Equally, it'll be interesting to see how the very dry ground will contribute to potentially very high maxima next week as virtually all of the incoming (maximum) solar energy can be used to lift the air temperature rather than evaporate moisture - as is normally the case in the UK. With the GFS progging max's of 30C by mid to late week - I'd fancy adding about 3 degrees to that for some parts.

All of course with the big caveat that the set-up actually comes off.....

Heres the grass in my local park:

And here’s the same shot on 25th June 2015:

Pretty similar, and it happens at some stage pretty much every year. 2015 went downhill after 1 July. What will happen this time?

Here’s my idea of the perfect brown grass scene. Field near Cluny in Burgundy, late July 2015:

The near continent is soaking wet so I think this will mean in situ heating here is more effective, but affected southerlies will be less hot.

EDIT: those French soils are getting a very good dry out this week:

It has been a very dry month so far and a dry spring too. 2% of rain this month so far. Recent sea fog that has come quite a long way inland is as I've said before often a precursor to a notable hot spell and the Met office are now quite bullish about it becoming hot next week.

No sign of notable rain for two weeks or more now I've just heard on BBC.

Next week's really looking quite exciting.
I do remember a few situations in recent summers where something looking rather like this collapsed or was shortened at the last minute, but I'd be very surprised if we didn't get one or two 30Cs out of this even if the models take a turn for the worst . I have now jinxed the summer, of course.

The key thing for this season, though, will be what happens after this upcoming spell. If that's it, and the rest of the summer is average or worse, then it will soon fade into memory as something only of note to nostalgic weather buffs like us. If we get more of the same - not a reload of the same event but a return of heatwave conditions sometime in July after the next breakdown - then 2018 will be passing into the territory of notable summers because May, June and July will all be above average months even if August doesn't deliver (see 1994, 2006).

EDIT: I apologise for my jinxing. GEM ENS P02 should give everyone cause for reflection. It's not a done deal yet.

...and P03, and P19... though weirdly the ensembles are out but not the op run

Tim, i think we can get 30C to 31C next week with uppers of 13-14C as I recoded 33C when it was only 14C because the ground was already dry and yellowish.  This morning sho no rain at all for rest of June so temps can be higher and daily 30C possible from late next week to the weekend.  I rather take this than quickie 15 to 20C uppers follow by poor weather quickly.  

Darren:

Do you have any idea how the claimte of Lower Stoke be like as it well inland fom Isle of Grain and going to move there as I found a house which sit right to vast farm lands and all very flat.  I wonder how hot it can reach there and how cold at nights due to open lands.   I only see the data for Grain which only reached 30C because it right on the coast.  I remember your place saw temps up to 36C in 2003 for Isle of Sheppney?  When i went there for the house viewing the temps was 19C during the easterly spell then rose to 22C on the A2 near Bluewater on th way back.  I would understand when there easterly Lower stoke get cooler but how hot it can get when winds are from SE to SW direction.  I recalled your posts that you get very hot days when winds are from S direction.

Still, I suppose you don't get those pleasantly warm evenings with this.

There's a bit more water to cool down southerlies / SW'lies there, but it'd still be pretty warm if you can cancel out the sea breeze. 2003 saw SW'lies with that exceptionally hot air, albeit by the evening the sea breeze was able to over-ride it (with a corresponding 13C temperature drop in a matter of a minute or two!)

Night times won't be especially close as you've the Medway nearby, albeit in the middle of the Hoo peninsula you will get more frosts than I do in Leysdown.

If it can carry on to be around in late July and through August, I'll be made up. But the best 'good' spells of summer in recent years (2006, 2013, 2014) have all happened too early.

In these parts, the amount of sun beaming down on the surfaces will make for a significant change of tune compared to the dry patterns up to yesterday; sun totals were actually running a bit below average.

With that sun comes the likelihood of vegetation becoming tinder-dry. As a result, if we see a keen easterly breeze next weekend as per the latest model consensus, then I believe there will be a substantial wildfire risk - it only takes one idiot getting a camp BBQ wrong or even throwing a cigarette out the window (thankfully less common now with the rise of vaping).

Or... a lightning strike, which makes me less enthusiastic than usual about any thunderstorm potential that turns up, despite the benefits some rain would bring. After all, downpours (unless prolonged... but then you have another set of problems!) are a poor way to go about ending a drought, as a lot of the water tends to just run over the top of the hard-baked surfaces.

This is really turning into a great summer. Long may it continue.

I am not fussed by things getting dry - Just remember the old saying: "Be it dry -  be it wet - nature always repays its debt".

Today is really sparkling. Reminds me of the early May bank holiday weekend, particularly Saturday which was a touch on the cool side but beautifully sunny. The few shallow cumulus clouds are so diddy they really don't have any effect on the sunshine totals. The lack of warm evenings is indeed the issue but next week should compensate for that.

My local park has moved from Defcon 2.0 to Defcon 2.5. Definitely not at 3 yet (cut grass completely yellow, uncut grass green) but it's advanced a bit since early in the week. Getting that scruffy look where certain lawn weeds continue growing but the grass stays short. I expect us to hit 3 by end of next week.

Even the long grass is struggling here already; at least half of it has browned.

The unusual thing about this summer is that if you look at the background forcing, we've been riding our luck a bit so far this month, as it's been in a mixed state... yet now it's becoming increasingly supportive, and expected to continue that trend through a good part of July, which given lagged effects means that in theory, at least the southern half of the UK should have a fairly good chance of not only doing well next month, but avoiding a poor August too. Which would mean the first summer in as long as I can remember to be decent across the board.

Please don't quote me on that August estimation yet, though .

Agreed. 1995 also started off with a very cool start to June, but only really got going in July. Still a stand out summer though!

