The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
12 June 2018 18:30:38

Sadly this is turning into another wrist-slittingly awful summer as feared. Just as in 2014, 2015 and 2016 June has descended into permacast hell following a decent start.

Anything from the North or North West is far worse than an easterly now as all it seems to result in is an endless train of cloud: the purely 21st Century phenomenon of June permacast. At least most days with the easterlies saw the cloud burn off or break up.

Five days in a row now I have woken up to dismal slate grey skies and for the past three days they have stuck around all day bar a totally pointless late clearance at 8pm yesterday and several failed attempts to break up today.

This weather is completely and utterly useless. At least farmers and gardeners would benefit from rain. This is no good to anyone. It’s just depressing and unpleasant. A complete waste of the long days as has been the case at this time of year for what seems like an eternity.

It hasn’t reached a modest 17C in over a week either, so two of the three ingredients that have made summers so unbearable over the past 11 years – gloom and lack of warmth are already present. Just need the excessive rain to complete the toxic trio

Originally Posted by: richardabdn 

A couple of days ago you said the first 10 days of June were excellent for sunshine, now it's 'wrist-slittingly awful'. I don't see how 2 days of cloudy weather can change your perspective on the summer (what little there has been so far) to such a drastic extent.


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Bertwhistle
12 June 2018 19:59:28

 

I also noticed we didn't get any 30C day yet despite perfect set-up but was blocked like last week and again this week with over cast skies, damp and cool despite uppers levels that support temps up to 30C.  April still have the hottest day of the year so far and hope not last one.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Scholarly research on SSW events is young,recent. I doubt a wise scientist would put a head over the parapet and claim to know it all. The weather we had in March followed an extreme SSW event. Current juvenile SSW science limits SSW effects in our lat & long time-wise; this would be a good focus for further studies & publication as it's not inconceivable that effects could get 'stuck in a rut' due to poorly-understood +ve feedback mechanisms, and therefore perpetuate , sya, an anomalous easterly influence for longer.

Easterlies, Jiries, that bring stuff up the Thames if the conditions are humid. Our May high beat our April high and I bet there are those in the W,SW and Scotland that could say the same.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Bertwhistle
12 June 2018 20:03:04

June has got off to an excellent start with sunshine – 90.6 hours in the first 10 days - but unfortunately we have now reached what has not only been the worst period of summer, over the past decade, but just about the worst period of the entire year.

This weekend was dreadful – the worst since March – and the concern is that the June permacast has now set in. The middle third of June has been simply vile over the past 11 years. Not a single year when it could be described as good while only 2009 and 2010 had a good final third.

Here’s the breakdown of sunshine and it shows just how much things deteriorate after the 10th:

Those averages are simply a disgrace, illustrating how  awful without precedent the month of June has become. Average used to be around 190 hours in the early to mid 20th Century, dropping to 175 hours by the end of the 20th Century. The current levels just defy belief.

It’s been 15 years since June last managed 200 hours. Prior to this the longest run was only 10 years and that was fairly recent (1976-85). Before that there had never been more than five (1950-54), again showing the drastic deterioration in this month.

Looking at those figures only 2008 and 2009 recorded as much as 109 hours between the 11th and 30th, which is the amount required for this month to hit 200 hours. Levels as poor as 2007, 2012, 2014 and 2016 for the rest of the month would see it turn out duller than average despite the good start.

Originally Posted by: richardabdn 

So 76 to 85 was better than anything since 50 -54? Good news, then: oscillations, rather than trends.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Frank H
12 June 2018 20:10:02

The great sunny spell of weather here looks like coming to an end in the next day or so.

But does anyone know which location recorded the most hours of sunshine last month (I know May is spring and this is a summer thread).

Did anywhere record the magic 300 hours ?


Wrightington, Wigan
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
13 June 2018 15:28:23
Things that say we’ve had a pattern change today:

- I woke up to sunshine this morning for the first time in many days

- There is actual high cloud in the sky

- The warmest place in the U.K. is Cambridge, and the coldest is Stornaway

- Britain is generating more than 5gw of wind power for the first time since mid May

- The GFS ens average goes up and down like a yo-yo rather than flatlining


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Gray-Wolf
13 June 2018 15:41:50

I wonder if my water butt will actually see some water overnight?

Having the flood alleviation works going on full bore is no fun in the dry that we've had as the dust covering everything will attest to!!!

A full water butt then back to a big ,hot, blocking high for the rest of summer( Thunderstorms as required for Butt filling).

France and the far North can share the summer Monsoon this year!


Koyaanisqatsi

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Bolty
  • Bolty
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
16 June 2018 10:52:36
This is the first generally really poor day of this summer so far, around here. Just 13C at almost midday and feeling pretty cold compared to late. Still, at least it's only looking like a temporary spell.
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

ARTzeman
16 June 2018 11:31:37

Midsummer Solstice Next week and my jumper is back on already... And it is raining.... 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Saint Snow
16 June 2018 11:51:24

This is the first generally really poor day of this summer so far, around here. Just 13C at almost midday and feeling pretty cold compared to late. Still, at least it's only looking like a temporary spell.

