The Weather Outlook

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andy-manc
08 June 2018 12:34:29

I feel we are owed a hell of a lot of sympathy from winters and summers if we should be sparing a thought for those outside of Greater Manchester right now! Have to say, I don't give a monkeys what it's like anywhere else after the depressing weather we endure through all seasons. Let's be honest too, normal service will most likely resume fairly soon so I'm sure everyone will get their turn. 

The weather today is cloudy but it still feels pleasant and dry. I'd even take this over our usual squelchy garden fest.

bradders
08 June 2018 12:47:49

I like dry sunny weather as much as everyone else but doesn`t anybody worry about water shortages later in the summer if this weather continues?

I`ve not heard of any new reservoirs being built, despite the ever increasing population.


Eric. Cheadle Hulme, Stockport.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
08 June 2018 12:56:16

Some remarkable stats for the last few days.

1. Warmest place in the UK:

1st June Aviemore, Aboyne 27C
2nd Strathallan, Glasgow Bishopton 25C
3rd Northolt, Heathrow, SJP, Charlwood 27C
4th Chivenor 25C
5th Castlederg, NI 23C
6th Bournemouth, Glasgow, Castlederg 25C
7th Castlederg, Glasgow Bishopton, Glenanne 25C

Except for the 3rd the warmest place has been well outside the South East. In recent years that has been very unusual. What's also unusual is that on the 5th and 7th the warmest place in the British Isles has been Shannon Airport in Eire.

2. Sunshine totals

1st Aberdeen 15hr
2nd Bournemouth 13hr
3rd Bournemouth, Aberporth, IoM 13hr
4th Valley 15hr
5th Stornoway, Kirkwall 16hr
6th Prestwick 16hr
7th Eskdalemuir 16hr


(In that period Heathrow has recorded a total of 37 hours - just over 5 per day).


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
08 June 2018 17:19:39

The West and East get their sunshine differently though. At the risk of oversimplification, most days are probably cloudier on average in the West, but things move more slowly in the East so when you get North Sea muck it goes on, and on, and on and you have truly sunless weeks (especially in winter).

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Try warm sector drizzle/murk/gloom in winter.

 


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
08 June 2018 19:02:41

Try warm sector drizzle/murk/gloom in winter.

Originally Posted by: Col 

We all get that. This is Britain after all.

Today’s U.K. max 24C at Glenanne, Northern Ireland. 25C in Shannon Airport, again.

By the way looking at late May the winners in the last 5 days were Crosby, Tulloch Bridge, Altbea, Glasgow and Altnaharra. Wow.

Last time the true westerly champion Gravesend Broadness got the palm: 11th May (19C).


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Chunky Pea
09 June 2018 11:24:39

Mercifully cooler today here with current temp of 16.7c. Cloudy but dry and feeling much more pleasant than recently. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
10 June 2018 05:12:18

 

We all get that. This is Britain after all.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Very true, but the west gets it considerably more than the east. Days of low cloud and drizzle whereas in the east the cloud often breaks to give hazy sun or even foehn type conditions. And the west can get easterly muck too of course.


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

KevBrads1
10 June 2018 05:46:43

Sunshine levels since the 19th April have been pretty remarkable. Close to eight and half hours per day on average since the start of May. Timelapses in that period have been basically blue skies and setting suns.

The ground is very dry, a lot of dusty cracked ground about.


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
10 June 2018 07:15:21
Yet again the warmest and sunniest places in the U.K. yesterday were North and West: 24C at Belfast airport and 14hrs sun at Valley.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
10 June 2018 07:26:50

Sunshine levels since the 19th April have been pretty remarkable. Close to eight and half hours per day on average since the start of May. Timelapses in that period have been basically blue skies and setting suns.

