The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

molitor
21 December 2013 17:56:20

Indeed, I think it's now time to get nervous and check to see if house insurance policy are up to date. That's going to hurt their coffers but good news for the building trade.

Eagerly awaiting the next runs to see if they soften the blow but I have a feeling it's not going to be good news.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Did you fix your roof?

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 



Indeed, all fixed up and good as new. Now here's hoping the roof remains attached to the house by Christmas.

Originally Posted by: idj20 

Joking aside Ian, I am "concerned" at this stage by the forecast for 23/24 December.

For me a SW is far better than a Southerly as my house is much more sheltered that way.  Gusts of around 80-85mph are forecast on a direct southerly and I am conscious of this. Hmmm...

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

The 12z GFS has upped the maximum wind gusts further for the SE quarter on Monday, which is not good news.  Not only that but the gusts of 60-75mph keep going from 3pm on Monday until 3am on Tuesday, a full 12 hours.

Isle of Wight and Channel Islands have gusts of 75-80mph for six hours overnight Monday into Tuesday.

Gusts:

At 9am the system is starting to affect the far west: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/45-289UK.GIF?21-12

by Noon, well into western areas: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/48-289UK.GIF?21-12

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/51-289UK.GIF?21-12 

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/54-289UK.GIF?21-12 

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/57-289UK.GIF?21-12 

At Midnight little movement, still covering an area from The Wash to IoW: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/60-289UK.GIF?21-12

 

Average wind speed for the SE for the six hours from 6pm to Midnight on Xmas Eve are predicted to be 35-40mph

6pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/54-602UK.GIF?21-12

9pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/57-602UK.GIF?21-12

Midnight: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/60-602UK.GIF?21-12

That's Force 7 sustained for 6 hours

 

 

Originally Posted by: idj20 

 

Mmmmn - Guernsey has had it pretty rough today with the wind and rain....  Its not looking pretty for us for Monday!  

Si Mundus vult decipi, ergo decipiatur
Global Warming
21 December 2013 17:58:17

Rainfall totals also very worrying given the ground is saturated. Here is the NMM accumulated precipitation up to 12z Tuesday. Many places can expect 50mm plus and some parts, especially higher ground, will see more than 100mm.

So significant flooding and wind damage combined could ruin Christmas for many unfortunately. The potential for serious disruption cannot be overstated at this point.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2013122112/nmm-25-72-1.png?21-18

Whether Idle
21 December 2013 18:03:47

Rainfall totals also very worrying given the ground is saturated. Here is the NMM accumulated precipitation up to 12z Tuesday. Many places can expect 50mm plus and some parts, especially higher ground, will see more than 100mm.

So significant flooding and wind damage combined could ruin Christmas for many unfortunately. The potential for serious disruption cannot be overstated at this point.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2013122112/nmm-25-72-1.png?21-18

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Up to 4 inches in 3 days over the North Downs.  Sheesh Man!

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gandalf The White
21 December 2013 18:15:43

ECM shows Monday's low pressure down to sub-925mb at T+72 (Noon).  That's 80mb of deepening in 48 hours....

T+24: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122112/ECM1-24.GIF?21-0

T+72: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122112/ECM1-72.GIF?21-0

 

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Stormchaser
21 December 2013 18:43:25

I have been trying to make the jaws of friends and family drop by showing them the charts for Monday, but most of them are not very familiar with them so it doesn't have the desired impact

 http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131221/12/57/windvector.png

That there is the most epic wind chart I have seen since I started watching the models half a decade ago. The spatial coverage of those near-60mph sustained winds puts many low-end hurricanes to shame!

The frontal system advancing across the UK during the day looks to be a right monster, with a real focusing of the wind energy to generate some extreme gusts, with 60-70mph widespread and 80mph or so very much possible even inland - as has been well discussed by many on here already.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/57-289.GIF?21-12

The GFS version is similar to the WRF-NMM version, though marginally less severe with 110-120kph (68-75mph) rather than 120-130kph gusts.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Whether Idle
21 December 2013 18:47:46

I have been trying to make the jaws of friends and family drop by showing them the charts for Monday, but most of them are not very familiar with them so it doesn't have the desired impact

 http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131221/12/57/windvector.png

That there is the most epic wind chart I have seen since I started watching the models half a decade ago. The spatial coverage of those near-60mph sustained winds puts many low-end hurricanes to shame!

The frontal system advancing across the UK during the day looks to be a right monster, with a real focusing of the wind energy to generate some extreme gusts, with 60-70mph widespread and 80mph or so very much possible even inland - as has been well discussed by many on here already.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/57-289.GIF?21-12

The GFS version is similar to the WRF-NMM version, though marginally less severe with 110-120kph (68-75mph) rather than 120-130kph gusts.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Hmm, not for the faint-hearted.

Off for a curry!  Im going to have a look tomorrow and hope that things have moderated just a tad.

WI

 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
glenogle
21 December 2013 19:13:34

Off for a curry!  

