Monday looks a cold day

"The licensing agreement with UKMO, negotiated a few years ago, is for sharing selected items that help offer technical context to forecasts, but social media growth means a risk of items disseminated without permission or proper context and thus possibly not in spirit of original forecast thinking. For now, I'm afraid that means no further sharing of that material aside from more limited ones through twitter, given sensitivities. Back to model discussion."

Wouldn't the ECM just use upper air forecast data over Greenland as starting points on the Christmas Day runs, as surely, they must be reasonably sound since they were initiated from flight data the day before?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016122706/gfs-0-240.png?6

Might a scandi high out of this one, but this issue remains too much energy going over

GFS parallel for me this morning please!

Still looks like a northwesterly flow to me?

well into FI don't worry too much old chap ....plenty of room for movement

Again i'm still pleased with the output anything 5-6 days out is as far as you can go. It is getting colder, for sure. The HP could well sit over us or could locate very much in our favour, IF's update this morning ( sadly removed ) is as good as we could ever hope for.

Something akin to the 'Holy Grail' of winter charts on the last frame of the GFS this morning:

Beautiful.

I've not looked in any great detail but I'd not be surprised to see a fair amount of snow potential in the 06z GFS. Cold upper air throughout most of the run. 

Sorry for the off topic post mods.

Ian F   the cold front will eventually drop down south, but timing confidence for that is currently low.

26/12 06z - 86,004

26/12 12z - 123,842

26/12 18z - 201,382

27/12 00z - 183,008

06z ens all over the place, everything on the menu.

Why was the IF quote removed? Do we have copyright issues?

Shame to hear about poor Ian, sounds like a case of a slapped wrist. Remember This forum had gone well for years without Ian's input.

06z GEFS ensembles fully supportive of northerly at 144 hours.

By 180 hours 15 of the 20 hours have dropped the high pressure to the SW of the UK with the deep cold northerly removed in favour of a less cold NW'ly

By 240 hours the vast majority have a westerly type both cyclonic or anticyclonic in nature with few cold and wintry options by that stage.

All FI though of course.

Lets enjoy what the 1/2nd January may offer would be advice for now. 

It won't be mild whatever the case if it proves a snowy affair or not

At a glance GEFS06z look to have trended milder and more changeable. 12z runs will be critical today as the data issues are flushed out.

IMO the wrong Ian has been gagged!

For clairty Ian F has definitely not been gagged (but there were some copyright issues and that has all been sorted). The other Ian should hopefully be aware that any windup style posts and trolling by him or others will not be tolerated. 

It does look likely, looking at all evidence, that a couple of cold plunges from the northern quarter are probable. The former looks quite potent, albeit brief. In between it looks rather anticyclonic again but overall quite seasonal and pleasant.

See below

The licensing agreement with UKMO, negotiated a few years ago, is for sharing selected items that help offer technical context to forecasts, but social media growth means a risk of items disseminated without permission or proper context and thus possibly not in spirit of original forecast thinking. For now, I'm afraid that means no further sharing of that material aside from more limited ones through twitter, given sensitivities. Back to model discussion.