The Weather Outlook

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Chunky Pea
07 November 2017 22:17:24

 

Apt? 

Ridiculous even if it's your opinion because what would be apt for the term "blowtorch" is a very hot southerly flow in summer. 

A tropical SWly wouldn't melt butter. 

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

Yes, but pretty sure the warmest temps and warmest 'feels' in winter come from largely SW'ly flows. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

David M Porter
07 November 2017 22:41:14

Modern winter for me!

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Andy Woodcock
07 November 2017 22:51:58
How about....

Winter 1947 didn't start till late January so plenty of time yet!

Posters who state that are usually saying something similar in late March!

Andy

Andy Woodcock

Penrith

Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001

Solar Cycles
07 November 2017 22:55:45

How about....

Winter 1947 didn't start till late January so plenty of time yet!

Posters who state that are usually saying something similar in late March!

Andy

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 

😂😂😂. Yep that’s another little gem when the s**t hits the fan. 😁

moomin75
08 November 2017 08:13:05

“This is exactly in line with my LRF. I’m not sure why anyone is surprised”

(Hi Moomin) 😂

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Won't be getting that this year. Promise. 😂😂😂

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Jive Buddy
08 November 2017 11:37:51

You can add "Hairdryer" to the dumbed down childlike terminology like "Blowtorch"and especially "Uncle Barty".

Others: "Shortwave", "Slider Low", "Trough Disruption" - I'm pretty sure these terms were never used years ago. Are they American in origin?

"As I alluded to" - Oh get your head out of your rear lower orifice!

"In line with my LRF/Guess" - you have a LRF? You should have said!...

One of my favourite pet hates (that must be close to an oxymoron!) is "Of course, we all know that chart won't come off"...we do? I didn't know that! I bow down to the professional meteorological and scientific knowledge that went in to creating that possible outcome, so I'll say it has a chance!

I'm sure when winter starts, I'll see a few others 😃. I'm 54 and grumpy old man now :-p

It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.

Steve
08 November 2017 11:48:46

Sleet.....

ballamar
  • ballamar
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
08 November 2017 12:14:50
Winter doesn't start for ....days when it's mild or zonal
picturesareme
08 November 2017 12:19:36

You can add "Hairdryer" to the dumbed down childlike terminology like "Blowtorch"and especially "Uncle Barty".

Others: "Shortwave", "Slider Low", "Trough Disruption" - I'm pretty sure these terms were never used years ago. Are they American in origin?

"As I alluded to" - Oh get your head out of your rear lower orifice!

"In line with my LRF/Guess" - you have a LRF? You should have said!...

One of my favourite pet hates (that must be close to an oxymoron!) is "Of course, we all know that chart won't come off"...we do? I didn't know that! I bow down to the professional meteorological and scientific knowledge that went in to creating that possible outcome, so I'll say it has a chance!

I'm sure when winter starts, I'll see a few others 😃. I'm 54 and grumpy old man now :-p

Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 

😁👍👍👍👍 

marco 79
08 November 2017 12:22:16
Cold runs that would put us "In the freezer" post 240hrs
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Saint Snow
08 November 2017 12:57:55

"Warm Sector"

Especially as it's always to the west. And sometimes sits right over MBY

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Russwirral
08 November 2017 14:16:57

"Warm Sector"

Especially as it's always to the west. And sometimes sits right over MBY

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

 

If theres a warm sector, no matter how marginal a sector it is... i will also be under it with you.

 

What really gets me about that is, its obviously becuase of the irish sea, yet I never see it being picked up in a similar fashion on the Blackpool coast, or north wales coast.  Sea breezes there have no modification to wintry precip.

 

Its purely a merseyside thing... and its infuriating!

Weather station:

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 

Jive Buddy
08 November 2017 15:51:07

"Warm Sector"

Especially as it's always to the west. And sometimes sits right over MBY

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I've experienced the odd warm sector or two down south...but that's probably just my age 

It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.

some faraway beach
08 November 2017 18:55:30

Latest tweet from Matt H

Cobra run

 

 

 

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.

Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.

Whether Idle
08 November 2017 19:25:31

OPI. (bollox)

"over on the other side..."

