Not expecting a 1995 or 2006 July. But definately a very warm one.

Sent mine and I’ve gone above average too but I suspect not high enough as I have a feeling night time temps will be higher than they were in June.  Hopefully not uncomfortably high! 

GW, thank you for an excellent summary as always!  

Good luck everyone!  Here’s to another gloriously hot and sunny month!  

Going by my 5 year average so may be I shall be ok. 

Just scanning through the July predictions I have received so far. Looks like most people are following my lead and going all in - and why not with the output as it is at the moment! Never seen so many predictions above 18C. Lets just hope we don't end up with egg on our faces.

Worth remembering that we need night time minimums consistently in the teens to get a CET close to 19C. June ended up only just above 16C because of fairly cool nights. It is turning more humid today but that may not last.

Anyone want to be brave and go for 20C? You won't get better synoptics than we have at the moment.

Met Office Hadley         20.8c.      Anomaly       5.1c.  Provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                      19.0c       Anomaly       2.54c

Netweather                   20.96c     Anomaly       4.47c

Mansfield Woodhouse     17.9c.     Anomaly        -0.1c

Peasedown st John 20.7c.     Anomaly    3.07c.

10 Station Mean  20.28c.        

Consistently 2c above average since April remarkable run how long can it go in for?

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Met Office Hadley          20.9c.       Anomaly      5.3c.     Provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                       19.5c        Anomaly      2.69c

Netweather                    21,12c      Anomaly      4.63c

Alton                            20.8c        Anomaly      2.5c   

Canvey Island              20.1c        Anomaly      1.16c

Cheadle Hulme             22.0c        Anomaly      4.8c

Clevedon Weather         21.5c        Anomaly       3.02c

Hexam                         18.0c        Anomaly       1.7c

Mount Sorrel                 18.0c       Anomaly       0.32c

Mansfield Woodhouse 17.4c        Anomaly       -0.6c

Peasedown St John   22.9c.        Anomaly        4.36c

Treviskey   Redruth   18.8c         Anomaly        1.04c.    

Mean Of 10 Stations  19.95c. 

Met Office Hadley            20.1c.        Anomaly         4.6c. Provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                         18.55c       Anomaly         2.09c

Netweather                      20.33c       Anomaly         3.84c.

Mount Sorrel                   17.9c.        Anomaly         -0.1c

Mansfield Woodhouse      16.8c         Anomaly          -1.2c

Peasedown St John      21.3c.       Anomaly           2.76c.

10 station mean 19.57c.     

Latest CET tracker

Current estimate is 19.40C by the 18th. That is 3C above the 1981-2010 mean and 0.3C behind the all time July record. 

That estimate is almost certainly understated as the maximum temperatures will likely be higher than the figures that went into calculating the estimate. If (and it is a big if) this hot settled spell continues all month then we will almost certainly beat the 19.7C figure set in 2006 and could well challenge the magic 20C mark. It is going to be a very interesting month.

Interesting GW and nothing would surprise me this year because it’s thrown up some very different and exciting weather patterns altogether.  The question is, was anyone brave enough to predict/guess 20c?  

Yes we did have one brave punter in the end. Almost everyone went for over 18C

I won’t get a chance to post up the list until late Friday evening.

Met Office Hadley         19.6c.        Anomaly       4.2c.   Provisional to 4th.

Metcheck                      19.03c       Anomaly       2.57c

Netweather                  19.76c        Anomaly       3.27c

Cheadle Hulme            20.9c               @            3.7c

Darwen                       21.5c               @            3.84c

Mansfield Woodhouse  18.3c               @            0.3c

Peasedown St John      20.96              @            2.42c.

10 Station Mean  19.76c.                    

Met Office Hadley          19.7c.       Anomaly         4.2c. Provisional to 5th.

Metcheck                       19.29c      Anomaly          2.82c

Netweather                    19.99c      Anomaly          3.48c

Canvey Island                 20.2c       Anomaly          1.26c.

Darwen                          20.8c.      Anomaly           2.4c

Mansfield Woodhouse     18.3c       Anomaly          17.9c

Peasedown St John        22.65c.     Anomaly         4.11c.

10 Station Mean     19.49c.     

Here are the daily maximum temperatures for 2018 so far. The June figures are provisional as the information from manual stations is not yet available. 

Despite the very warm weather over the past three months we have only set one CET date record which was on the 19th April when we smashed the previous record and had the second warmest April day ever.

 JAN

 FEB

 MAR

 APR

 MAY

 JUN

Current CET tracker is suggesting 18.86C by the 21st. So a gradual fall potentially although I suspect the maximum temperatures may turn out to be higher than is currently shown by the models.

Yes. The models generally underplay maxes by 2 to 3c in dry and settled setups. This month has the potential to fall into the 'exceptional' category. 

The CET areas with its NW biase is favoutably located ( thanks to the mean position of the HP cell) to avoid some of the cooling influences off an easterly that will affect locations further south at times.

Met Office Hadley           19.7c.     Anomaly      4.1c. Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                        19.59c    Anomaly      3.13c

Netweather                     20.08c    Anomaly      3.59c.

Alton                              21.0c      Anomaly      2.7c

Darwen                           21.4c     Anomaly       3.74c

Mansfield Woodhouse      20.1c      Anomaly       2.42c

Peasedown St John    21.38c      Anomaly        2.69c

Treviskey Redruth           18.4c     Anomaly        0.94c.

Mean Of My Watched 10  Stations    20.20c.

Here are the July predictions. Quite a narrow range considering how far we are likely to be from the long run mean this month. Most people going for between 18.1C and 19.1C

JULY TABLE

Met Office Hadley           19.9c.      Anomaly       4.2c.     provisional to 7th

Metcheck                        19.85c     Anomaly       3.39c

Netweather                     20.26c     Anomaly       3.77c

Hexam                      19.1c         Anomaly        2.8c

Mansfield Woodhouse  19.2c       Anomaly      1.2c

Peasedown St John    22.1c      Anomaly     3.56c

Treviskey Redruth    18.7c       Anomaly    1.24c

10 Station Mean   20.49c.  

Plopping the 30 year mean in there was a good idea- like that; it immediately shows how we are (almost) all confident of something a bit special- or how we've put faith in the models. It's certainly online to deliver at the moment. Thanks again GW.

Met Office Hadley        20.1c.       Anomaly      4.3c. Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                     20.16c      Anomaly      3.59c

Netweather                  20.44c      Anomaly      3.95c

Darwen                     21.7c        Anomaly    4.04c

Mansfield Woodhouse    19.4c     Anomaly    1.44c

Peasedown St John      21.65c.     Anomaly    3.11c

 10 station mean 20.66c.