The Weather Outlook

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Bolty
  • Bolty
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
03 June 2018 17:08:06

Made this thread since we only have a moaning thread for the summer, and not a general discussion thread.

__________________

Anyway, only the third day of the meteorological summer and my area has already bettered the highest temperature recorded during the ghastly summer of 2012, twice (four times if you count the days in spring too). Been wonderful today!

Really hope we are just at the beginning of a wonderful summer!


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

speckledjim
04 June 2018 08:27:43
I'm currently away enjoying the sun but am hoping the good weather continues for my return
Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

marco 79
04 June 2018 11:08:31
Could this summer break the duck of the 'ending in year '8'...syndrome...anyone want to take a punt?
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Hungry Tiger
04 June 2018 13:45:07

Could this summer break the duck of the 'ending in year '8'...syndrome...anyone want to take a punt?

Originally Posted by: marco 79 

I'm just hoping that the Jet stream doesn't rev up and gives us a dire summer like 2007, 2008 and 2012.

June can be a strange summer month and even in the best of summers the first 2 or 3 weeks of June is often bad.

This year looks like being different but everyone is hoping and rightly so that we don't have a wonderful June followed by a bad July and august.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Roger Parsons
04 June 2018 13:47:35

 

I'm just hoping that the Jet stream doesn't rev up and gives us a dire summer like 2007, 2008 and 2012.

June can be a strange summer month and even in the best of summers the first 2 or 3 weeks of June is often bad.

This year looks like being different but everyone is hoping and rightly so that we don't have a wonderful June followed by a bad July and august.

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

Agreed HT. We are waiting for a date to have our roof re-slated. Nuff said. R.


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
04 June 2018 18:09:29
What I fear most is the slow, gentle deterioration that happens almost unnoticed, until before we know it we’re in yet another cold wet summer.

The charts hint at this. There’s nothing remotely hot in the forecasts now, with only one fleeeting venture above 25 next Saturday, and ever higher cloud and rain totals. Since that amazing early May bank holiday we’ve not had one properly clear day in the SE, but of course it’s been ok. Just gradually less ok as time passes.

Summer 2010 followed this pattern.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Joe Bloggs
04 June 2018 18:14:39

What I fear most is the slow, gentle deterioration that happens almost unnoticed, until before we know it we’re in yet another cold wet summer.

The charts hint at this. There’s nothing remotely hot in the forecasts now, with only one fleeeting venture above 25 next Saturday, and ever higher cloud and rain totals. Since that amazing early May bank holiday we’ve not had one properly clear day in the SE, but of course it’s been ok. Just gradually less ok as time passes.

Summer 2010 followed this pattern.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

... but then if you look at the 12z GFS op it just gets better and better and better. 

I think you’re being a bit tetchy. We’ve been so spoilt and the fact that there isn’t a major breakdown in the forecast yet is a miracle in itself. 

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
04 June 2018 19:18:03

 

... but then if you look at the 12z GFS op it just gets better and better and better. 

I think you’re being a bit tetchy. We’ve been so spoilt and the fact that there isn’t a major breakdown in the forecast yet is a miracle in itself. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Fair enough. I had just looked at the 12z GFS op. The trouble is I’m influenced by the weather over my holiday home in central France. I like to know that when I arrive in July it’ll be a parched brown wasteland, but unfortunately it’s been absolutely soaking, and the forecast has upwards of another 70mm over 2 weeks. If I shut my eyes and just look at Britain it’s decent (but no 30s - FI has maxes of 22-23C).


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Brian Gaze
04 June 2018 20:00:52

The evolving pattern looks very similar to what the Meteo France seasonal was showing for NW Europe. GloSea looked different.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Jiries
04 June 2018 22:15:07

What I fear most is the slow, gentle deterioration that happens almost unnoticed, until before we know it we’re in yet another cold wet summer.

The charts hint at this. There’s nothing remotely hot in the forecasts now, with only one fleeeting venture above 25 next Saturday, and ever higher cloud and rain totals. Since that amazing early May bank holiday we’ve not had one properly clear day in the SE, but of course it’s been ok. Just gradually less ok as time passes.

Summer 2010 followed this pattern.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

I also noticed we didn't get any 30C day yet despite perfect set-up but was blocked like last week and again this week with over cast skies, damp and cool despite uppers levels that support temps up to 30C.  April still have the hottest day of the year so far and hope not last one.

Saint Snow
05 June 2018 10:47:48

The evolving pattern looks very similar to what the Meteo France seasonal was showing for NW Europe. GloSea looked different.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

Which was...?

 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

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Solar Cycles
05 June 2018 11:43:50

The evolving pattern looks very similar to what the Meteo France seasonal was showing for NW Europe. GloSea looked different.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I think they got the overall pattern right for the past winter as well, although my memory maybe playing tricks on me again.

andy-manc
05 June 2018 13:11:09

I think this period is hugely appreciated in the north west probably more so than a lot of other places. I know it's not going to happen but I'd be happy for all of summer to carry on like this, staying settled and around the 20C mark. It's a lovely change to the usual unsettled garbage we get.  I don't need two days of 30C in hazy sunshine followed by a brisk breakdown and temperatures back to 16C. My plants have never been so thirsty.

