GFS Op - LP currently in the N Sea generating N-lies moving away N-wards in the next couple of days while HP moves in from the SW reaching its maximum 1040mb Shetland Wed 18th with broad ridge to Norway, and E-lies for England. It then retrogresses to Greenland and by Sun 22nd slack pressure ca 1016mb covers most of Europe. A new LP arises from this 980mb Dogger Wed 25th with new strong N-lies for Britain before again moving N-wards by the following weekend. Ex-hurricanes on the Atlantic are off the menu today.

ECM - similar to GFS though HP a day or two slower to establish as LP runs past NW Scotland Mon 16th

GEM - also similar to GFS; run only available to Sat 21st but at that point HP not retrogressing but rather beginning to extend a ridge to the SE

GEFS - temps recovering abruptly to norm Sun 15th and then with fair ens agreement a little (in the S) or much (in the N) above norm for the following week; then with less agreement dropping away esp in Scotland, spoilt by a short dip in op & control but not the majority Tue 17th. Very little rain for the whole period, a few small blips (showers?) at first, perhaps more in the N & W from Tue 24th.

GFS Op - current LP and trough soon away N-wards; HP moving in from SW and although LP brushes past NW Scotland at first, the HP soon establishes itself 1040mb Sutherland Tue 17th with broad ridge to Norway. This stays in place for the week though LP over Biscay increasingly threatens the SW and also generates stronger E-lies for England. By Sun 22nd the HP retreats to Greenland, The Biscayan LP extends a trough NE-wards to Norway and Britain comes under N-lies from Mon 23rd. Those fade after a couple of days, and after a brief interval a new Atlantic LP arrives 980 mb Donegal Sat 28th - winds mostly S-ly but quite a lot of cold air trapped in its circulation.

ECM - somewhat similar to GFS but less influence of LP from Biscay and then a distinct difference Sun 22nd when the HP instead of retreating NW-wards moves S-wards to England with the ridge to Scandinavia still much in evidence. This model has a well-organised ex-hurricane on mid-Atlantic by then; GFS if anything only has fragments which however may be responsible for the above LP Sun 28th.

GEM - closer to ECM; the HP still there on 22nd but still over Scotland. This model leaves out the ex-hurricane.

GEFS - in the S temps recover to norm by Sun 15th and stay there with good ens agreement until about Tue 24th when agreement breaks up - probably becoming cooler, the mean being driven in that direction by op & control. In the N, after the temp recovers on the 15th, a second jump to much above norm by Tue 17th. That slowly declines and from Tue 24th more likely to be cool than in the S including some very cold ens members. 

Very little rain throughout in most places but chances of some rain later on in the far W.

GFS Op - HP moving in from the SW to cover Britain 1030mb by Mon 16th, though LP brushing NW Scotland while the HP gets established. For the following week it first strengthens with broad ridge to Norway but then moves N- and E-wards and weakens as shallow LP moves up from Biscay to cover England 1015mb Sat 21st. For some days most of N Europe has a slack pressure regime with HP lurking to the SW but not really dominating, resolved by a depression from the Atlantic running across N Scotland 980mb Shetland Sat 28th with W-lies for England and the near continent.

ECM - treats the breakdown of the HP differently; HP is maintained until Mon 23rd when it splits into a western and an eastern half with shallow LPs linking up from both N & S.

GEM - closer to GFS but the Biscayan LP keeps to the W and affects SW Ireland rather than England Sat 21st with SE-lies for most of Britain

GEFS - for  S England, temps soon recovering and staying near norm through to Sun 29th though ens agreement breaks up after 25th. In Scotland & N England, rather better than norm around Wed 18th  but slowly dropping back. Everywhere dry until about Mon 23rd after which an increasing number of runs have variable amounts of rain (but a small blip Sun 15th in the west). 

Universal agreement for high pressure to migrate to our NE and ridge SW'wards over/beyond the UK, and remain like that for a few/several days.

Looking forward to it.

And very interesting set-up that we not see this for so long time and none of this year.  Used to be often in Spring season.  This current northerly had broke this unfavourite 2024 pattern that had been stuck since last year to something different. 1.1C this morning are interesting for not even yet mid September.

As long as low pressure over mainland Europe doesn't throw the spanner in the works as we go into next week, southern and eastern parts of the UK could end up having a lot of cloud and drizzle muck out of that while West Is Best. Probably would deliver something of a wintry note if it is late January/early February, though (most likely still be cold drizzle anyway).

Sea temps are still high enough not to bring cloud and muck to the coastal areas than in Spring?

Did it 3 weeks ago. High 30s all the way on a millpond although did see lightening in the far distance at night on a couple of occasions. Got back and the weather took a dramatic turn. 

