The Weather Outlook

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Brian Gaze
27 February 2018 08:57:23

The bottom line here, is that forecasts which are given out the media is then based on that model output and if that model output is showing things which are really good to be true, that is also going to come through on the various forecasts as well, so we cannot blame the media for that. What all of this is showing, is that the whole thing has been a hoax from the very start with that model output having been produced by various agencies who are surely being paid by certain aspects of the media (such as the Express) to produce such model output in order to assist them with producing those much over-hyped forecasts for which they are famous for.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

I will reply on the assumption you are being serious and tell you your suggestion is nonsense. The hoax you refer to would need to be perpetrated on a global scale and involve all of the western allies with Russia and China in cahoots too. The supercomputers in national forecasting centres (e.g. ECM, NCEP, DWD, Meteo France, JMA) run the computer models which produce raw datasets that contain a range of variables that forecast the weather. Most of those forecasting centres (UKM and ECM excluded) now provide full and free access to those raw datasets. Those datasets form the basis for the forecasts you see across all media channels (press, TV, web, apps, bots etc) regardless of the agency presenting the output, for example on the BBC it is now Meteogroup but previously it was the Met Office.

Online papers slice and dice information from various sources. For instance the Express often pulls charts and quotes from TWO without contacting me. As an example see: 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/922440/UK-snow-weather-forecast-map-Beast-from-the-East-when-will-snow-UK

The general etiquette is that is ok providing the charts are watermarked with the source (the one used in the example above is). On other occasions journalists will speak to me ahead of events and try to cover off several possible angles to deal with a changing outlook. For various reasons (one is that the summer months are the key ones financially so that is where the focus is) I didn't make a big push in the run up to this cold spell and as it happens I think I dodged a bullet.

Finally let me make clear I don't get paid a penny for "helping" the media. I am confident that is also true for other sources they quote.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Rob K
27 February 2018 09:03:23

 

Both good posts. It's as if Donald Trump is writing the weather news! It may turn out to be a decent spell that they are cold ramping more than us! The Anglia presenter said todays temperatures were "way below zero and will be even lower tonight" !! They have cancelled trains "in case of" disruption. What is this Country becoming? I lost count of the "more on the way" quotes, they've hi-jacked our "Beast from the East" and trotted out the local councillor with three million gritter trucks because Essex is due to be the worst hit. That is contrary to the forecast that followed that clearly showed Kent being the worst affected. Crazy times. I do hope they are right because otherwise it will be big egg on face time for them.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

I seem to remember last week lots of people were criticising the media for not making any mention or warnings of the impending cold spell. Now they are being criticised for doing the opposite. I think some people just like to complain. 

 

I am on my phone so can't be bothered to trawl back and find the quotes but I distinctly recall people asking if there was a conspiracy not to panic the public by the BBC! Now that same BBC is being accused of cold ramping? Seriously?

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

DeeDee
27 February 2018 09:21:20

I just heard on radio 2, 9am news, ‘state of emergency been declared in Kent’

be interested to hear from those TWO’ers in Kent if thats a wee bit dramatic, or justified? 

I don’t remember a state of emergency here when over 15cm fell on 10th december ? In one morning.

is it me ?

 

Harpenden, Herts.
Retron
27 February 2018 09:28:13

I just heard on radio 2, 9am news, ‘state of emergency been declared in Kent’

be interested to hear from those TWO’ers in Kent if thats a wee bit dramatic, or justified? 

I don’t remember a state of emergency here when over 15cm fell on 10th december ? In one morning.

is it me ?

Originally Posted by: DeeDee 

It was declared last night and was to do with reallocating gritters/ploughs.

Sadly, it's failed. The county is at a near standstill and there are numerous abandoned vehicles causing problems, not least on a notorious hill near me. Added to which are jacknifed lorries and a host of minor accidents.

There's around 6 inches of snow here and a similar amount in a wide area south and SW of here. If you look at Google Maps you can see the extent of the disruption.

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.3031207,0.7329379,12.25z/data=!5m1!1e1

 

 

Leysdown, north Kent
wallaw
27 February 2018 09:37:37

 

It was declared last night and was to do with reallocating gritters/ploughs.

Sadly, it's failed. The county is at a near standstill and there are numerous abandoned vehicles causing problems, not least on a notorious hill near me. Added to which are jacknifed lorries and a host of minor accidents.

