I am inclined to agree to a certain extent. 

However, the patterns this year are a good deal different to those we saw in 2012, 2008 and 2007 in my view.

The blocking is in a similar position, but we are currently and have been for some time, on the right side of the blocking.

What I feel is different this time compared to the years mentioned above, is that we are heading towards solar minimum, and in my view, this has had the effect of weakening the zonal flow significantly.

What we have seen since February is a recurring pattern, which has been waxing and waining, but has generally been set up to deliver us perfect synoptics (for cold in March and early April) to what we are seeing now.

I believe that we are "likely" to see a significant downturn in fortunes for a week or two in June, but that this recurring pattern will continue to do so throughout this summer.

I believe that we are on the cusp of a memorable summer this year. I don't think it will be comparable with 1976, but I believe that a repeat of 1995 could be on the cards with July and August benefiting from the recurring pattern of blocking to our north and east, but being far enough south to allow very warm to hot Easterly and South Easterly influences throughout the summer.

I do think we will see a fairly unsettled spell for a few weeks, but that summer is definitely not over this time around.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Today very warm at 27C but tomorrow and Tuesday should be near 30C or hit 30C despite the forecast show much lower at 21C tomorrow and 19C on Tuesday so that around 10C underestimate temp forecast?  Otherwise the graph or the BBC will be a massive wrong one.

Going by the forecast it would appear to be cloud cover that will keep a lid on temperatures tomorrow in London. Doesn't mater how warm it is 1.5km up when you look at the 850s, if there's low cloud then it's almost irrelevant. Any breaks in the cloud then the forecast 21c will no doubt be surpassed. 

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html and  http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html 

For a dozen years or more these were useful summaries of temp and precip 0-5 and 6-10 days ahead, and after a period in which the charts appeared intermittently, the address is no longer valid - 'domain expired'. What's happened? Not just that they haven't renewed but why? If the charts have been migrated, does anyon know where to?

Summers are generally very good down here in the far SE irrespective of what's going on elsewhere. Infact some of our sunniest summers down here occur under a blowy SW'ly airmass thanks to sea breezes keeping convective stuff well inland.

Summer is summer whether its April or September.

Grab it while you can, when you can. 

Back to the models..things are looking humid / warm / potentially showery at times and all very pleasant IMO. (apart from tomorrow and Tuesday for us east coast folk)

I know. Feels like the end of an era. I actually remember looking at them in the late 1990s, so they are at least 20 years old.

My understanding is there might come back soon anyway you can look at these for the time being.

https://www.met.hu/en/idojaras/elorejelzes/europai_elorejelzes/

Thanks for this link. I hope the others come back as they gave absolute values, not just anomalies

Spot the heavy shower on the 11th:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_174_4.png

Looks like even the 21c forecast was a bit optimistic ... around the 18c mark seems to have been the London area max.

Shows what happens if you have this pesky low cloud that won't easily budge despite the +10 uppers.

They're back!

As they're a spinoff of COLA - who wrote GRADS, as used by pretty much every weather site out there, including TWO and WZ - it was likely they'd return. Thank goodness, as they're something I've enjoyed using for the past couple of decades!

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.png

Normally the clouds burn off early in the morning to absolute max at 11am but some how today didn't clear off and only brighten up a bit but went overcast so both forecast and graph done terribly wrong again.  Not happy to see 6z increasing and prolonging the warm uppers with rain spikes like last week so that would result overcast, damp and cool condition on the ground. 

 Hi to all on here.

It looks like the Jetstream is very busy in the Norwegian Sea and North as well as NW Atlantic NE USA and Canada at times.

Negative Arctic Oscillation and Strong Polar Vortex, felt over Norway and Finland NW Russia and Norwegian Sea as well.

High Pressure over Europe and UK- bring fairly settled though cloudy and also some sunny conditions hmm.

Fairly modest in terms of temperature, low on rainfall is what they are suggesting. But Low Pressure and rain by Mid-June is looking quite a possibillity.

.

Cold weather in Arctic, Canada NW Atlantic and Greenland as well as Finland Norway and NW Russia with some wintry conditions look good for last week and this week.

We hit 23.5C today.. was warmer then  18C @ 7.30am this morning. 

The UK consists of more then just Landon 😉 Not sure what the UK hot spot was though.

Hurrah!

For those as ignorant as I am

COLA http://cola.gmu.edu/cola.html 

GRADS http://cola.gmu.edu/grads/ 

Yep, and I would expect that given the synoptics of NE flow, but the original question from Jiries was about 850s in the London area not resulting in 30c heat today. 

Anyway, as I'm sure we all know the reason for all this low cloud shield coming in from the North Sea is the usual cool early season SSTs versus the warmer air aloft and the NE flow which given an inversion will always generate the crud.

 Thanks for chasing Darren

The air looks quite a bit dryer over the next few days I can see or very hopeful that the sun will punch and burn holes in that no problem think that is reflected in wz prediction for London over the next few days should be sunny and warm even in the s/e

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&gfs_2m

Ah I see. Sorry misunderstanding on my behalf.

The present slack pressure over the UK continuing for a while, but with a dramatic difference between GFS and ECM in a week's time. GFS has that 'big green blob' sitting over us i.e. a cool Atlantic depression while ECM revives the Azores high with a warm SW flow. 

BBC forecast sitting on the fence as of last night, GFS scenario probable but with a hint of alternative models prolonging the warmth.

GFS shows a quick way of kiboshing things.

ECM looks pretty cold and blobby to me. The long slow deterioration continues. I think it’s going to be another foul summer.

Lot of LP around including Spain and Cyprus which they been getting daily rain showers.  Not good to see Spain under LP so that mean no hot weather there to transport to us.  Most of the warmth we getting now here are home grown.

Agreed because Spain where we get the over 30C heat source had been unsettled too long now and what ever warmth we got lately was home grown ones and often not clear skies with it.  Quite a lot of changes with the pressure pattern around Europe and UK.

Hmm, I could be wrong of course but I rather suspect that GFS is probably overcooking that LP somewhat. UKMO and ECM seem to have it as a rather flabbier feature.