging nettles are t happy right now.

If this keeps going for a couple more weeks it could be good for people afflicted by Japanese knotweed. I had some in my French place and although I’d been poisoning it regularly with some encouraging results, it finally bit the dust in the drought of July 2015.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
speckledjim
03 July 2018 07:23:31

We have now hit grasscon 3.5, quite soon after achieving 3.0 last week. When the soil really dries out below the top cm or so the effects can start to accelerate.

3.5 means recently planted / young specimen trees start showing visible signs of stress. Roadside weeds likewise: the stinging nettles are t happy right now.

If this keeps going for a couple more weeks it could be good for people afflicted by Japanese knotweed. I had some in my French place and although I’d been poisoning it regularly with some encouraging results, it finally bit the dust in the drought of July 2015.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

 

Some of the lawns round me no longer have any green on them at all. I've been watering parts of mine every now and again but they still look poor.


Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

Tim A
03 July 2018 07:28:47
I have given up on the lawns and just water the plants, still a struggle to keep them alive.

Needed to buy some more plants but not bothering until it starts raining again. March was too cold and snowy for gardening, April too wet, and the months since too dry !


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

RobR
  • RobR
  • Advanced Member
03 July 2018 08:00:49

I have given up on the lawns and just water the plants, still a struggle to keep them alive.
Needed to buy some more plants but not bothering until it starts raining again. March was too cold and snowy for gardening, April too wet, and the months since too dry !

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

 

Sums up my garden this year too. Oh well the roses are doing fantastic, best year so far.


Winter 23/24 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 4

Days Snow Lying: 1

Deepest Snowfall: 3rd December 23 (2cm)

Winter 22/23 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 4

Days Snow Lying: 2

Deepest Snowfall: 10th March (3cm)

Latest Snowfall: 10th March

Winter 21/22 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 3

Days Snow Lying: 1

Deepest Snowfall: 28th November (3cm)

Latest Snowfall: 31st March

Winter 20/21 in Solihull

Days Snow Falling: 21

Days Snow Lying: 8

Deepest Snowfall: 24th January (9cm)

Latest Snowfall: 12th April

Winter 19/20 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 5

Days Snow Lying: 2

Deepest Snowfall: 10th Feb (5cm)

Winter 18/19 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 6

Days Snow Lying: 6

Deepest Snowfall: 29th Jan (3cm)

Winter 17/18 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 27

Days Snow Lying: 24

Deepest Snowfall: 18th March 2018 (10cm)

Arcus
03 July 2018 08:29:12

I have to say I'm starting to get a tad concerned with some areas of my lawn.


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Jiries
03 July 2018 08:35:48

We have now hit grasscon 3.5, quite soon after achieving 3.0 last week. When the soil really dries out below the top cm or so the effects can start to accelerate.

3.5 means recently planted / young specimen trees start showing visible signs of stress. Roadside weeds likewise: the stinging nettles are t happy right now.

If this keeps going for a couple more weeks it could be good for people afflicted by Japanese knotweed. I had some in my French place and although I’d been poisoning it regularly with some encouraging results, it finally bit the dust in the drought of July 2015.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

I enjoyed so much looking at the parching landscape every day and the last time I see all the nettles dead was in August 1995 so you can see the ground base that normally appear in the Autumn and Winter months.  

superteacher
03 July 2018 08:40:22
If June 1995 had been a better month, summer 95 would have been well head of 76 in terms of CET.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
03 July 2018 08:55:19

I think what is so amazing this year, certainly where I live, is that we went from winter to summer and missed out spring.  I wonder if other notable summers were preceded by such a great May, with two hot and sunny Bank Holidays and much of the same in between.  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
03 July 2018 08:56:21

I have to say I'm starting to get a tad concerned with some areas of my lawn.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
03 July 2018 09:35:28

The desiccating wind is the feature of this summer and I assume that it speeds up transpiration drying out the sub surface soil moisture quicker than otherwise.

So far we have missed the large scale fires that people further north have to fight but I think that sooner or later some dxchhead will try to light up some of the heathlands in this region with devastating results. Maybe arson needs a lock up and throw away the key sort of penalty?

The vegetation here is very dry and farmers or growers without irrigation must be more than concerned by now. Not quite Historic yet but another week or two and we are entering that sort of territory I think.

As far as our garden goes the lawn was left to its own devices two months ago when we last had some proper rain. Baskets get water as do pots and some borders. Our water bill in September will certainly be historic and I will have to agree a staggered payment with Wessex Water as the lump sum will be too much for one payment. The joy of having a water meter. The alternative will be to cut everything back to tidy the garden and leave it in desert mode for the duration. 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Rob K
03 July 2018 10:12:37

On our sandy soil the lawn is usually like straw at some point in the summer, but this year it was fully parched by the end of June. Saves on mowing! We've only been watering the containers, the veg patch and the borders we had bothered to plant - I've been recycling the bath water for the latter. This is the first summer we have had a water meter.

Despite the sandy nature of the soil it still seems to be like concrete. I was trying to dig a hole to put a new washing line in yesterday and even with a post spade it was very hard going. Even nearly a foot down I still found no trace of moisture under the lawn.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

P+ve Giant
03 July 2018 10:40:53

The desiccating wind is the feature of this summer and I assume that it speeds up transpiration drying out the sub surface soil moisture quicker than otherwise.

So far we have missed the large scale fires that people further north have to fight but I think that sooner or later some dxchhead will try to light up some of the heathlands in this region with devastating results. Maybe arson needs a lock up and throw away the key sort of penalty?

The vegetation here is very dry and farmers or growers without irrigation must be more than concerned by now. Not quite Historic yet but another week or two and we are entering that sort of territory I think.

As far as our garden goes the lawn was left to its own devices two months ago when we last had some proper rain. Baskets get water as do pots and some borders. Our water bill in September will certainly be historic and I will have to agree a staggered payment with Wessex Water as the lump sum will be too much for one payment. The joy of having a water meter. The alternative will be to cut everything back to tidy the garden and leave it in desert mode for the duration. 

Originally Posted by: NMA 

Yes, those dry winds, along with very strong sunshine putting out very high UV levels and at peak times some half a KW of energy per square metre, has dried out the countryside at an alarming rate.  

Many of the fires in this region have been started deliberately and helicopter crews fighting the major blazes in Lancashire have spotted arsonists setting more fires. Those that are caught should be locked up - after they have been sent to the fires to assist in putting them out! 

Have left our lawns to their own devices and am just watering the borders, veg patch and tubs - tho' the transpiration rate is so extreme - after a few hours you wouldn't know I'd watered! Think I'm fighting a losing battle atm tbh! As for the water bill here - I think that may be higher than usual, lol! 

 


John.
Rob K
03 July 2018 11:19:10

Satellite view mid May versus beginning of July!

 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Arcus
03 July 2018 11:24:43

Satellite view mid May versus beginning of July!

 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Bloody Columbia fans in their replica shirts get everywhere...


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Sharp Green Fox
03 July 2018 11:30:57

I think what is so amazing this year, certainly where I live, is that we went from winter to summer and missed out spring.  I wonder if other notable summers were preceded by such a great May, with two hot and sunny Bank Holidays and much of the same in between.  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

May 1976 was quite good if I remember rightly. In fact this summer has mirrored 1976 on virtually a daily basis imo. The middle of July that year had a few cloudy days, (but mainly fair weather cumulus) and a couple of soft summer rain showers, but then reloaded for the end of July and August.

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