ECM 240hrs..I wonder if the jet will dive SE'wards towards the Med ?

It's not the worst run in the world but I'm looking for snow and I didn't see to much on that run. Although as usual th day 10 chart is a stunner.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

Agreed. Although all a bit 'flabby' it ends with a negative tilt that always increases the chance of a better Atlantic HLB.

Overall a fairly good set of 12z's tonight. 

Dry and Cold sums things up after the brief northerly. Plenty of opportunity for future bites of the cherry and less chance of an atlantic return than was possibly feared earlier.

Given the angle of attack I would say yes. The high would be sucked towards Greenland as slider lows dived s/e underneath. All hypothetical of course.

It is hypothetical but that is the direction of ridging as you progress from 216 to 240hrs.

(My point to Ian is that is a computer model and you could say if X was Y then Y would lead to Z - but it isn't. You could say it Bout any scenario and it would be pointless,. The charts are what they are.)

I think the ECM may be off kilter as early as 120, so its all academic.   More runs needed to see the evolution of the first cold snap.  I await the early runs tomorrow with interest, as I do the ECM ensembles this evening as I'm willing to wager that the Op is in a "milder" cluster from 120-168.

I agree. It is nice to see some eye candy further ahead into January but we have a short and sharp northerly to get past first and no doubt its exit will shape how we go forward. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=6

GFS today

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=384

GFS in two weeks time.

Right back where it started from.much faffing  around with a failed scandi HP en route.

Not very convinced by the northerlies  shown on ECM and GFS .Generally the HP not far enough north and west and   LP is too far east to provide a decent snow risk.

 Need much stronger northerly out breaks to bring in any lasting cold  and snow.Met office long  range forecast offers little sign gf cold.

However with HP dominant there  is always a chance  of pattern chamnge though hopefully this change  will not be full of bore Atlantic HP,s or euro slugs.

Will  see if GEFS offers any sustainable excitement.

A high gradually establishes itself over Spain meaning an inevitable return to a straight westerly mobile pattern.

Follow the progression and you'll see that is not what happens and it ends up on a rather chilly note 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif 

The 12z, UKMO, GFS and ECMWF, have been reducing the duration of proper Cold Arctic plunge We now look at Sunday Midday to evening and ending upto time of 4 hours past Midnight on Monday, during which there is a chance of some rain sleet and snow showers- higher ground in particular.

The North Atlantic and Greenland High's connect plus also join with Arctic High. The coldest plunge looks to be over Shetland and North Sea and NE half of Europe, UK Monday NW Europe cold with frost early and late, but by Tuesday Iceland to UK crossing North Sea Low with mild weather coming back for us in UK.

5th or 6th  Thursday we see another system push south across the UK that by Friday as ECMWF shows and GFS does not!!😆, further cold Arctic Northerly.  Another Greenland and North Atlantic High 2nd time in 1st week Jan. 2017 is a potential and possible prediction, but that means waiting till we get to 3rd January to find out if UKMO, ECMWF and GFS are on board by then or not.

The door is closing, opening and repeating- at least it is not AGW, Azores High or Modern Winter.  It was down to 4 deg. Celsius at 17:30 outside my area today- at least this week brings frosty nights and average or slightly below average day maxima and night minima.  Behold and cherish what we have.😀🌞.

I am posting pert below at the end of FI to keep my spirits up.THE GEFS 12h is very,very disapointing. At 144h the majotrty of ENS are poorly positioned Atlantic Bore HP,s with perhaps half a dozen colder looking perts.

By 192h there  are around 6 zonal,4 cold and 10 UK or Euro HP,s

At 384h  roughly6 zonal,6 atlantic/uk HP,6 Scandi and 2 Greenland HP,s

So overall back in GEFS jam tomorrow land.

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81 3m

Caution required but bulk of the 12Z EC ENS re-load the pattern with a decent Greenland block from approx 5th onwards. Consistency required

The older I get, the harder I find it is to get sustainable excitement. But as you say there are a few members who do come close to the end though

Yes, it is nice to have a member come close to the end, particularly after a period of sustained excitement, and finally producing a drop of the white stuff....

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png