The Weather Outlook

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picturesareme
02 July 2018 00:18:09
Well it's still 24.1C gone 1am in the morning...

It's expected to stay above 21C tonight according to the met office.

02 July 2018 05:36:59

Very high minima this morning although nothing exceptional.

Plymouth Mountbatten got down to 19.0C at 0300 but then went up to 22.3C at 0400. Has held steady since then. This is currently the warmest place in the UK.

Highest minimums:

St Catherine’s Point 20.6C at 0600

Isle of Portland 20.1C

 

 

Brian Gaze
02 July 2018 05:41:16

Overnight minimum here was 14.6C. Hazy sunshine this morning but hopefully we'll challenge 30C today.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Retron
02 July 2018 05:41:43

Well it's still 24.1C gone 1am in the morning...

It's expected to stay above 21C tonight according to the met office.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

I mentioned the other day that getting minima of 20C or higher is exceptionally rare - it's one of the ways to tell if the GFS, for example, has "gone off on one".

Here's the standing as of 5 AM GMT, courtesy of WeatherOnline:

London Oxford Airport (82 m)23.0 °C
St. Catherine's Point (24 m)21.0 °C
Thorney Island (3 m)20.0 °C
Isle of Portland (52 m)20.0 °C
Mumbles (32 m)20.0 °C

Now, as the overnight minimum is recorded up to 9 AM (IIRC), that means there's a while yet for things to cool down.

The Oxford entry is fake news btw... the actual low was around 15C!


Leysdown, north Kent
Crepuscular Ray
02 July 2018 06:29:40
Edinburgh Airport

Max yesterday 18 C

Min today 11 C

No heatwave in the NE 👍


Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

picturesareme
02 July 2018 06:33:28

 

I mentioned the other day that getting minima of 20C or higher is exceptionally rare - it's one of the ways to tell if the GFS, for example, has "gone off on one".

Here's the standing as of 5 AM GMT, courtesy of WeatherOnline:

London Oxford Airport (82 m)23.0 °C
St. Catherine's Point (24 m)21.0 °C
Thorney Island (3 m)20.0 °C
Isle of Portland (52 m)20.0 °C
Mumbles (32 m)20.0 °C

Now, as the overnight minimum is recorded up to 9 AM (IIRC), that means there's a while yet for things to cool down.

The Oxford entry is fake news btw... the actual low was around 15C!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Both local stations in gosport recorded min of 20.6C as for me I have yet to check my own but I suspect it will be similar.

In these circumstances using the met office is pointless as their nearest station is Thorney which is for all intents is located out in the sticks.

 

my location was 21.7C just checked.

Stormchaser
02 July 2018 10:43:06

Soared past the GFS maximum of 27*C at 11 am. Looking on course for the ARPEGE maximum of 30 or 31*C (depending on which run you look at).

Given how well it's been doing for here, I'm alarmed to see it taking me back into the 30s as soon as Thursday, but looking at the rain charts I see this is because hardly any showers are developed, which is in contrast to the 00z ECM and (especially) GFS runs.

 

I'm not convinced by GFS to say the least (excessive boundary layer moistening error), but I'm less sure about ECM, which does show some wide swathes of light returns which I presume are localised heavy showers being smeared out (so to speak) by the insufficient resolution (it's high, but not that high).

It's a battle of not that much moisture availability versus diurnal heating. The dryness of the upper layers of the soils and reduced transpiration from vegetation can come into play here; small margins make the difference with convective initiation during slack conditions.

Anyway, ECM has 25*C for me on that day and GFS only 23*C (but the 00z had 25*C like ECM). So shower coverage the main factor there I believe.

 

Regardless of all that, it looks to hot up again by the weekend, with ECM showing wide swathes into the 30s by Sunday and even wider swathes on Monday. Phwoar.


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2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

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Crepuscular Ray
02 July 2018 11:33:05
Just to add balance. Another chilly day in Scotland's Capital. 16 C at noon and dull 😝
Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

LeedsLad123
02 July 2018 11:38:43
I notice that Wednesday is now forecast to be cloudy and 21C here, very odd as before it showed 23C and sunshine. Not sure why it changed.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
speckledjim
02 July 2018 15:07:23

I notice that Wednesday is now forecast to be cloudy and 21C here, very odd as before it showed 23C and sunshine. Not sure why it changed.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

 

I bet it's higher than 21c......


Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

Arcus
02 July 2018 15:37:11

I notice that Wednesday is now forecast to be cloudy and 21C here, very odd as before it showed 23C and sunshine. Not sure why it changed.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

You wouldn't know it from the text forecast from MetO, but on their video it does look like crud from the N. Sea gets fed inland on Wednesday and hangs around for much of the day. We'll see.