GFS Op - HP moving in from the SW and forming a large area, at its greatest extent Wed 18th 1030mb from Ireland to Norway. Then its drifts N-wards with slack LP increasingly affecting S England until Sun 22nd, when the HP collapses as LPs move in from the Atlantic. These LPs are on the N Atlantic conveyor but have troughs extending S-wards which have been augmented by remnants of hurricanes, moist air rather than storms - Tue 24th 990mb Rockall, Sun 29th 980mb Orkney.

ECM - similar to GFS

GEM - like GFS at first however the subsequent Atlantic LPs are weaker but run further south, 1000mb English Channel Mon 23rd, and being followed by another from the Atlantic

GEFS - temps in the S close to or a little above norm through to end of Sept, good ens agreement to Mon 23rd, then divergence. Rain starts about that date and shows as heavier rain in more runs (but not all) than was the case yesterday. In the N, similar but for several days around Wed 18th temp is some 5C above norm 

More concern this HP seem a dirty high as lot of clouds formed yesterday and this morning totally not expected but being 2024  mean every HP is cloudy one.   Sea temps this time of the year don’t bring clouds inland from my experience living in Surrey as normally occur in Spring time with sea temps at coldest. Winds more off from the continent so little sea tracking for the south.

Yes, I’ve been reading reports of recent bad weather on the cruise forums and that’s why I’m interested.  I love a good thunder storm, but not constant rain.  We did a similar itinerary in October 2022 and the weather was perfect the whole two weeks.

GFS Op - HP from the SW establishing over Britain with ridge to Norway 1030mb N Sea by Wed 18th. This gradually moves N-wards and by Sun 22nd a shallow LP from the S covers England 1015mb. Renewed Atlantic activity brings in LP 980mb N Scotland Wed 25th, this deepening and moving to Norway with associated cold N/NW-lies just off NE Scotland though a small secondary LP runs across England. By Mon 30th another LP forms S of Iceland with a trough stretching well S-wards as the result of some hurricane remnants in its circulation.

ECM - similar to GFS at first, but the HP never quite goes away and re-forms into a narrow N-S ridge over W Britain Tue 24th between the LPs on the Atlantic 960mb and that in Norway, not as deep or cold as in GFS. 

GEM - like GFS but in final frame Wed 25th the LP near Scotland connects with a train of LPs stretching SW-wards over the Atlantic

GEFS - mean stays close to norm to end of Sept (well above for week 1 in Scotland and N England), good ens agreement to Wed 25th when a bunch of cold outliers appears. Dry to about Mon 23th, and staying fairly dry in most runs; those that do show rain do so in large quantities. 

I'd still advise taking a couple of large umbrellas!

GFS Op - a broad band of HP setting up from Scotland to Norway this week, but collapsing at the weekend as LP moves in from the SW, 1010mb Brittany Sun 22nd. This allows LPs to run past N Scotland in week 2 e.g. 985mb Rockall Wed 25th while HP returns to S England. The consequent W-lies last for a few days before a large area of cold LP develops 975mb Faeroes Wed 2nd with a trough extending S to the Channel.

ECM - similar to GFS but the LP for Rockall is flabbier, however there is a small intense ex?-hurricane in its circulation approaching SW Ireland.

GEM - closer to ECM, the LP from Brittany clears to the NE and pressure rises while the LP for Rockall stalls in the Atlantic until the ex-hurricanes (two in this model) stir things up

GEFS - temps near or slightly (in the S) or definitely (in the N) above norm with good agreement until about Wed 25th, after which mean stays near norm, optimism from op & control balanced by some cold outliers. Rain appears in the profile from Sun 22nd or a couple of days later in the N, most runs have small amounts but several have intermittent (in the S) or frequent (in the N) downpours. 

With yesterday frontal rain cut short this settled spell to few days now. Was totally misleading forecast that we get settled from late Friday onward.  Forget this Saint let focus next year can’t get any worse than that.

GFS Op - broad area of HP for N Britain ridging towards Norway for this week but collapsing as LP moves up from the south, 1015mb English Channel Sun 22nd. This LP and another one further north soon slide E-wards and HP resumes for a few days 1025mb S England Wed 25th. After a short period of W-lies, a trough develops on the Atlantic and sits off N Ireland through to Thu 3rd, looking wet in the west and strong SW-lies elsewhere.

ECM - as GFS to Sun 22nd, then HP fails to appear and instead an Atlantic LP develops quickly and is situated 975mb Shetland Thu 26th with strong N-lies for all (compare GEFS)

GEM - after Sun 22nd the LPs do not clear and instead of HP resuming, a trough in the N Sea brings in N-lies Wed 25th, like ECM but of a different origin

GEFS - mean temps near norm to Thu 3rd (or a bit above in Scotland at first) with good agreement between ens members to Wed 25th but a lot of variation after that (op & control notably cold for a couple of days at the 25th away from the SW). Rain starts about Sat 21st in the SW, 25th in the NE, more prevalent than shown yesterday, most runs with little rain but some showing big totals , and looking rather wet in the NW later.

You couldn't go in June when it more drier?   Thursday looking last time to see low to mid 20's before dropping off.slowly.