Model Output Discussion 22/12/16 09:35 Onwards>>>· Page 31

The Weather Outlook

Rob K
Advanced Member

28 December 2016 20:42:49

Well today's long ranger sounds like it goes for a UK high with milder attacks into the NW (i.e. Probably from west/southwest) rather than any cold direction. Hopefully they will change with the models in the same way the colder Met updates did!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Maunder Minimum
Advanced Member

28 December 2016 20:49:32

#752

part of a matt hugo tweet........... from what I've seen last month wQBO set to dominate throughout until late winter [ no idea what he means, but don't sound good to me,

Originally Posted by: sizzle

The Quasi Biennial Oscillation:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/quasi-biennial-oscillation

Unfortunately, it is stuck in its westerly phase which causes problems for UK winters - leads to increased likelihood of Positive NAO.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2016/quasi-biennial-oscillation-disruption

So it could be destroying what might have otherwise been a memorable winter for these islands.

Edited by user 28 December 2016 20:51:23 | Reason: Not specified

New world order coming.

NickR
Advanced Member

28 December 2016 20:50:31

#753

The Ens for Liverpool suggests a decent chance of back-edge snow IMBY during the first cold pulse as we go into 2nd Jan. 13 members in the 'snow row' isn't to be sniffed at!

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow

Remind me how to get these for any location!

Nick

Durham

[email protected]

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

28 December 2016 20:50:43

#754

TBH after reading the latest UKMO Contingency Planners Guidance I got this horrible feeling and that the uncertainty of this cold spell is going to go TITS UP..........

the latest BBC weather only just said turning chillier and more settled as we head into the new year...................

Originally Posted by: sizzle

Take a look at the latest forecast frost and snow the likely outcome end of next week. Models struggling though .

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/38454608

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

Quantum
Advanced Member

28 December 2016 20:53:18

#755

Best of the bunch

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

marting
Advanced Member

28 December 2016 20:58:31

#756

ECM ensembles very good for cold tonight, past day 10 they dip away nicely with a struggle to get above freezing.

Martin

Greasby, Wirral.

Quantum
Advanced Member

28 December 2016 21:10:25

#757

ECM seems very conflicted about whether to rise heights over Greenland. This really could go either way.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Deep Powder
Advanced Member

28 December 2016 21:25:18

#758

Remind me how to get these for any location!

Originally Posted by: NickR

Try this Nick R.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php

Click on the map for your location and it should produce the ensemble plot....

Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)

Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!

pdiddy
Advanced Member

28 December 2016 21:27:20

#759

Remind me how to get these for any location!

Originally Posted by: NickR

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=18&lat=55.95854251&lon=-3.220&runpara=0

use this link and key coordinates in to the url... this allows every location to be viewed rather than just major cities.

NickR
Advanced Member

28 December 2016 21:32:05

#760

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=18&lat=55.95854251&lon=-3.220&runpara=0

use this link and key coordinates in to the url... this allows every location to be viewed rather than just major cities.

Originally Posted by: pdiddy

Thanks! Shows how long it's been since I had the need to check the snowruns!

Nick

Durham

[email protected]

NickR
Advanced Member

28 December 2016 21:37:54

#761

Try this Nick R.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php

Click on the map for your location and it should produce the ensemble plot....

Originally Posted by: Deep Powder

And thank you too!

Nick

Durham

[email protected]

White Meadows
Advanced Member

28 December 2016 21:45:31

#762

Met Office showing their true colours tonight with confirmed westerly QBO for the foreseeable winter phase.

I expect (with a heavy heart) a sizeable downgrade tomorrow 😩😤🤧😭

Gusty
Advanced Member

28 December 2016 22:38:01

#763

I'm not one to normally post charts at 200 hours but the signal for this second northerly is very strong at present !

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

doctormog
Advanced Member

28 December 2016 22:39:04

#764

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.gif (510dam here on that chart! I'll believe that when it happens)

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS)

Quantum
Advanced Member

28 December 2016 22:52:15

#765

Nice to see that 510 line!

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Chunky Pea
Advanced Member

28 December 2016 22:52:59

#766

EC15 a little less threatening tonight post day 10 with more in the way of Euro anticyclonicness than this morning's run. Too much wobble from run to run lately to be able to spot any worthy trend though.

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member

28 December 2016 23:19:50

#767

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea

The London ECM ensemble post day-10 has the strongest clustering for a very cold spell that I've seen this winter. The Op takes that route on day 10, having tended towards one of the milder outcomes in recent runs.

Still some milder perturbations as is almost inevitable but they're scattered and in the minority.

Edited by user 28 December 2016 23:22:02 | Reason: Not specified

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E

Downdrafted
Newbie

28 December 2016 23:29:35

#768

Best charts in two years. Can't wait for the upgrades

Karl Guille
Advanced Member

28 December 2016 23:34:25

#769

I suspect that the 18z Ensembles may not be quite so good for the south tonight but it's just another variation of a potentially cold theme over the coming few weeks. Much milder IMBY in the shorts!

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=226&ext=1&y=249&run=18&runpara=0

St. Sampson

Guernsey

doctor snow
Advanced Member

28 December 2016 23:39:18

#770

The west Qbo seems to be very slack one we have not had hardly any westly winds in the south east last 3 months

Downdrafted
Newbie

28 December 2016 23:45:54

#771

I'm looking at the best charts since I took my daughter down the garden in a foot of snow 7 years ago. Very good. Let's see where mother nature takes from here. It won't be exactly like anything on show from from these logical algorithms.

Karl Guille
Advanced Member

28 December 2016 23:48:12

#772

It is only a matter of time before we see a decent Scandi High as there have been several failed recent attempts in the ensembles. Here the 18z Control gives it a good go!
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-300.png?18

Meanwhile, FI looks to be cooking up plenty of winter fayre!

Edited by user 28 December 2016 23:51:24 | Reason: Not specified

St. Sampson

Guernsey