The ground is very dry, a lot of dusty cracked ground about.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

How is your Manchester summer index doing? Quite well I assume.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
KevBrads1
10 June 2018 07:48:55

 

How is your Manchester summer index doing? Quite well I assume.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

218 up to yesterday


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

richardabdn
10 June 2018 19:04:58

June has got off to an excellent start with sunshine – 90.6 hours in the first 10 days - but unfortunately we have now reached what has not only been the worst period of summer, over the past decade, but just about the worst period of the entire year.

This weekend was dreadful – the worst since March – and the concern is that the June permacast has now set in. The middle third of June has been simply vile over the past 11 years. Not a single year when it could be described as good while only 2009 and 2010 had a good final third.

Here’s the breakdown of sunshine and it shows just how much things deteriorate after the 10th:

Those averages are simply a disgrace, illustrating how  awful without precedent the month of June has become. Average used to be around 190 hours in the early to mid 20th Century, dropping to 175 hours by the end of the 20th Century. The current levels just defy belief.

It’s been 15 years since June last managed 200 hours. Prior to this the longest run was only 10 years and that was fairly recent (1976-85). Before that there had never been more than five (1950-54), again showing the drastic deterioration in this month.

Looking at those figures only 2008 and 2009 recorded as much as 109 hours between the 11th and 30th, which is the amount required for this month to hit 200 hours. Levels as poor as 2007, 2012, 2014 and 2016 for the rest of the month would see it turn out duller than average despite the good start.


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything

2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November

2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits

2025 - The Weekend Curse hell intensifies

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
10 June 2018 21:07:38
Fascinating stats Richard. Something is afoot, but assuming this trend is dominated by low cloud and haar, which of the following possible explanations are supported by stats?

- Shift in wind direction from offshore to onshore

- Colder SSTs

- Warmer more humid air masses / 850hpa temps

- Greater levels of atmospheric particulates?


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
11 June 2018 04:17:10

June has got off to an excellent start with sunshine – 90.6 hours in the first 10 days - but unfortunately we have now reached what has not only been the worst period of summer, over the past decade, but just about the worst period of the entire year.

This weekend was dreadful – the worst since March – and the concern is that the June permacast has now set in.

Originally Posted by: richardabdn 

 

I would have thought though as we are soon to be entering a westerly regime that there won't be any June 'permacast'. Yes, it will be wet at times but a more mobile regime should ensure a resonable amount of sun as well, especially as you are in the east.


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Crepuscular Ray
11 June 2018 06:44:23
Looking forward to Edinburgh losing its easterlies after so many weeks. I've spent a lot of this unusual spell in the Lakes which has been very warm and very sunny throughout May and June with hardly any rain. The same has been true for western Scotland. These areas are desperate for rainfall which I'm sure will arrive from the west soon. I'm in the Lakes now, my 3rd week since 1 May and havent had a day of rain or a max of less than 20 C 😲
Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

LeedsLad123
11 June 2018 09:04:34
Looking forward to the Lake District getting all the rain it deserves!
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
ARTzeman
11 June 2018 10:14:55

Waiting for the westerlies to return. Had enough easterlies from over the valley.  




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Saint Snow
11 June 2018 10:47:02

I'm going to miss this spell of weather - nice for once to be in one of the favoured spots.

To be honest, I'd be happy to take unsettled weather for the next month as long as we got the rest of July & all of August to return what we've just had.

 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

andy-manc
11 June 2018 22:02:44

I too will miss this spell of weather. It's been so settled and pleasant. I have just been looking through my pictures and it is lovely to see so many fanily days out in the sun. We have somehow managed to avoid every drop of rain here for the past 3 weeks or so in a similar way to how we avoided every bit of snow in winter but this time it works for me!

I took a walk yesterday at somewhere called Pennington Flash and the ground is cracked and dusty and the grass is all dead. It's a strange sight for these parts.

I'd be perfectly happy with two or three weeks of unsettled weather now followed by a settled spell in July into August. I'd love a nice second half of July and first half of August for a change because that to me should be summer but it rarely is.