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

 

It's cos I'm not there.

(In Peterborough for a cheer comp - the daughters competing, not me, before people get excited)


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
16 June 2018 19:12:41

It was a strangely cool and meh day today.

The rest of June is an enigma. After next week’s brief warm spell in the South the models all suggest very dry, anticyclonic but quite cool (well, average or a smidge above). I just don’t quite believe them. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this turns into either a progressive deterioration into a pants summer, or a proper late June heatwave.

It’s all quite June 1995 looking, which is both encouraging and dangerous because weather never repeats that faithfully.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
johncs2016
16 June 2018 19:42:21

It was a strangely cool and meh day today.

The rest of June is an enigma. After next week’s brief warm spell in the South the models all suggest very dry, anticyclonic but quite cool (well, average or a smidge above). I just don’t quite believe them. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this turns into either a progressive deterioration into a pants summer, or a proper late June heatwave.

It’s all quite June 1995 looking, which is both encouraging and dangerous because weather never repeats that faithfully.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Given the amount of rain which we've had here in Edinburgh today, it wouldn't surprise me if our so-called "summer" (and today, certainly doesn't feel anything like summer with the cool temperatures which we are experiencing IMBY just now) has already gone down the toilet pan (it certainly has, as far as today is concerned).

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

cultman1
17 June 2018 06:34:08
Looking at the Met Office App for London over the coming week it is not looking that warm one or two days reasonable temperatures granted but otherwise 17-20 degrees with quite a lot of cloud especially Thursday and beyond .
richardabdn
17 June 2018 07:43:27

Summer has certainly gone down the toilet here. I said an extreme sunshine collapse would happen and yet again I’ve been proved correct in this tedious era in which everything is the same year in year out.


First eight days of the month managed a spectacular 86.4 hours sun then the entirely recent phenomenon of June permacast struck once more to give a dismal total of just 25.1 hours for the past eight days.


Let’s compare that with the results from the three darkest months:
9th-16th November 2017: 37.5hrs
9th-16th December 2017: 26.7hrs
9th-16th January 2018: 13.5hrs


Only January prevented the dark months winning a hat-trick of victories over the vile month of June. However in percentage terms January still put in a more creditable performance than what’s been endured over the past eight days.


That this nonsense is now occurring every pretty much every year, can only be greeted with feelings of revulsion, disbelief and horror. How on earth can the period of the year with the longest daylight constantly record less sunshine than when the days are at their shortest? It is the time of year which should be offering the greatest opportunity for outdoor activities but frequently offers the least.


I’d be surprised now if June can even make average sunshine never mind turn out a long overdue sunny month. I’ve given up even checking model output. What’s the point when it is the same cloud infested horror show regardless


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything

2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November

2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits

2025 - The Weekend Curse hell intensifies

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
17 June 2018 07:49:16

Summer has certainly gone down the toilet here.

Originally Posted by: richardabdn 

Isn't there a moaning thread for this kind of thing?


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

johncs2016
17 June 2018 08:15:30

 

Isn't there a moaning thread for this kind of thing?

Originally Posted by: Col 

Thanks for reminding me about that. I know that it was Bolty's idea to start this thread which I think, is quite a good idea.

However, I feel that as a result of that, a lot of people may well have forgotten that the moaning thread is still available for anyone who wishes to vent their feelings there.

That in turn had lead to it having only two posts so far before this morning (my own opening post plus one reply from Bolty) which in turn, had led to the moaning thread being relegated to page 3 in the default list of threads on this forum.

To me, each season's moaning thread has until now, always played quite a pivotal role on this forum since I first joined and I see no reason why it shouldn't continue to do so.

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Brian Gaze
17 June 2018 08:26:33
I've been in the Dordogne for the last few weeks. Utterly awful weather much of the time. Storms followed by cooler condition with periods of rain. The colour of the Dordogne is brown due to mud / silt being brought to the surface by the heavy rains. Rubbish weather is following me this spring / summer and now I'm back in the UK. Drought fears should soon fade!
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

KevBrads1
17 June 2018 08:49:46

Looks like the driest first half to June for England and Wales since 2006 and with GFS 0z op run looking very dry and ECM doesn't look too wet,  it could be a dry maybe a very dry June. 

Noticing now how brown the grass is in places 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Nick Gilly
17 June 2018 15:56:47

Looks like the driest first half to June for England and Wales since 2006 and with GFS 0z op run looking very dry and ECM doesn't look too wet,  it could be a dry maybe a very dry June. 

