As you were. Carrot dangling confirmed.

There's plenty of time and scope for change, often with the GFS it is on the upside wrt temperatures so you could be right. However, that isn't what is shown at the moment.

I'm trying to work out if this is trolling or just a lack of understanding. 

Brian's animation highlights the possibilities in the current output nicely and to dismiss it as you do is just simply wrong. 

Of course we have the usual caveats but there is some very interesting output for next week, all the moreso when it follows a significantly less interesting period of weather.

Cool, unsettled and potentially wintry sums up next week's outlook at present. It could end up just being the first two parts of course but time will tell.

Keeps me awake at night as the house shakes!!

I disagree for what it's worth. Based on the MO currently I think there is potential for something a bit more than that.

Looks like they are bringing in a small area of low pressure.

And a few runs eg 26 never even get the cold air into the south as high pressure lobes across into France. Seems to be a growing trend to watch, HP being more dominant across the south and preventing the trough digging south.

It's the result of a complex low moving over and around the UK, rather than the clean feed that it showed in its 0z output. Marginal, of course, but good to see nonetheless!

NB, you'll have to go to Meteociel to see the snow charts, but here's the TWO view of SLP - as others have noted, synoptically it's superb - if you're a cold fan!

It looks like winter will arrive a couple of weeks early this year! 😁

We didn't get it till later than this I don't think and the majority of us poor old pensioners would prefer it spent on the NHS!

The 12Z data so far looks like an "upgrade" for cold weather fans. The GFS is interesting in that it (at a glance cause I don't have much time) appears to serve up a number of marginal rain - snow events with the jet stream displaced south for a long period.

T+144 

T+204 

(And yes, that site has the 12z run before the traditional older sites do!)

The -10c line is pulling away too far north though. A sleety messy mess is all I'm seeing. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

It will feel seasonal. Translates to 5c daytime maxes for nearly a week:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=202&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

BUT without some hefty and continued upgrades most of us are looking at wet, not white. 

Shame in this country when the moisture is there the necessary cold rarely is to go with it.

If everything pans out as the models indicate, winter will arrive here around a week earlier than happened in 2010. The first snow of the late Nov/Dec 2010 freeze arrived on the night of Friday 26th November IIRC. This was three weeks earlier than when mid-Dec 2009 to mid-January 2010 freeze commenced, which was pretty notable in itself as there have been very few Novembers in the last 30 years or so which have produced any snow in my neck of the woods.

There was a fair bit of snow in Nov 2017 if I remember correct, which constantly melted and refroze to form one of the most horrific and prolonged black ice episodes I've ever seen.  An ugly mess that I see happening again this time around. 

Sounds a bit like this place, when tensions run high. 

On another note, where’s Moomin? 

Both GFS and ECM this morning have huge snow events for the North England next Tuesday.  Hopefully personally the low goes further south. They often do.