Yes for all the pretty synoptics the coldest actual weather on offer in the next couple of weeks looks to be this weekend. This morning's GFS has that annoying look from 2010 where after the initial cold spell the block held too far west and the trough wafted warm air up from the south. And of course this time we don't have the sweetener of a 2010-style initial cold shot!

It would be hard to see how any milder could sustain itself with that set up, though all academic anyway at this point as next run will probably show something entirely different. 

Looks like a cool month for the South this November but can't see anything in the charts yet that smacks of a decent cold spell. Always good to get some early hope though.

Another run, and even more steps towards the atlantic waking up.

I really hope the GFS Is barking up the wrong tree.

On this run, in an unusual move, the GH is shunted to Canada , as a doninant LP takes up its usual residency off the coast of Ireland... drawing up mild SWlys

Normal winter service takes hold.

Not a good run.

And a Greenland Hightastic GFS run regardless of the chilliness in our neck of the woods.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_228_1.png 

The gfs can't help its self with blowing up the Atlantic its what it does. It's not a bad run the blocking is insane still.

A perfect example of how even a strongly negative NAO can't prevent the UK from being mired in winter dross.

It ain't winter yet...

I'll get me coat 

Maybe, but I think many people here at this time in 2015 would have given anything to have seen model runs such as those we have at the moment, in view of the unrelenting dross we had at that time which went on to dominate the entire 2015/16 winter.

Personally I dont think the low that forms around 168 on the operational is going to push through-
I am going to say its going to get blocked by a ridge thrown north out of France- only 1 ensemble suggesting this but here it is

this ridge because of the ultra meridional flow would support some sort of eastlery down the line...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=13&ech=6&carte=1&mode=0
S

I'm surprised that nobody has commented on the ECM 12z.

T+240

You know things are getting potentially interesting when Steve Murr starts posting!

All we need is Codge back and it will be like the old days

me too, quite a good cold run with the high pressure building up and across nicely. Rather chilly should it come about

martin

It is certainly worth watching the charts at the moment because, even as things stand, it looks more interesting (and less depressing) than the past few winters. That could all change and I wouldn’t be massively surprised if it did, but as things stand the outlook is not without interest even if it is not wintry nirvana.

Well said Dave, but common sense will rarely prevail once the fever sets in 😉

I think I'd say I'm cautiously optimistic; certainly not excited.

Of course the model output could change back to something zonal but we can only comment on what is being shown.  That is currently for increased evidence of northern blocking.  Don't you think it would be as wrong to suggest that there are no signals as it would be to suggest a definite cold spell?

Very wise words, Gandalf.

What is currently being shown by the models may ultimately end up in no notable cold spell materialising, but as you rightly say, we can only comment on what is being shown by the models at this moment in time. What exactly these synoptics will mean for us should they materialise as shown, and what happens further down the line, we can only speculate on just now.

Very impressive ECM this evening, got to be the best for Northern blocking so far this late Autumn, all the jigsaw pieces falling into place for northern blocking, cold air heading to the SE USA, warm air to Newfoundland, a negative NAO and a split polar vortex. A sustained negative NAO would probably follow after T240.

However northern blocking is not always a guarantee of cold as the 12Z GFS shows, but its 10 days away.... the main thing to take home from today is the increased northern blocking signal and with that there is always the chance colder air will filter down our way.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png