Met Office Hadley            5.2c.          Anomaly           1.6c.  Provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                         4.69c.        Anomaly            0.54c.

Netweather                      5.24c.        Anomaly            1.05c.

Peasedown St John       5.4c.        Anomaly             -0.7c.     

Met Office Hadley                  5.0c.           Anomaly          1.5c.  Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                               4.52c.         Anomaly           0.37c.

Netweather                            5.04c.         Anomaly           0.85c.

Peasedown St John            5.2c.             Anomaly           -0.9c.

Met Office Hadley

4.9 to the 14th

1.4 above the 61 to 90 average

0.5 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month is 5.3c on the 11th

Met Office Hadley           4.9c.          Anomaly        1.4c. Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                        4.48c.        Anomaly        0.33c.

Netweather                     4.9c.          Anomaly         0.71c.

Peasedown St John      5.1c.            Anomaly         -1.0c.

Shocked to check up on the CET and find it that high; the recent cold spell was less marked down here  yet I'm only at 4.3*C.

This coming week that disparity will only grow further as the SE and CS England shiver in a cold spell while further N and W temperatures are near average overall, though if skies are clear it could be a bit below, and if they are cloudy it could be a bit above. 

What with the signs of milder weather next week I have a nasty suspicion that whereas my region and the SE will finish within a degree of my CET estimate (a good result when considering standard deviations), the CET region may be quite a bit further out. 

The broad scale pattern has actually been more or less what I expected, with a northerly followed by an easterly... except that the easterly looks to be restricted to the far south. We'll be within about 100 miles of a much colder week for the CET region. The weather can be a cheeky bugger sometimes .

5.0 to the 15th

1.5 above the 61 to 90 average

0.6 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month is 5.3c on the 11th

Met Office Hadley              5.0c.           Anomaly            1.5c. Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                           4.64c.          Anomaly            0.49c.

Netweather                        5.02c.          Anomaly            0.83c.

Peasedown St John           5.2c.            Anomaly          -0.9c.

I had to open my stupid trap 

Wish I'd have got round to setting up my new Chrimbo weather station by now, because I reckon the temp IMBY has remained constant at 9c for about 36-48 hours and I'd have like to see that on a graph

Here's another PWS in St. Helens (not sure if you're nearest this one, or one of the other two uploading to WUnderground) but this shows what you describe quite nicely; for the last 24 hours at least. Early hours of yesterday morning look more like 5-6C.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=ISAINTHE51#history/s20170109/e20170116/mweek

Cheers, Darren. I grew up about a mile or so due north of that one. These days, I live about 3-4 miles SE of it.

5.2 to the 16th

1.7 above the 61 to 90 average

0.8 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month is 5.3c on the 11th

Met Office  Hadley        5.2c.      Anomaly        1.7c.  Provisional to 16th.     Needs to go up to 5.56c.....

Metcheck                       4.6c.       Anomaly     0.47c.

Netweather                    5.11c.     Anomaly     0.92c.

Cheadle Hulme  Weather  5.4c.      Anomaly    0,7c.

Clevedon Weather           6.5c.      Anomaly     -0.9c.

Mount Sorrel                   4.7c.      Anomaly     0.5c.

Peasedown St John          5.4c.      Anomaly    -0.7c.

Our running January average here on the North Downs in East Kent stands at 2.45 ºC up to and including the 17th.

In contrast to 4.91c here Justin. 

Met Office Hadley            5.2c.           Anomaly       1.7c.  Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                         4.54c.         Anomaly       0.39c.

Netweather                      5.05c.         Anomaly       0.86c.

Peasedown St John     5.4c.          Anomaly   0.86c.  

Aye, well Kent isn't in balmy central England - where we see more flying unicorns than we do cold days .....

As usual in cold weather the provisional CET is way way too high. So expect a large downward adjustment at the end of the month.

Up to and including today I calculate the CET to be at 4.5C.

It is very true that the coldest CET station is in the south east and the warmest in the north west this month.

Stonyhurst has a mean of 5.1C including a minimum of 3.2C which is way above the other two stations.

Pershore has a mean of 4.5C and Rothamsted has a mean of 4.0C. This is still quite a bit above what we have seen further south-east.

As to where we finish up this month well I currently estimate a final figure for the CET of 4.98C. This assumes a significant warm up in the final 5 days of the month which is by no means certain at this point. As at the 26th I currently estimate the CET will be back at the 4.5C it is currently at. So somewhere between 4.5C and 5C is likely to be where we finish.

Yes was thinking its higher than the daily max/min temps implied. It's been a very uncertain month to estimate as to where HP would come to sit in relation to the Uk. 

As you say GW, you estimate 4.98, I feel it could be quite a bit lower.  But I'm in awe of your track record with these third week predictions so I will keep schtum.

To be clear it is not a personal prediction just an estimate of the likely outcome based on what the models are currently showing. If the models change significantly then so will the predicted outcome.

5.2 to the 18th

1.7 above the 61 to 90 average

0.8 above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________________

Current high this month is 5.3c on the 11th

Met Office Hadley  5.2c. anomaly 1.7c Same for the last 3 days.

Metcheck               4.5c.         Anomaly        0.37c.

Netweather            4.96c.       Anomaly        0.77c.

Peasedown St John        5.3c.     Anomaly     -0.8c.