Here are the best recent summers since 1945 by weighted average over the three summer months from the CET series. I have included 2013 for comparison:

1976: 17.8

1995: 17.4

2003: 17.3

2006: 17.2

1983: 17.1

1947: 17.0

2013: 16.3

So even though August 2006 was poor, it still comes out at 17.2, due no doubt to the warmest CET month ever recorded (July being 19.7).

Yesterday's biggest range that I can find was 20 degrees at Benson. Excluding Benson, which is a notorious frost hollow, the next biggest was Pershore with 18C (max 23, min 5).

Some very cold minima again this morning. Not great for the CET but good for opening windows and pre-chilling houses indoors before the heat next week.

Wow!! I guess it won't be long then before the low humidity thread which Retron recently started for reporting that sort of thing is brought back to life once again.

Thanks for the reply and yes I am leaving Epsom as dad selling the house and splitting up so I go to Kent as I always like to live there if I cannot move abroad.  Dad and my brother and his family are moving to Letchworth. I would wanted to move to Gravesend but house prices are a bit too high from my budget of 215000 which I found one in Lower Stoke,  didn't like Chatham due to narrow crowded roads and too hilly which you can see it become so flat once leave the area to the east with very little traffic on the road.  I will find out once I get a basic weather station and then compare with Gravesend and Isle of Grain maxes.  The owner of the house put all fans in the ceiling that I never had so I assumed it can get pretty hot there.

Winter should be very interesting and eager to find out when we get next Beast from the East and on the path for snow showers to come in.

Since we are approaching the end of the month now, here is my take on how this summer has gone so far.

In line with how the CET is going, this summer has been warmer than average so far at Edinburgh Gogarbank though not by such a big anomaly due to those earlier easterlies which pegged back the temperatures by quite a bit on the east coast, especially during the day. That effect was even more noticeable at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh due to its closer proximity to the east coast and because of that, this summer has actually been very slightly cooler than average at that station so far. Having said that though, some very warm temperatures have been forecast for the week ahead and that should ensure that this month ends up being warmer than average at both of those stations (I've left out Edinburgh Airport here since that isn't an official Met Office station). Since one of the key ingredients for a decent summer is that it should be warmer than average, we are doing OK in that department so far.

As far as rainfall is concerned, it has been dry for the vast majority of this month but when it has rained, it has really rained with quite a big rainfall event occurring just last week. This means that whilst the rainfall totals are slightly below average here, it is nowhere near as dry here as it has been in the vast majority of the UK. In fact, we are already just 4.9 mm short of the 1981-2010 average at Edinburgh Gogarbank which is close enough to that average, for that to be considered as average to all intents and purposes. If it doesn't rain between now and the end of the month (which is what has been forecast), we will therefore end up with about average rainfall here (albeit slightly drier than average). If those forecasts are the least bit wrong though, this month will then end up being wetter than average but even if that happens, it won't be doing to to the same extent as it did last year at this time. One of the key things which make up a decent summer is that it should be drier than average. It looks as though we will just scrape though there in terms of rainfall amounts whilst the number of official rain days should end up being more definitively lower than average. Again, this is another department where we are doing OK overall so far.

The big let-down of this summer as in recent years has been sunshine totals. When we had those earlier easterlies, every day was starting off dull and overcast due to easterly muck coming in from off the North Sea. On most days, the strong June sunshine would mean this would burn back to leave a sunny afternoon with that sometimes extending into the evening although there was also the odd day when this failed to happen, thus resulting in that North Sea muck being around virtually all day. Even when we then went into more of a zonal weather pattern for a while (which then resulted in the presence of Storm Hector), there was still quite a lot of cloud around, thus leading to some very poor sunshine totals That has led to this month being duller than average whereas one of the key ingredients for a decent summer is that it should be sunnier than average. If the forecasts are correct though with the week ahead being warm and sunny, it is still possible that we could yet get away with a slightly sunnier than average month but as at 7am this morning, we still need at least another 43.2 hours of sunshine for that to happen at Edinburgh Gogarbank. That will take some doing but given the latest forecasts, this is something which can't be ruled out.

So overall, this summer has been OK so far, and has certainly been a lot better than what we experienced last year at this time. Given the current low solar activity and the cold SSTs in the Atlantic, this is something which I was not expecting to happen. Six months on from now, a lot of us will be hoping for a white Christmas and a cold start to the winter but doing so with the cold reality that the chances of that happening are usually quite small since the coldest winter weather on average, doesn't normally come until around January/February. Going by that, we would therefore expect this time of year to be the exact opposite of that with the hottest weather not occurring until July/August. On that basis, I think we have to say that we have actually done quite well during this summer so far especially since we are still on course for this to possibly end up going down as a decent summer overall (and possibly even a classic one) which wasn't the case at this time last year. However, there is still a long way to go here. It might not necessarily end up that way and so, I'm not going to get too complacent about that just yet.

Just noticed my station is showing just a 29% RH reading right now, the lowest I can remember in my records. Temp is 23.9. Dew point 5c. 

Absolutely Scott what a stunning day today has been  Long may it continue 

I agree with that as well (I am saying that after we have just had our sunniest day of the year so far at Edinburgh Gogarbank, and the warmest day of the year so far at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh which I imagine, would be looking very spectacular in this weather),.

To me, it's nice as well to be getting some decent summer weather during the actual summer itself for once instead of what we have been seeing in other recent years where we would get a lot of this kind of weather during the spring and autumn months when that is more out of season, with very little of this kind of weather actually happening at this time of year.

Furthermore, I'm not so sure that so many people would be so bothered about going abroad for their holidays if we got weather like this all the time.