Noticing now how brown the grass is in places 

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

Yes. The GFS runs I've seen recently have been absolutely dominated by high pressure. This could be turning into an extended dry spell/drought for many.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
17 June 2018 17:46:39

I've been in the Dordogne for the last few weeks. Utterly awful weather much of the time. Storms followed by cooler condition with periods of rain. The colour of the Dordogne is brown due to mud / silt being brought to the surface by the heavy rains. Rubbish weather is following me this spring / summer and now I'm back in the UK. Drought fears should soon fade!

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Ive been following the French weather and as you say, it’s been vile, putrid, Aberdonian in the Southern half of the country for a month at least. May and early June is the wettest time of year on average across much of Central France (though not so much Aquitaine where the Dordogne is) and they have had a flabby shallow low and thunder (and abnormally dull conditions) while the North and West of the U.K. had that flabby high. My place in the Maconnais has been relatively dry - ie about average - as it’s sheltered by the Alps and Jura in Easterlies. It’s not been cold by any means, about 2C warmer than average in the East and closer to average in the West. Dull everywhere.

The soil moisture anomalies tell the story:

http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/edov2/php/index.php?id=1111

Things are looking more seasonal there now but certainly not heatwave levels any time soon. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Jiries
17 June 2018 19:19:26

 

Ive been following the French weather and as you say, it’s been vile, putrid, Aberdonian in the Southern half of the country for a month at least. May and early June is the wettest time of year on average across much of Central France (though not so much Aquitaine where the Dordogne is) and they have had a flabby shallow low and thunder (and abnormally dull conditions) while the North and West of the U.K. had that flabby high. My place in the Maconnais has been relatively dry - ie about average - as it’s sheltered by the Alps and Jura in Easterlies. It’s not been cold by any means, about 2C warmer than average in the East and closer to average in the West. Dull everywhere.

The soil moisture anomalies tell the story:

http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/edov2/php/index.php?id=1111

Things are looking more seasonal there now but certainly not heatwave levels any time soon. 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

If the jet stream are already far north which so far keeping us in good weather why France and Spain had been very poor as it should be very hot and dry on that set-up, and because of there no hot weather there we cannot obtain a 30C day here only local home grown high 20's available for us.  Only in April was hot source from Spain when it was already hot there as it would not reach home grown heat of 29C.

Bertwhistle
17 June 2018 19:47:08

 

Thanks for reminding me about that. I know that it was Bolty's idea to start this thread which I think, is quite a good idea.

However, I feel that as a result of that, a lot of people may well have forgotten that the moaning thread is still available for anyone who wishes to vent their feelings there.

That in turn had lead to it having only two posts so far before this morning (my own opening post plus one reply from Bolty) which in turn, had led to the moaning thread being relegated to page 3 in the default list of threads on this forum.

To me, each season's moaning thread has until now, always played quite a pivotal role on this forum since I first joined and I see no reason why it shouldn't continue to do so.

 

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

Perhaps, on a broader scale, there isn't quite so much to moan about? Which might, notwithstanding the regional variations which might be expected, represent a good start to summer, on a broadly national basis, but of course with consideration for the deviations from this on a regional and local scale.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

johncs2016
17 June 2018 20:02:02

 

Perhaps, on a broader scale, there isn't quite so much to moan about? Which might, notwithstanding the regional variations which might be expected, represent a good start to summer, on a broadly national basis, but of course with consideration for the deviations from this on a regional and local scale.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

But then, we also had quite a good end to the winter with Beast From The East Part One and yet, that didn't prevent the last winter moaning thread from remaining busy well into the start of the meteorological spring.

My gut feel though is that this "good" start to the summer which you mentioned won't last for long and when everything starts to generally go more down the the toilet pan, that is when this year's summer moaning thread will become a lot busier. After all, even Gavin P. in his summer forecast video predicted that this would actually be a front-loaded summer with the best weather occurring during this month before a gradual deterioration in the overall pattern set in after that.

Having said that though, the concept of having this thread to chat more generally about what this summer has been like and then also having the moaning thread for people to have a good moan about whatever they're not happy about is quite a good one. I'm just surprised that Richard from Aberdeen (for example) doesn't make much use of the moaning thread these days since he usually has plenty to moan about.

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
17 June 2018 20:09:56
On the topic of usual summer thenes and absorbing them into general chat, the grass around me in SE London is just starting to turn yellow.

Blackheath is always the first mover as it’s so exposed and close cropped. It’s got that olive green tint with patches of proper yellow where people have walked.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
speckledjim
18 June 2018 07:30:35
Very dry here with only 4mm of rain following on from a dry May.....looks like it's going to continue with high pressure building this week
Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

Stormchaser
18 June 2018 11:29:03

Just for the record (even if only temporary...) - the grass has been turning notably brown here since the mid-point of the month, and I actually have to look all the way back to spring 2012 to find the last time it was so pronounced as it is now (a few thundery interludes limited the browning last May-June).

With powder-dry soil in abundance, it will be interesting to see how much temperatures still manage to vary between night and day during the polar maritime* incursion of Thu-Sat, despite it being very breezy.

 

* the airmass, not the TWO member 


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Remove ads from site