There's around 6 inches of snow here and a similar amount in a wide area south and SW of here. If you look at Google Maps you can see the extent of the disruption.

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.3031207,0.7329379,12.25z/data=!5m1!1e1

 

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

It's a similar story up here too, A19 was closed for a while, A66 down to one lane, many smaller roads locally gridlocked

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@54.6005555,-1.2849518,11.74z/data=!5m1!1e1

Ian

Stockton-on-Tees

NickR
27 February 2018 09:37:51

 

It was declared last night and was to do with reallocating gritters/ploughs.

Sadly, it's failed. The county is at a near standstill and there are numerous abandoned vehicles causing problems, not least on a notorious hill near me. Added to which are jacknifed lorries and a host of minor accidents.

There's around 6 inches of snow here and a similar amount in a wide area south and SW of here. If you look at Google Maps you can see the extent of the disruption.

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.3031207,0.7329379,12.25z/data=!5m1!1e1

 

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

I know we get snow more than you guys, but that does seem pretty poor! Up here my perfect road was ruined by the bin men! 10-15cm of snow and they still come - 10 mins late, granted.

A1 was pretty slow in one direction this morning, but people are driving sensibly and roads around Durham are being used even where no ploughs have reached.

Just to add: traffic problems are a given, but standstill/state of emergency across the county?

Nick

Durham

[email protected]

Gooner
27 February 2018 09:40:30

Beeb still going for a large area of snow moving up through Thursday and Friday

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Retron
27 February 2018 09:45:52

Just to add: traffic problems are a given, but standstill/state of emergency across the county?

Originally Posted by: NickR 

What you have to bear in mind is there are 20-year olds out there who've never even seen powder snow here, let alone driven in it! Heck, I've been driving since 1998 and I've not driven in powder either. Something which used to be common enough hasn't happened for almost a generation, hence the carnage on the roads.

I'd wager the roads are a bit busier in Kent too, meaning as soon as something goes wrong it quickly snowballs.

The snow's now easing off, so hopefully as the sun comes out and warms the roads the worst will soon be over. (At this time of year black tarmac will get quite warm in the sun).

 

Leysdown, north Kent
Whether Idle
27 February 2018 09:49:13

 

What you have to bear in mind is there are 20-year olds out there who've never even seen powder snow here, let alone driven in it! Heck, I've been driving since 1998 and I've not driven in powder either. Something which used to be common enough hasn't happened for almost a generation, hence the carnage on the roads.

I'd wager the roads are a bit busier in Kent too, meaning as soon as something goes wrong it quickly snowballs.

The snow's now easing off, so hopefully as the sun comes out and warms the roads the worst will soon be over. (At this time of year black tarmac will get quite warm in the sun).

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Agree with this.  My workplace in Faversham is closed.  I would be tempted to travel to see more than the dusting here and to use my Stiga Snowracer Ski Sledge but I can see the complete chaos on the road map.   I will maybe try around 1pm after the sun has had a go.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Retron
27 February 2018 09:57:38

Agree with this.  My workplace in Faversham is closed.  I would be tempted to travel to see more than the dusting here and to use my Stiga Snowracer Ski Sledge but I can see the complete chaos on the road map.   I will maybe try around 1pm after the sun has had a go.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

You could always do what the local rag does and use the Traffic England website to look at the road cameras, to see if it's worth the trip.

Here's the M20 at Maidstone, for example:

Leysdown, north Kent
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
27 February 2018 10:35:46

To be fair, last week the signs for extreme weather were well discussed on here but the professional forecasters were more cautious about alerting too early and we criticised them for that.  Then, the forecast was always for snow to be heavy in ‘some’ areas and that’s happened exactly as forecast.

I appreciate it’s difficult for those with little or no snow to accept that other places do have disruptive snow.  But we all know that snow is the most difficult type of weather to pinpoint to exact areas. My weather apps have never concurred exactly, but the BBC app has consistently shown us with light snow here and that’s exactly what we have.  Whereas the Met O app had us in an amber area for today but then changed us to yellow yesterday.  I thought the BBC app was underperforming but only because I didn’t want to believe it and it was actually right.

Some of us are disappointed because we hoped we’d be in the firing line and we aren’t.  But some areas in the North and South of the country clearly do have disruptive snow, so the forecasts were not wrong!  And the snow is widespread, albeit not completely covering the whole country. Remember the forecasts are forecasts and not nowcasts.  We also tend to interpret them as we’d like them to be.