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
12 June 2018 06:33:00

It’s been a great spell of spring and early summer weather here too though not all wall to wall sunshine. We even missed 99.9% of the thunder storms with just one very distant rumble a few weeks ago and the recent forecast apocalyptic amber warning never came to anything at all for Dorset. It all sort of fizzled out as it approached from the south.

Rain would be welcome but I hope it’s a short term blip in what could be a memorable summer. Yesterday was a fantastic day with those beautiful deep blue skies and temps in the mid 20’sC again. A summer like '76 would be fine by me without water rationing of course.

That forecast deep low near Scotland later in the week surely needs a name?


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Chunky Pea
12 June 2018 09:56:14

Richard from Aberdeen might find this chart interesting, as it shows the changes (relative to average) to the MSLP values over Europe & the north Atlantic for the month June since 2007. With average pressure tending lower to the SW, and higher to the north, this does show that the potential for unfavourable wind directions for eastern Scotland would possibly have increased during this period:

 

 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Saint Snow
12 June 2018 10:32:13

I took a walk yesterday at somewhere called Pennington Flash and the ground is cracked and dusty and the grass is all dead. It's a strange sight for these parts.

Originally Posted by: andy-manc 

 

LOL! I know it well (played golf on there numerous times) and for the ground underfoot not to be soggy is indeed a rarity.

 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

RobR
  • RobR
  • Advanced Member
12 June 2018 11:34:18

I imagine the Peak bogs of the Pennines are dry and cracked too which will be unusual (though it happened last May too!), but I believe is rare.


Winter 23/24 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 4

Days Snow Lying: 1

Deepest Snowfall: 3rd December 23 (2cm)

Winter 22/23 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 4

Days Snow Lying: 2

Deepest Snowfall: 10th March (3cm)

Latest Snowfall: 10th March

Winter 21/22 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 3

Days Snow Lying: 1

Deepest Snowfall: 28th November (3cm)

Latest Snowfall: 31st March

Winter 20/21 in Solihull

Days Snow Falling: 21

Days Snow Lying: 8

Deepest Snowfall: 24th January (9cm)

Latest Snowfall: 12th April

Winter 19/20 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 5

Days Snow Lying: 2

Deepest Snowfall: 10th Feb (5cm)

Winter 18/19 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 6

Days Snow Lying: 6

Deepest Snowfall: 29th Jan (3cm)

Winter 17/18 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 27

Days Snow Lying: 24

Deepest Snowfall: 18th March 2018 (10cm)

richardabdn
12 June 2018 17:15:19

Sadly this is turning into another wrist-slittingly awful summer as feared. Just as in 2014, 2015 and 2016 June has descended into permacast hell following a decent start.

Anything from the North or North West is far worse than an easterly now as all it seems to result in is an endless train of cloud: the purely 21st Century phenomenon of June permacast. At least most days with the easterlies saw the cloud burn off or break up.

Five days in a row now I have woken up to dismal slate grey skies and for the past three days they have stuck around all day bar a totally pointless late clearance at 8pm yesterday and several failed attempts to break up today.

This weather is completely and utterly useless. At least farmers and gardeners would benefit from rain. This is no good to anyone. It’s just depressing and unpleasant. A complete waste of the long days as has been the case at this time of year for what seems like an eternity.

It hasn’t reached a modest 17C in over a week either, so two of the three ingredients that have made summers so unbearable over the past 11 years – gloom and lack of warmth are already present. Just need the excessive rain to complete the toxic trio


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything

2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November

2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits

2025 - The Weekend Curse hell intensifies

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
12 June 2018 17:18:48

I imagine the Peak bogs of the Pennines are dry and cracked too which will be unusual (though it happened last May too!), but I believe is rare.

Originally Posted by: RobR 

I wonderi if we are on the verge of grass/moorland fires? Not heard of any yet. That said, they normally seem to ocurr during dry spells in spring when there is a lot of dead material around from theprevious season and before so much new growth has appeared.


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

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