WI

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

 

There is no need to make the situation any worse 

UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
Stormchaser
21 December 2013 19:17:18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-18-1-72.png?12

It worries me that scenarios like this are still within the possible range. It means that the trend to deepen the storm further could continue further 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Gooner
21 December 2013 19:45:30

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-18-1-72.png?12

It worries me that scenarios like this are still within the possible range. It means that the trend to deepen the storm further could continue further 

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

I'm not really looking forward to that at all....................................who is?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gandalf The White
21 December 2013 19:52:28

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-18-1-72.png?12

It worries me that scenarios like this are still within the possible range. It means that the trend to deepen the storm further could continue further 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

I'm not really looking forward to that at all....................................who is?

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Based on earlier exchanges, Saint might be fairly happy.  Probably wants the centre 200 miles further south.....

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



SEMerc
21 December 2013 20:12:40

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-18-1-72.png?12

It worries me that scenarios like this are still within the possible range. It means that the trend to deepen the storm further could continue further 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

I'm not really looking forward to that at all....................................who is?

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

I'm certainly not. I'm due to be flying out on Monday.

Saint Snow
21 December 2013 20:25:04

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-18-1-72.png?12

It worries me that scenarios like this are still within the possible range. It means that the trend to deepen the storm further could continue further 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

I'm not really looking forward to that at all....................................who is?

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Based on earlier exchanges, Saint might be fairly happy.  Probably wants the centre 200 miles further south.....

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

 

 

Perhaps 400

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

JoeShmoe99
21 December 2013 20:35:06

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-18-1-72.png?12

It worries me that scenarios like this are still within the possible range. It means that the trend to deepen the storm further could continue further 

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Good grief

I've told my parents to travel Mon am and have warned friends to try and avoid travel Xmas eve

Sadly there is every possibility that the storm could not only ruin a lot of people's Xmas but cause real danger to the traveling public. The storm we had up here a few weeks ago where there were fatalities wasn't as severe as this one is forecast to be

NickR
21 December 2013 20:55:51

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-18-1-72.png?12

It worries me that scenarios like this are still within the possible range. It means that the trend to deepen the storm further could continue further 

Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 



Good grief

I've told my parents to travel Mon am and have warned friends to try and avoid travel Xmas eve

Sadly there is every possibility that the storm could not only ruin a lot of people's Xmas but cause real danger to the traveling public. The storm we had up here a few weeks ago where there were fatalities wasn't as severe as this one is forecast to be

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

My parents are travelling from Canterbury to Durham. I've told them Monday leaving 6am to get here by 12pm or 24th at the same time, just as the winds are dying down in Kent... 24th looks OK for most of England apart from here in the NE, so a journey here from the south should be OK although with a tricky last 45 mins.

That's my thinking, anyway.

Nick

Durham

[email protected]

patricia
21 December 2013 22:20:26

I,m worried about the 23rd where I live as I have to go to a funeral

tinybill
21 December 2013 22:22:35

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

look like fun for  us  monday winds of 74  mph monday  night  ,bbc saying  at  the  moment 964  mb   so all be verycarefull  this one  could as bad as  st  jude 

NickR
21 December 2013 22:25:33

I,m worried about the 23rd where I live as I have to go to a funeral

Originally Posted by: patricia 



Sorry to hear that, Patricia. What time? If it's the morning you'll be OK.

Nick

Durham

[email protected]

Steam Fog
21 December 2013 22:27:44
schmee
21 December 2013 22:32:16
The BBC confirm the winds and amounts of rain. Flooding a real problem for low laying worst effected areas. Yep and stormy after. yuck
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
doctormog
21 December 2013 22:35:18
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem721.gif  (note that this is the ECM ensemble mean from the 12z data)
Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Global Warming
21 December 2013 22:43:45

The 18z run is not for the faint hearted. Seriously nasty conditions shown on this run. The second storm at the end of next week warrants just as much attention as the first one before Christmas. It is not as deep but it becomes very slow moving right over the UK bringing wild weather for an extended period of time.

12z Monday low at 948mb to the west of Scotland
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122118/42-515UK.GIF?21-18

6z Tuesday low centre is 927mb off the NW of Scotland
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122118/60-515UK.GIF?21-18

The second storm reaches its peak before it even gets to the UK because it moves so slowly. Here it is at 939mb at 12z on Friday
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122118/138-515UK.GIF?21-18

Ireland is in the firing line Friday evening
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122118/144-515UK.GIF?21-18

Even by 18z on Saturday the winds are still very strong across most of the UK despite the low having filled somewhat
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122118/168-515UK.GIF?21-18

Another secondary low develops for Sunday and the winds pick up again
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122118/186-515UK.GIF?21-18
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122118/192-515UK.GIF?21-18

The next system moves in on Monday evening after which things finally calm down a bit
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122118/gfs-0-216.png?18

glenogle
21 December 2013 23:22:08
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem721.gif  (note that this is the ECM ensemble mean from the 12z data)

So impressive. It's going to be interesting that's for sure

UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
shayne109
22 December 2013 01:06:00

dear lord

i know its still a long way out in model terms

but the potential for something very nasty is there

i do hope the right folks are taking notice and

setting up contingencys to deal with possible

impacts on infrastructure.

Shayne

Davis VP2

Lambourn ,Berkshire

AWEKAS :-18017

WOW :-sta LambournEast

Weather Underground :- IHUNGE20

PWS Weather sta :- LAMBOURNEAST

Remove ads from site