UK Winter 2010/11 weather forecast Third successive cold winter expectedDue to the current wintry spell, there has been a lot of discussion about whether a cold November is likely to be followed by a cold winter. The statistics show there is no clear relationship, with cold Novembers being followed by mild, average and cold winters in similar numbers. If winter 2010/11 is cold in the United Kingdom, it will be the third in succession. Between 1991 and 2007 winters in the UK were mostly milder than the long term average, with the notable exception of 1995. Things changed in 2008/09 with the UK having its first cold winter for over a decade, and this was immediately followed by the winter of 2009/10 which for much of the country was worst since 1978/79, bringing widespread and heavy snowfalls. History shows that in Britain cold winters tend to come in clusters. This indicates that some of the underlying factors which cause them can persist or reoccur for a number of years. Despite this, it is unusual to have three consecutive cold winters, but a good example of it happening during the last century was during the period from 1939/40 to 1941/42. Winter 2010/11 forecast TheWeatherOutlook forecast is for winter 2010/11 to once again be colder than average, with the risk of heavy snowfall and severe frost at times during December, January and February. The pattern of the winter may be different to last year, with the cold later on in January and February tending to come more from the east or south east rather than the north east. In this scenario the heaviest snow often occurs in the boundary zone between the cold dry air from the east, and the mild and moist air trying to push in from the Atlantic. With this pattern we expect the most persistent cold in eastern England and Scotland with temperatures falling as low as -15C overnight, and at times remaining sub-zero during the day, but with the chance of heavy snow in western regions and Northern Ireland. As well as cold conditions during the first half of December, we expect notable spells of wintry weather to come during the second half of January and the first half of February. CommentaryBrian Gaze of TheWeatherOutlook said, “I expect winter 2010/11 to be colder than average again, with some very sharp spells of wintry weather bringing snow and sharp frosts to most of the country at times. The current cold spell may well ease up during the second half of December, but wintry conditions are likely to return later in January and February with the potential for more snow. The battleground between cold continental air and mild Atlantic air may well shift around close to the UK. In the UK the heaviest falls of snow often occur when mild and wet air from the Atlantic runs into dense cold and dry continental air. This can lead to the formation of heavy and slow moving bands of sleet and snow. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see some locations in the west of Britain and Northern Ireland having significant snowfalls, but the coldest weather is likely to persist for longer in eastern Britain.” Contact us for more informationIssued 1st December 2010