The Weather Outlook

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David M Porter
29 December 2016 10:18:43

Pretty decent output generally this morning IMO, and certainly an improvement on what we have seen for much of this month, prior to the back end of last week anyway.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

doctormog
29 December 2016 10:23:41

Yet again in the medium term the GFS run is showing inter-run inconsistency

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1621.gif

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

squish
29 December 2016 10:26:21
looking nicely poised at +174

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.gif 

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Whether Idle
29 December 2016 10:29:47

looking nicely poised at +174

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.gif

Originally Posted by: squish 

Not convinced the jet profile is of that much help for a sustained cold spell?

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Whether Idle
29 December 2016 10:34:40

Energy out west, south of Greenland needs to go UNDER the block here...I don't expect it to...

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Maunder Minimum
29 December 2016 10:35:44

Pretty decent output generally this morning IMO, and certainly an improvement on what we have seen for much of this month, prior to the back end of last week anyway.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

I have a feeling we had the chance of a truly memorable winter this season - most things have lined up in our favour - the fly in the ointment is the persistent westerly QBO - if our winter ends up being a disappointment, that will have been the reason.

By now the QBO should be well into its easterly phase and then we would be talking! But for the first time since the QBO has been monitored, the pattern has been broken and not in a way that favours UK winter weather.

New world order coming.
Whether Idle
29 December 2016 10:39:00

On the cusp of achieving something decent here on this FI jet chart:

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
squish
29 December 2016 10:39:22
I don't think the 06z, or the output this morning is anything to be too negative about. We may not get the holy grail, but there is more potential in the charts than for a very, very long time....

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2221.gif 

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Joe Bloggs
29 December 2016 10:39:45

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2221.gif

Direct southerly WAA up to Greenland will only lead to one thing ;-) 

COLD! 

Phil G
29 December 2016 10:42:00
Winter tightening its grip. Suggested to be snowy next weekend. Potential before as well. A lot going on!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2282.gif 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn22817.gif 

Whether Idle
29 December 2016 10:42:58

As good a chart as we have seen at this range in a while.  Still Fantasy, but a good run this one.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Joe Bloggs
29 December 2016 10:43:23
Not much point looking into FI but 06z GFS really is a bitterly cold run.
White Meadows
29 December 2016 10:44:19
06z churning out a beauty in FI
doctormog
29 December 2016 10:44:48
An entertaining run but it is the 06z run and I suspect one of the colder options in the ensembles. At least it's not a downgrade and I hope none starts shouting downgrade when the 12z is inevitably less extreme.
Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Phil G
29 December 2016 10:44:54
Snowedin3
29 December 2016 10:46:13

An absolute corker of a 06z run. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0

Dean Barnes

Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire

160m ASL 525 Ft

Whether Idle
29 December 2016 10:47:46

Getting very tasty now @252, 264 One for the scrapbook....Shame its 11 days away

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Notty
29 December 2016 10:48:28

Check out the Mid-Atlantic dartboard LP spinning up in GFS 06z FI - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=264&mode=0

 

Notty

Pontypool, 132m asl

Phil G
29 December 2016 10:48:49
Whether Idle
29 December 2016 10:49:47

Truly going into the daytime freezer
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2762.gif

Originally Posted by: Phil G 

Snowmageddon

If only

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
29 December 2016 10:50:34
I think we may be better off discarding this run until we see the ensembles and 12z output!
Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Joe Bloggs
29 December 2016 10:52:25
Whether Idle
29 December 2016 10:52:33

I think we may be better off discarding this run until we see the ensembles and 12z output!

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Yes Doc, its a bit of fun.  Anyone taking this fantasy seriously is probably best off spending some time in a padded cell.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Notty
29 December 2016 10:52:55

The GFS 06z just keeps on giving. Reminds me of one of the Perts that someone posted a few days ago that showed a sort of West to East LP pincer movement.

I might just dig out the snow shovel to be on the safe side :)

Notty

Pontypool, 132m asl

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