The Weather Outlook

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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
18 July 2017 06:17:15
2 runs later and back to the drawing board. The depression of the end of this week further south again.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Brian Gaze
18 July 2017 06:21:38

Still quite warm for the south in late June but none the GEFS00z runs bring in exceptional heat.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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PFCSCOTTY
18 July 2017 06:34:57

Still quite warm for the south in late June but none the GEFS00z runs bring in exceptional heat.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

late June Brian? ....maybe that's the way forward, forecast the weather we had last month....maybe a bit more reliable? 👍👍😀

Ally Pally Snowman
18 July 2017 06:35:46

The reality of a UK low is now unavoidable but hopefully it wont hang around too long.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.html

 

Ecm has it drifting away east after 2 days.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
18 July 2017 06:45:44

Ecm has Azores high ridging in nicely this morning . Hopefully a new signal being picked up.

Prob best we can hope for.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
soperman
18 July 2017 07:54:01

Is this the summer equivalent to the winter rollercoaster. 40c to 17c in one run

There seems to be some consensus among the models now for increased Atlantic mobility towards the end of the month but this far out I am struggling to believe any of the models. ECM re-establishes the high quickly but GFS wants to sink the high and bring in a full blown trough with incursions from the North.

 

Happily living by the sea in Brixham......but sad to leave the snowy Chiltern Hills after 35 years!
Brian Gaze
18 July 2017 10:51:08

GFSP becomes the GFS op from tomorrow's 12z cycle. The datasets are pretty similar to the existing ones so I wouldn't expect many probs with charts/forecasts on TWO or other web sites and apps. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Hungry Tiger
18 July 2017 14:24:08

Ecm has Azores high ridging in nicely this morning . Hopefully a new signal being picked up.

Prob best we can hope for.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

These don't look too bad at all really.

 

Gavin S. FRmetS.

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South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Rob K
18 July 2017 14:57:27
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

One has the 24C isotherm crossing the Kent coast! 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
18 July 2017 17:54:59
I reckon at least 60% of model runs since mid June have contained at least one near record breaking scorcher. My grasp of probability stats is woeful, but I think that implies we would be more unlucky than lucky to go the whole summer without one of these coming to fruition.

Maybe the mid June heatwave was that one near-record scorcher.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
18 July 2017 17:57:53
Just to add, the last time I remember 20C isotherms appearing regularly in GFS ensembles but never transpiring was 2004. An odd summer, up and down and quite hot in parts (bit with a long cold spell from mid June to mid July), but very wet in August.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
cultman1
19 July 2017 06:31:05
How is next week shaping up? there has been talk of potential high temperatures returning later next week especially for the south due to the extreme heat nearby on the continent or are the models now showing a more permanent pattern change countrywide to cooler and changeable conditions as we leave July and go into August?. I have the UK ComicCon in London the weekend of 29-30 July and hot weather will deter visitors from attending under Olympia's glass roof!
Ally Pally Snowman
19 July 2017 06:48:00

How is next week shaping up? there has been talk of potential high temperatures returning later next week especially for the south due to the extreme heat nearby on the continent or are the models now showing a more permanent pattern change countrywide to cooler and changeable conditions as we leave July and go into August?. I have the UK ComicCon in London the weekend of 29-30 July and hot weather will deter visitors from attending under Olympia's glass roof!

Originally Posted by: cultman1 

 

Gfs is pretty good this morning especially for the south and does have some heat returning 25th - 27th mid to high 20s for the SE.

Ecm however is a horror show and much more unsettled and cooler.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
speckledjim
19 July 2017 06:52:25

 

 

Gfs is pretty good this morning especially for the south and does have some heat returning 25th - 27th mid to high 20s for the SE.

Ecm however is a horror show and much more unsettled and cooler.

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Last night the Beeb were indicating that next week was going to be a week of cool weather and showers, a la ECM

Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

Ally Pally Snowman
19 July 2017 06:53:38

 

Last night the Beeb were indicating that next week was going to be a week of cool weather and showers, a la ECM

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

 

Yes sods law ecm will be correct.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2017 07:07:24
GEM isn't great either. UKMO a mixed bag. GFS a bit of a good outlier.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
sunnyramsgate
19 July 2017 07:20:20
So it will be hot in the south again lol
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2017 13:47:42
Models still in a holding pattern. GFS 06z gives us more of the same: depression, then moderate ridging in the South, turning cooler and NW, but generally weak zonal. Next 2 weeks look a bit too samey to be believable. I just hope any major change is a positive one.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2017 16:19:59
Newfangled GFS dripping out, and I think I've spotted a change in its resolution in the 0.25 scale, with a London heat island seeming to show up every night. Either this is coincidence, or the new model is resolving cities and land use differently from the old one. I know the regional models like Arpege and Arome do this.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
19 July 2017 16:35:43

 

Last night the Beeb were indicating that next week was going to be a week of cool weather and showers, a la ECM

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

Yes I saw that forecast - cool and showery, with the jet stream right over the UK, was the theme.

Further proof that models are utterly useless more than a week out, as there was considered to be high confidence for a long warm and settled spell, at least in the south.

There is now rain in the forecast on 5 out of the next 7 days even down here!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Brian Gaze
19 July 2017 17:39:42

Newfangled GFS dripping out, and I think I've spotted a change in its resolution in the 0.25 scale, with a London heat island seeming to show up every night. Either this is coincidence, or the new model is resolving cities and land use differently from the old one. I know the regional models like Arpege and Arome do this.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

This I think. The horizontal resolution hasn't been change IIRC.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Rob K
19 July 2017 18:44:28
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Overall though it looks very average and not too dry.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
20 July 2017 06:54:54

 

This I think. The horizontal resolution hasn't been change IIRC.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Not so sure: look at the night temperatures in the Ile de France, the effect is even more marked. I don't remember this showing up at all in the old model.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
David M Porter
20 July 2017 09:14:17

Does anyone know whether or not it's still possible to view the entire GFS op runs on WZ? I've noticed that since the 12z appeared yesterday, it has updated up to about T+240 but not any further.

Lenzie, Glasgow

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Saint Snow
20 July 2017 11:32:04

 

Yes I saw that forecast - cool and showery, with the jet stream right over the UK, was the theme.

Further proof that models are utterly useless more than a week out, as there was considered to be high confidence for a long warm and settled spell, at least in the south.

There is now rain in the forecast on 5 out of the next 7 days even down here!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

 

The kids school holidays are starting, what else did you expect?

 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

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