Tell me about it. -2c at 6pm IMBY is highly unusual.  Third bar on the fire territory!

I don't class 48+ hours of drizzle as 'charmed'

That's a poor forecast by Accuweather, even at this stage. Last winter's forecast was very poor as well. I assume they use the same techniques as they use to produce their North American forecasts?

February will be unsettled at times & colder & milder interludes are air masses alternate with each low pressure. Still a moderate chance of a very cold easterly wind developing with some snow mid-month.

Well, one month in and two to go.

I'm extremely satisfied with the forecast thus far, its probably the most accurate one I've seen on the net!

Two months to go but as you will see the coldest weather is set for the heart of the astronomical winter, coming in 2 bursts.  A similar episode to the current cold spell 2nd week of February, followed by the big one from around February 23rd give or take a couple of days.

With full support of the CFS

WI

Let's see what unfolds...maybe the last cold phase of winter, if latest longer-range models are to be trusted (!)

Ian F

Cold conditions this weekend give way to less cold/ultimately milder weather through next week; a 60% chance more mobile set-up likely for a while by end next week, but more blocked conditions then slightly favoured to see-out the rest of Feb more blocked conditions then slightly favored to see out the rest of Feb with temperatures overall perhaps slightly below avg & generally quieter/drier conditions, suggest UKMO. By late Feb a strong signal for stratospheric warming, but no sign in GloSea that it will influence troposphere & thus of little value to provide predictions on any (if any) effect on UK weather. Early March looking milder/wetter, but tentative signal

And the more I look at it, the worse it gets!

I see the MWI is on 30, which (if I'm thinking right) is really poor. I can believe it. There's been a minimal number of air frosts and no settling snow (with hardly any actually falling snow)

Whereabouts does it rank in the series?

Its 34 now.

Since 1973

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

1973-74: 30

2016-17: 34

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

I'm gobsmacked it's not amongst the bottom few - it certainly feels as poor as any other winter in my 44 years.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/uk-winter-forecast-damaging-windstorms-to-lash-hard-hit-areas-northern-england/60531022

If you read the UK part of that forecast

"AccuWeather forecasters are calling for 15-18 named storms between October 2016 and April 2017; however, the most active period will occur from December to February."

What are we up to now? Still C, Doris was named by the media and even if you take into account a couple of lows that probably should have been named, I can't see how we are going to get up to O to S, in the storm naming system. In any case, they emphasised the winter period as being the most active and we are half way through February more or less.

Surely a Spring 2017 Prospects & Predictions Thread will be open soon, could well be a mild start if the end of Feb & the Predicted Feb CET is to go by with previous high Feb CETs and leading into Spring

..Bring it on I say 

My pressure readings for each day at 18:00 for the winter so far. If there's one word you can use to describe it, it's "anticyclonic."

Manchester Winter Index

Since 1973

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

2016-17: 41

December 6.0

January 4.0

February 6.1

That gives the average winter temperature at 5.36

Yet another Winter without any snowcover here!

From 1993 to 2013, every Winter had at least some snowcover here, but remarkably, 3 out of the last 4 Winters have seen no snowcover during the Winter months here, these being the Winters of 2014, 2016 and 2017.   However, I have to admit that we were very spoilt from 2010 to 2013, as our total accumulated snow from those four Winters amounted to 53 inches !

Where's here?

Location: Gainsborough, Lincolnshire

Shockingly bad even compared to the last few. It would score 0/10 for being boring beyond belief and an ordeal to have to endure.

Not a single cold spell with every single week having above average temperatures and once again there were only pathetic transitory snowfalls.

The third winter in 11 years (along with 2006/07 and 2013/14) to fail to produce even an inch of snow when this happened only once in 30 years before (1982/83).

Just 12 air frosts which is barely a third of average and on a par with the worst ever for this location back in 1988/89. Even in the relentless low pressure dominated write-off of 2013/14, there were 17 air frosts.

Precipitation was below average but only due to the lack of snow. Rainfall was above average due to another horrific period of cyclonic easterlies that set in at the end of January resulting in a very wet February (116.8mm from 28th Jan to 28th Feb). Day temperatures often around 5-8C and weekend weather was absolutely disgusting with rain or gloom almost every weekend and significantly less sunshine than during the weekdays.

At least the second half of 2015/16 managed a normal amount of frosts and I did get to see a decent snowfall at Braemar on 13th February which is the only decent snow I’ve seen in four years. 2014/15 was very dry and exceptionally sunny with normal amounts of frost so only 2013/14 could match this awful winter just gone for being a season of unrelenting negative experience though, as mentioned, even that managed more frost and had two colder than average weeks.

Absolutely lamentable the depth to which our weather has sunk in this decade and it just continues to get worse and worse. 4 years without reaching -5C or having more than 6cm of snow is unprecedented as is the current run of 9 out of 10 wetter than average summers.