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Gavin D
02 July 2018 15:49:47

Scotland has recorded its hottest day on record with 33.2C in Motherwell on June 28th breaking the old record of 32.9C set in August 2003

redmoons
02 July 2018 16:41:09

Scotland has recorded its hottest day on record with 33.2C in Motherwell on June 28th breaking the old record of 32.9C set in August 2003

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Is that the highest temperature so far this year in the UK?


Gavin D
02 July 2018 16:46:31

 

Is that the highest temperature so far this year in the UK?

Originally Posted by: redmoons 

Yes

Porthmadog was the last high hitting 32.6c

Jiries
02 July 2018 16:50:01

Despite being sunny and hot here while the winds were very strong as gale force winds making it hard to sit outside for long time.  Not sure why they say breezy when it look like gale force winds.

Ally Pally Snowman
02 July 2018 16:51:53

 

Yes

Porthmadog was the last high hitting 32.6c

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 

Porthmadog had got to 33.0c last week. Amazing that Scotland's all time temp record has gone.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
JHutch
02 July 2018 16:54:42

 

Yes

Porthmadog was the last high hitting 32.6c

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Still lower than the Motherwell report but it looks like Porthmadog reached 33.0 on Thursday 28th.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1012473689097596928

 

Don't think that anything higher than 30.5C has been unearthed from Northern Ireland last week so their all time record of 30.8C from 1976/1983 still stands.

Gavin D
02 July 2018 16:56:26

 

 

Porthmadog had got to 33.0c last week. Amazing that Scotland's all time temp record has gone.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Ahh. They revised that one up as well shortly after midnight

Last I heard it was 32.6c

doctormog
02 July 2018 17:11:32
I think the Motherwell value is still provisional (and therefore is likely to become an official record rather than currently being one).
springsunshine
02 July 2018 18:51:25

31c here today absolutely blistering following a sticky 30.5 yesterday and an overnight min of 20c no good for sleeping!

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
02 July 2018 20:29:47

 

In these circumstances using the met office is pointless as their nearest station is Thorney which is for all intents is located out in the sticks.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

But Thorney has acres of concrete runway to compensate?


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Ally Pally Snowman
02 July 2018 20:45:05

Hurn in Dorset was top spot today 31.1c . I don't ever remember a heatwave where the highest temp was so widely spread over the country . we've had Scotland, Wales London , NW and SW all topspots. I would suggest that's unique to this heatwave 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
RobR
  • RobR
  • Advanced Member
02 July 2018 21:24:57

Hurn in Dorset was top spot today 31.1c . I don't ever remember a heatwave where the highest temp was so widely spread over the country . we've had Scotland, Wales London , NW and SW all topspots. I would suggest that's unique to this heatwave 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

That is what makes this so interesting, day to day it changes and not the usual suspects (minus Porthmadog).


Winter 23/24 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 4

Days Snow Lying: 1

Deepest Snowfall: 3rd December 23 (2cm)

Winter 22/23 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 4

Days Snow Lying: 2

Deepest Snowfall: 10th March (3cm)

Latest Snowfall: 10th March

Winter 21/22 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 3

Days Snow Lying: 1

Deepest Snowfall: 28th November (3cm)

Latest Snowfall: 31st March

Winter 20/21 in Solihull

Days Snow Falling: 21

Days Snow Lying: 8

Deepest Snowfall: 24th January (9cm)

Latest Snowfall: 12th April

Winter 19/20 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 5

Days Snow Lying: 2

Deepest Snowfall: 10th Feb (5cm)

Winter 18/19 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 6

Days Snow Lying: 6

Deepest Snowfall: 29th Jan (3cm)

Winter 17/18 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 27

Days Snow Lying: 24

Deepest Snowfall: 18th March 2018 (10cm)

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
02 July 2018 23:01:19

 

That is what makes this so interesting, day to day it changes and not the usual suspects (minus Porthmadog).

Originally Posted by: RobR 

Yes, I agree. Proper equal opportunities heatwave. 

Notable by its absence is Gravesend Broadness. Not even close to top spot on any days. No warm tropical maritime WSW flow. Nor Manston, or Shoeburyness. It’s Retron’s perfect heatwave.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
picturesareme
02 July 2018 23:52:51

Hurn in Dorset was top spot today 31.1c . I don't ever remember a heatwave where the highest temp was so widely spread over the country . we've had Scotland, Wales London , NW and SW all topspots. I would suggest that's unique to this heatwave 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

No Heathrow was @ 31.8C :)

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