"teleconnections" - aka general bollox

 The stygian gloom of depression that sets in if it has not snowed in someone's back yard by January 14th, calling them to say "Winter is Over".

 

 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Bertwhistle
08 November 2017 20:08:57

 

It’s actually a medical term for ‘per vagina’ but even mentioning it here is probably a sackable offence 😉

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

It's actually the agreed abbreviation for Place Value when considering childhood mathematical concept development.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Bertwhistle
08 November 2017 20:10:08

 

Apt? 

Ridiculous even if it's your opinion because what would be apt for the term "blowtorch" is a very hot southerly flow in summer. 

A tropical SWly wouldn't melt butter. 

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

Yes but a blowtorch would melt metal so 'hot southerly' is just as inadequate.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

ballamar
  • ballamar
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
08 November 2017 21:21:04
Perhaps you can quote people as we may see some little gems coming up reckon as ever more runs needed will crop up soon
Chichesterweatherfan2
08 November 2017 23:14:48
Come to me papa....what the hell is that about?
White Meadows
09 November 2017 06:44:02
I’ve said this before but the automatic assumption that Christmas Day and Boxing Day the world should ignore ALL model output because of fewer commercial airline flights on those days.
Retron
09 November 2017 07:05:35

I’ve said this before but the automatic assumption that Christmas Day and Boxing Day the world should ignore ALL model output because of fewer commercial airline flights on those days.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

And I've said it before, but the lack of observations is enough to make a difference. I went through this a couple of years ago in exquisite detail  by crunching the numbers based on ECM data acquisition figures, having noticed it anecdotally for a decade or so beforehand. Feel free to do the same this year if you feel otherwise, although you'll struggle to find the ECM data numbers these days!

(Hyperbole doesn't help your cause, either. The actual theory is that the lack of observations - largely in the higher latitudes, where such observations have more of an effect - leads the models to a more "blocky" output in the northern hemisphere in the longer term. If you're just worrying about the next few days, it has very little effect.)

 

Leysdown, north Kent
Andy Woodcock
09 November 2017 08:30:22
'Looks like 'Uncle Barty ' is coming for Christmas'

Oh hang on it was me that wrote that!.........sorry guys.

Andy

Andy Woodcock

Penrith

Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001

Chunky Pea
09 November 2017 08:55:13

Come to me papa....what the hell is that about?

Originally Posted by: Chichesterweatherfan2 

Thinking about it, that does sound a little 'creepy'. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Chunky Pea
09 November 2017 08:59:35

 

And I've said it before, but the lack of observations is enough to make a difference. I went through this a couple of years ago in exquisite detail  by crunching the numbers based on ECM data acquisition figures, having noticed it anecdotally for a decade or so beforehand. Feel free to do the same this year if you feel otherwise, although you'll struggle to find the ECM data numbers these days!

(Hyperbole doesn't help your cause, either. The actual theory is that the lack of observations - largely in the higher latitudes, where such observations have more of an effect - leads the models to a more "blocky" output in the northern hemisphere in the longer term. If you're just worrying about the next few days, it has very little effect.)

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Good points, but I don't think it makes much difference in the long term, in that most of us model watches take FI with a pinch of salt anyway. We often see more 'blocky' scenarios on the models post 192hrs even when full data is imputed at the start. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Arcus
09 November 2017 10:16:51

 

And I've said it before, but the lack of observations is enough to make a difference. I went through this a couple of years ago in exquisite detail  by crunching the numbers based on ECM data acquisition figures, having noticed it anecdotally for a decade or so beforehand. Feel free to do the same this year if you feel otherwise, although you'll struggle to find the ECM data numbers these days!

(Hyperbole doesn't help your cause, either. The actual theory is that the lack of observations - largely in the higher latitudes, where such observations have more of an effect - leads the models to a more "blocky" output in the northern hemisphere in the longer term. If you're just worrying about the next few days, it has very little effect.)

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

We had a thread running on this over the Xmas/New Year period last winter where I posted the link for obs numbers for ECMWF for data acquisition. I can't remember exactly what the conclusion was! Anyway after some digging, here is the link. Bit of a pain to sort through the Obs Types, but if anyone wants to look at it again this year feel free...

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/monitoring/dcover?time=2017110900,0,2017110900&obs=synop-ship&Flag=all

 

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

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