I think they’ve done a reasonable job on the whole.

 

 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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rickm
27 February 2018 10:58:33

To be fair, last week the signs for extreme weather were well discussed on here but the professional forecasters were more cautious about alerting too early and we criticised them for that.  Then, the forecast was always for snow to be heavy in ‘some’ areas and that’s happened exactly as forecast.

I appreciate it’s difficult for those with little or no snow to accept that other places do have disruptive snow.  But we all know that snow is the most difficult type of weather to pinpoint to exact areas. My weather apps have never concurred exactly, but the BBC app has consistently shown us with light snow here and that’s exactly what we have.  Whereas the Met O app had us in an amber area for today but then changed us to yellow yesterday.  I thought the BBC app was underperforming but only because I didn’t want to believe it and it was actually right.

Some of us are disappointed because we hoped we’d be in the firing line and we aren’t.  But some areas in the North and South of the country clearly do have disruptive snow, so the forecasts were not wrong!  And the snow is widespread, albeit not completely covering the whole country. Remember the forecasts are forecasts and not nowcasts.  We also tend to interpret them as we’d like them to be.

I think they’ve done a reasonable job on the whole.

 

 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Good point well made Caz.

tallyho_83
27 February 2018 12:08:56

Seem to have issues with both sites as i am trying to find these snow showers seeing as they are so localised firstly

raintoday?

 

Meteoradar works but seems like thw UK is bone dry!?

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Magical Moon

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Rob K
27 February 2018 12:20:53
Warnings are being updated. I am puzzled by the discussion text for the warning in the south though:

Yellow warning Wind & snow between Thu 09:00 and Thu 23:55

Regions and local authorities affected:

East Midlands East of England London & South East England South West England Wales West Midlands

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A weather system is expected to move slowly north through Thursday, initially affecting the south east of the warning area before intensifying and pushing north across the rest of the warning area later on. As it comes into contact with the very cold air resident over the UK, it has potential to produce widespread snow, accompanied by strong to gale force winds. This warning has been updated to include earlier snowfall in the southeast, and to extend the area slightly further north. The confidence level has increased, whilst the impact level has been reduced - a separate, smaller area of higher impacts is catered for with an Amber warning.

There is no amber warning for Thursday other than the one in the north - is that the one they are talking about?

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Arcus
27 February 2018 12:22:43

Warnings are being updated. I am puzzled by the discussion text for the warning in the south though:

Yellow warning Wind & snow between Thu 09:00 and Thu 23:55

Regions and local authorities affected:

East Midlands East of England London & South East England South West England Wales West Midlands

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A weather system is expected to move slowly north through Thursday, initially affecting the south east of the warning area before intensifying and pushing north across the rest of the warning area later on. As it comes into contact with the very cold air resident over the UK, it has potential to produce widespread snow, accompanied by strong to gale force winds. This warning has been updated to include earlier snowfall in the southeast, and to extend the area slightly further north. The confidence level has increased, whilst the impact level has been reduced - a separate, smaller area of higher impacts is catered for with an Amber warning.

There is no amber warning for Thursday other than the one in the north - is that the one they are talking about?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Amber is now there in SW

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

forestedge
27 February 2018 12:23:33

Warnings are being updated. I am puzzled by the discussion text for the warning in the south though:

Yellow warning Wind & snow between Thu 09:00 and Thu 23:55

Regions and local authorities affected:

East Midlands East of England London & South East England South West England Wales West Midlands

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A weather system is expected to move slowly north through Thursday, initially affecting the south east of the warning area before intensifying and pushing north across the rest of the warning area later on. As it comes into contact with the very cold air resident over the UK, it has potential to produce widespread snow, accompanied by strong to gale force winds. This warning has been updated to include earlier snowfall in the southeast, and to extend the area slightly further north. The confidence level has increased, whilst the impact level has been reduced - a separate, smaller area of higher impacts is catered for with an Amber warning.

There is no amber warning for Thursday other than the one in the north - is that the one they are talking about?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Massive amber warning just been issued Thu/Fri for large part of Southern England. Low expected to intensify 

Roger

Ashurst Bridge (New Forest)

9m ASL

https://www.newforestweather.co.uk 

John p
27 February 2018 12:41:37
The amber warning ends about 3 miles west from my house 😂
Camberley, Surrey
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
27 February 2018 12:43:39

Seem to have issues with both sites as i am trying to find these snow showers seeing as they are so localised firstly

raintoday?

