Its not an outlier, it is on the milder side of the ensembles with some support.  An outlier means it is out of kilter with other ens runs.

Call for Darren

DAAAARRRRRRRRREEEEEEENNNNNNNNN

LOL

In the medium to longer term it is certainly on of the warmer options with a big "averagish" cluster.

Very little, it has to be said

Thanks Michael 

Martin

No, it has support as you can see, at times not far from the mean.

It is fairly representative until day 6 (next Monday) after that it could for all intents and purposes be declared an outlier.

your definition of outlier is very different from mine.

Indeed, doesn't look much of an outlier to me, unless I am missing something?

Yes, it is what it looks like to me.

Well the (not my) fpdefinitin if an outlier is smelling that is not part of a group of representative or a main grouping. If you think that the ECM does not fit that description in the time period I describe that is your prerogative. It is certainly n an outlier in the next 6 days but I have clearly stated that already.

Everything is an outlier beyond a certain point, and that point is coming closer compared to normal modelling. Taxi for Shannon? Surname Entropy?

It's all good fun. 

Yes, I think you must be.  Do you see the red line from day 6 to 10 that is away from the main groupings? 

I still don't get this "outlier" thing. It's a bit like a football fan trying to explain the offside rule to me and I still wouldn't be any wiser for it. I have tried to Google "outlier" but I ended up finding out I have 231 type of illnesses and 145 of them are potentially fatal.

Anyway, back on topic, I'm actually struggling with the outcome for this weekend (will it be a wet or dry one for here at Kent), never mind anything beyond that but I'm sure the water will be less muddy tomorrow morning when I do my next personal forecast.

Only I'm not. The general north Atlantic pattern is not that far removed from the mean at day 10. Local differences such as what your red lines represent mean little when set against the bigger picture.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif  Op at day 10

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2402.gif  Mean at day 10

O/T

The 21:55 showed nothing of what GFS is showing , in the end went for full on Atlantic attack with LP's hitting the UK

Fingers crossed this isnt going to cause yet more rain...

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20151208/18/105/ukmaxtemp.png 

Some places could end up with a surprise snow event from this i think

And now for something completely different - I give you the 18z at 138 hours:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=138&mode=0&carte=1

When there is so much variation in the output. you know something is brewing.

Gfs 18z certainly is very different at T132 with the low about six hundred or so miles further south west than on the 12z. At least the models are generating some interest at last!

Just another option in FI

And I give you this

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1502.gif

as yet another example of how much the models are struggling. The disputed genesis of this development is much earlier on, hence the degree of scepticism on anything beyond 3 days at present. Shannon!

The 18Z is problematic - sure, it gives a Scandi HP, but it is damn all use to us in the given timeframe, because heights remain stubbornly high over central Europe,

A Scandi HP without LP to our south is as much use as a chocolate teapot.

I see that LP from the subtropics is causing a lot of issues. The 18z GFS op has moved toward ECM wrt that but other elements remain different.