 

Happy with settled 20ish all the way!

Brian Gaze
05 June 2018 14:45:40

Which was...?

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Cool but not very wet. Quite odd combination for a UK summer I think.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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warrenb
05 June 2018 15:00:59

 

Cool but not very wet. Quite odd combination for a UK summer I think.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

Not if northern blocking is involved.


Saint Snow
05 June 2018 16:08:56

 

Cool but not very wet. Quite odd combination for a UK summer I think.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

Cheers. Presumably their thinking is for mid-Atlantic blocking close enough to the UK to keep it mainly dry, but far enough west to keep us in the northerly flow?

To be fair, there's been blocking in the mid-Atlantic at times since late April - but luckily stretching far enough eastwards to give us a pleasant and sometimes warm flow.

 

 

 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Shropshire
05 June 2018 16:52:24

I think this period is hugely appreciated in the north west probably more so than a lot of other places. I know it's not going to happen but I'd be happy for all of summer to carry on like this, staying settled and around the 20C mark. It's a lovely change to the usual unsettled garbage we get.  I don't need two days of 30C in hazy sunshine followed by a brisk breakdown and temperatures back to 16C. My plants have never been so thirsty.

 

Happy with settled 20ish all the way!

Originally Posted by: andy-manc 

 

Yes agree with this, sadly the signs are there for it to go downhill next week and herald a prolonged unsettled spell. 


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Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
05 June 2018 18:39:00

I think this period is hugely appreciated in the north west probably more so than a lot of other places. I know it's not going to happen but I'd be happy for all of summer to carry on like this, staying settled and around the 20C mark. It's a lovely change to the usual unsettled garbage we get.  I don't need two days of 30C in hazy sunshine followed by a brisk breakdown and temperatures back to 16C. My plants have never been so thirsty.

 

Happy with settled 20ish all the way!

Originally Posted by: andy-manc 

Yes, it's been an excellent run for several weeks now for us NW folk, so often the losers in the weather stakes. Nothing spectacular temperature wise, mainly low 20s, someimes getting to the mid 20s. Highest max this year is 25.7C, but that was on May 7th, almost a month ago. As for rain, well I've managed to miss almost all of that, only May 25th brought anything really heavy.


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Brian Gaze
05 June 2018 18:53:45

 

Cheers. Presumably their thinking is for mid-Atlantic blocking close enough to the UK to keep it mainly dry, but far enough west to keep us in the northerly flow?

To be fair, there's been blocking in the mid-Atlantic at times since late April - but luckily stretching far enough eastwards to give us a pleasant and sometimes warm flow.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Yes. I think that is what the Meteo France seasonal model anomalies suggest.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Arcus
05 June 2018 18:58:10
Perhaps the extreme SSW earlier this year combined with the solar influence (or lack thereof) is leading us into the postmodern summer and winter...
Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Chunky Pea
05 June 2018 19:39:04

Today is the 14th consecutive day I have recorded temps into the 20s, phenomenal for this part of the world for this part of the year, all the more so since it is also accompanied by high dew points. Really getting sick and tired of it now. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Chunky Pea
05 June 2018 19:44:40

Perhaps the extreme SSW earlier this year combined with the solar influence (or lack thereof) is leading us into the postmodern summer and winter...

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Interesting point. I don't think the general synoptic pattern over Europe & the Atlantic really recovered after that spell in early March. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

richardabdn
05 June 2018 20:27:54

51 hours sun already this month but I'm far from convinced it will turn out any different to all the other horrors of the past decade. You just have to look at June 2016: 53 hours in the first six days followed by a protracted period of permacast that even the worst Junes never produced in the past: 23 hours in 12 days and barely a sunny day until late July.

The absolute drought has now reached 23 days and seems only a matter of time when it is brought to end. When the rain does return I can see it never letting up, writing off yet another summer.


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Chunky Pea
05 June 2018 20:34:37

The absolute drought has now reached 23 days 

Originally Posted by: richardabdn 

That's a pretty amazing stat in its own right Richard. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
05 June 2018 20:42:53

51 hours sun already this month but I'm far from convinced it will turn out any different to all the other horrors of the past decade. You just have to look at June 2016: 53 hours in the first six days followed by a protracted period of permacast that even the worst Junes never produced in the past: 23 hours in 12 days and barely a sunny day until late July.

The absolute drought has now reached 23 days and seems only a matter of time when it is brought to end. When the rain does return I can see it never letting up, writing off yet another summer.

Originally Posted by: richardabdn 

No rain for 23 days, something thst would be practically impossible here, and all you can do is moan that it is only a matter of time when it is brought to an end. Well of course it will end, why can't you just enjoy the dry weather for what it is rather than fretting over it's inevitable demise??


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

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