What was Dec 2009 like there? Here we had 20cm quickly followed by another 16cm snow.

I don't think we had any snow here worthy of mention in December 2009. According to my photo records the only snow that winter was 10th January 2010 and looks to be about 5-10cm

I have a vague recollection (maybe faulty) of snow forecasts for London in December 2009 but as often happens it was moving in from the west and just fizzled before it got here. One of those peak viewing months on TWO full of frantic excitement and expectation swiftly followed by severe criticism of Met Office forecasts

Quite amazing that 25 miles up the road there was a 35cm covering. 

Jamstec has updated for November, and its not good reading

saying that, It does look a bit odd that the fact the majority of Russia is already well well below normal and has been for some time, are they predicting a massive reversal?  If so, where will that cold go to?  Almost all of the Northern Hm is predicted to have a warmer than normal Winter.  

If it had said the pole and the US, then maybe i would have believed it, but i just cant follow this chart based on current annomalies.  Would take a enormous temperature correction to change this.

How reliable or otherwise is this Jamstec model? It's not one that I've been familiar with I have to say.

I know its one that the Metoffice reviews as part of their forecasting.  So cant be that naff.

How can the Eurasian continent be above average except Mongolia?!

I'm not sure David but it does show a colder than average winter for Scotland and Ireland. 

Southern Algeria looks a bit chilly too. 

I think the key to that one is in the top right ("9-member"). Anomalies based on an ensemble comprising just 9 runs for a whole season is simply random noise. I mean, look at how the GFS ensemble usually diverges into spaghetti after just a few days even with 20 members in its ensemble.

Edit: Even the Japanese website itself admits the JAMSTEC seasonal ensemble is supposed to consist of 27 member. For some reason (lack of time/money?) they've omitted one of the the "nudges" they mention in the last paragraph here:
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/overview.html

For creating ensemble members based on initial conditions in our prediction system, model sea surface temperature is nudged toward three different observed sea surface temperatures besides three different negative feedback values to the surface heat flux. In addition, three different atmosphere-ocean coupling schemes are employed to represent other ensemble members. Through this processes, in total 27 ensemble members are employed for our seasonal to interannual climate predictions initiated every month.

Not many forum members from there though? I was replying to David and both of us live in a part with a cold anomaly. 

Except Mongolia that is....

We had our first taste of Winter in Dublin this morning with 3 hours of transitional snow. Didtnt  lodge but it was so nice to see Temperatures took a nose dive fom +7 when I left to go to work to+1 just above freezing, Real good stuff. Roll on December

Re the Jamstec - I love how it is just Mongolia that's blue!

No more orangey glow over the town.

I do understand what you mean. That orangey glow was something my mother used to say was a 'sign of snow' even: who needs 850s?

But that was in the 70s.

Joseph Farquharson was a Scottish painter who could have been an anywhere-in-England painter with his orange sun on the snow. His paintings are something to enjoy in winters like last year's. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Farquharson

We had ours done a year or so back...funnily enough they don't seem as good for lampost watching....but that may well be because the first winter to try them out on was 15/16.....

This SST anomaly map is alarming in many respects though there is at least one piece of good news. The positive anomalies in the Arctic seas are large, and cannot be denied or ignored.  Their cause I will leave you to figure out yourselves. 

One line of thinking could be that the warmth is now so anomalous that the disruptions to the lower atmosphere must be significant, and if this disruption can propagate into the upper atmosphere then, in some parts of the world, (ie NW Europe) a disruption of the PV, and possibly a zonal westerly flow, could be of benefit as cold air (albeit less cold than in ideal scenarios in decades past) could ooze our way as the winter develops.  Here we are in autumn, but the signs are promising in terms of the PV.

My view is that it will be a waiting game, and eventually in December we could see a Scandi-Icelandic High which might form for a week or so and bring a cold snap bringing wet snow to prone locations.

A further positive to be drawn from the map, is that in the seas of warm seas off the Grand Banks there are some negative anomalies, and in areas of colder seas off Newfoundland there are warm anomalies.  Net result - a less steep thermal gradient for cyclogenesis.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ncoda_web/dynamic/ncoda_1440x721_global_anom.gif

Interesting this year, things are.

I am baffled by the QBO.We currently have record number of consecutive  QBO + months 17 to be precise.One might expect a stronger polar vortex rather than a weaker one.A possible explanation  being advanced is  that the Arctic currently has record breaking + temperature anomalies which would have the effect of reducing the normal temperature gradient thus weakening the jet.

Dec: Slightly warmer than Normal

Jan: Slightly colder than normal

Feb: Colder than normal

https://business.weather.com/news/european-seasonal-forecast-unusual-early-season-cold-a-sign-of-further-wintry-conditions