Highly unlikely from CFS that gives an 11 day cold spell

You'll do for me SC !

The huge 2 month slug of high pressure over Southern Europe is a Bartlett that would have terrified the man himself!

If Paul is looking down on us now he must be feeling very sorry for the tortured members of TWO.

Andy

Hi david

Yes it was zonal and mild, but if IIRC, we (down sarf) had a brief very frosty/settled spell mid month, when a Greenland high tried to establish. I think the Greenland high remained for the rest of the month, but it was to weak an affair/orientation was not quite right, that it could not exert any major influence on our weather. We normally look for yellows and oranges on the charts to show a solid high (I think?) but I in this case the greenie was very pale green. 

I think I have recalled this fairly accurately, but I guess only historic charts would prove me right or wrong. I think this was linked to MVH leaving TWO over a discussion around misinterpretation of the ECM 32 dater anomaly charts, which he slightly misread and Retron (Darren) read correctly, i.e. the pressure anomaly was what we wanted, but in the wrong place.

Rohan

O/T

Friday night / Saturday morning snow for the N Midlands and oarts of N England

Back on Topic

Thomas Sc;kjashvaoeker saying how much uncertainty there is at the minute , mentioned at the end of the period colder NWlies could well swing in behind the LP's ...very similar to the ECM 240 chart

Speculation.

Well 240hrs may be 10 days away, but it isn't what I would describe as deepest FI. Therefore although charts for that range should be treated with caution, there is IMO more chance of charts at that range verifying as shown compared to those shown for T+384, the end point of the GFS runs.

again, wants and tries to get to an easterly, but its shunted off to the east whilst the uk makes friends with good ol' south westerly.

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20151210/18/150/h850t850eu.png;

The ECM-32 control run is very similar up to Christmas, with a seasonal mix of milder days and colder days. Thereafter it builds high pressure strongly to the SE, resulting in a run of mild or very mild days.

😊🤓

At one stage there are a five consecutive days of long draw south wrstetlies - yuck!

There are a number of blowtorch runs on offer this morning for the second half of next week and I'd also not discount the chance of some exceptionally mild temperatures in the south Wed to Fri. 

12c -10c. Forecast until Sunday 20th. 7c-8c Overnight.   Mild indeed from BBC Weather Peasedown St John.  ....

Yes the ECM has been consistent with something exceptional for late next week. Horrific stuff this morning for winter fans.

Although there's still a cold cluster in the 4-7 day range on both GEFS (3/21) and ECM (~7/51) it does look as though the milder cluster will win out this time. At least this weekend will see a break from the relentless wind and mild gunk, it's just that this time around the ridging won't be strong enough to sustain the change for long.

The next window of opportunity is around the 19th, when again the ensembles show a milder cluster and a colder cluster. It should come as no surprise that last night's ECM op run was right at the top of the mildest cluster and I strongly suspect today's 0z op will be similar.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=0&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

Continuing mild or very mild for the foreseeable. The cooler dips are brief on the tail ends of cold fronts that are soon swept away by the next atlantic front in a generally mobile set up. 

Unless the laws of physics have been rewritten overnight or the sun has doubled its output then it has to be at or near the top! 

Nothing more to be said Winter is dead! Insane warmth.

http://www.knmi.nl/nederland-nu/weer/waarschuwingen-en-verwachtingen/ensemble-verwachting-detail

Just to cheer people up something nice JFF in the la la land that is CFS:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=966&mode=0&carte=0&run=0

Have to say at the moment today's run from the GFS is looking a bit of a blowtorch for Christmas day itself, still a long way away but no real sign at the moment of any real change so the CET record could be smashed at this rate. If anyone had any doubts a strong El Nino had no effect on the UK weather I think Nov / Dec this year and 97/98 pretty much confirm it does, it makes the damn azores high become a squatter over northern France! 

I also feel that there is still an outside chance that one of the "blowtorch" runs could produce a record December daily temp next week. It's almost as fascinating as looking at cold charts seeing how warm it may get.

Looks to be a transient event mainly over higher ground? 

It's interesting that the CFS V2 has been predicting a very mild, Atlantic driven pattern for months and months;

This is it's December 2015 700z forecast from July;

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2_fcst_history/201507/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd6.gif

The signal has only strengthened from here without any deviation. Can't remember CFS being so consistent but it's just typical that the one time it is this consistent from six months away it's the mild, zonal signal it gets right.