 

Meteoradar works but seems like thw UK is bone dry!?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Tally, Raintoday often does that when there’s something interesting to see.  I expect it’s because they want you to pay for the upgrade!  Meteoradar is working fine for me.  Check the settings and refresh the page.  If that doesn’t work, it could be slow server response due to high traffic!  Sorry I can’t suggest anything else to help, although others have posted links to various other radars. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Retron
27 February 2018 12:47:22
Wow, the Met Office is really hammering home its message today!

I thought the warnings down here were severe enough (we did, briefly, get cut off this morning, but touch wood no power loss yet), and there were stranded vehicles aplenty. However, this for the Westcountry, Wales and parts of central southern England is the most severe warning I've seen....

Between 06:00 Wed 28th and 18:00 Thu 1st

Frequent and heavy snow showers are expected on Wednesday and Thursday leading to some significant accumulations developing. Long delays and cancellations on bus, rail and air travel could occur. Roads may become blocked by deep snow, with many stranded vehicles and passengers. Some rural communities might be cut off for several days. Long interruptions to power supplies and other services such as telephone and mobile phone networks, could occur.

Hopefully those areas will cope better than the good people of Kent did this morning!

Leysdown, north Kent
The Beast from the East
27 February 2018 12:51:28

Wow, the Met Office is really hammering home its message today!

I thought the warnings down here were severe enough (we did, briefly, get cut off this morning, but touch wood no power loss yet), and there were stranded vehicles aplenty. However, this for the Westcountry, Wales and parts of central southern England is the most severe warning I've seen....

Between 06:00 Wed 28th and 18:00 Thu 1st

Frequent and heavy snow showers are expected on Wednesday and Thursday leading to some significant accumulations developing. Long delays and cancellations on bus, rail and air travel could occur. Roads may become blocked by deep snow, with many stranded vehicles and passengers. Some rural communities might be cut off for several days. Long interruptions to power supplies and other services such as telephone and mobile phone networks, could occur.

Hopefully those areas will cope better than the good people of Kent did this morning!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

I thought tomorrow was supposed to be dry as the flow becomes more South easterly with no moisture to work with?

 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
27 February 2018 12:56:46

Wow, the Met Office is really hammering home its message today!

I thought the warnings down here were severe enough (we did, briefly, get cut off this morning, but touch wood no power loss yet), and there were stranded vehicles aplenty. However, this for the Westcountry, Wales and parts of central southern England is the most severe warning I've seen....

Between 06:00 Wed 28th and 18:00 Thu 1st

Frequent and heavy snow showers are expected on Wednesday and Thursday leading to some significant accumulations developing. Long delays and cancellations on bus, rail and air travel could occur. Roads may become blocked by deep snow, with many stranded vehicles and passengers. Some rural communities might be cut off for several days. Long interruptions to power supplies and other services such as telephone and mobile phone networks, could occur.

Hopefully those areas will cope better than the good people of Kent did this morning!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Hmmm!  And a couple of days ago I was thinking Thursday was the least severe weather of the whole week and wouldn’t disrupt my travel arrangements!  It looks fairly clear from here to Birmingham for driving at the moment but a shift North, like today’s amber warning, could ground my 4pm flight!   Just when I was thinking all would be well!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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redmoons
27 February 2018 13:01:56

Tally, Raintoday often does that when there’s something interesting to see.  I expect it’s because they want you to pay for the upgrade!  Meteoradar is working fine for me.  Check the settings and refresh the page.  If that doesn’t work, it could be slow server response due to high traffic!  Sorry I can’t suggest anything else to help, although others have posted links to various other radars. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

 

It was down for me also and I am on the paid version 

Andrew,

Watford

ASL 35m

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IWATFO32 

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
27 February 2018 13:03:14

 

I thought tomorrow was supposed to be dry as the flow becomes more South easterly with no moisture to work with?

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Well, it does keeps changing, so I think we can expect anything to happen!  We know this weather is here for this week at least and they do seem to be getting the snow forecasts more precise 24 hours in advance.  It’s a case of watch this space!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
27 February 2018 13:05:51

It was down for me also and I am on the paid version 

Originally Posted by: redmoons 

  I won’t be paying for the upgrade then!  Just what you don’t want at times like this!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Rob K
27 February 2018 13:09:21

The amber warning ends about 3 miles west from my house 😂

Originally Posted by: John p 

Snap - exactly what I was about to say 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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