GFS Op - the pattern of LP near NW Scotland and HP over France continues for the next two weeks with winds for Britain from a W-ly point. The current LP is displaced by a very deep LP developed out of hurricane Ernesto (960mb S of Iceland Thu 22nd). This is further N and closer than shown yesterday so pushing troughs across Britain, and unlike shown yesterday not generating HP in front of its approach. As it moves away, some HP nosing in from the SW Thu 29th.

ECM - similar to GFS until Ernesto takes a more S-ly course and runs into the Hebrides Fri 23rd 975mb

GEM - Ernesto even further S, crossing S England but as a weak feature on Thu 22nd

GEFS - mean temps remain near norm (tendency for above in S, below in N) for rest of August but the mean is surrounded by a wide variation in ens members. Very little rain for the S, but heavy in N after Mon 19th and esp in NW

The precip spikes seem to be melting away, for the south at least. Still some pretty warm runs in there (and a couple bringing brief shots of near-zero upper air)

September is another summer month these days. I remember the old days of playing rugger in the mud at school after going back after the summer holidays. Nowadays the ground is too hard

Soon will be watching out for Sept and with my off work 2 to 19th so hope to get my first sunny heatwave or very warm prolonged sunny days.  Today a lot warmer and sunnier than yesterday one.

Even just halfway up the country and a very different picture:

I think it’s likely, given the way temps have yo-yo’d this summer. It’s been notable how readily it’s risen from below average one day, to above average the next, rather than a steady rise.  

Well, it's been warm here for weeks, and will be for another week - true, there was see-sawing in both June and July, but the unusually cool start to July seems a million miles away now!

Those of us in the far SE are in a warm, dry rut at the moment, enhanced by Debbie, and until the pattern changes we're stuck with it. The MetO raw shows temperatures remaining above average all the way out to day 8, and so far every day in the last 3 weeks has been above average...

SSTs have now reached 21C in the Thames Estuary (and also locally along the East Sussex Channel coast), so not much relief from that direction... note too, how the cooler waters around the Westcountry show up, it explains why it's cooler down there.

https://www.meteociel.fr/obs/sst/2024-08-12.gif 

I think before the summer started if you said you'd have a spell of a month from late-July to late-August with warmer than average conditions, only 4mm of rain and endless sunshine, most people (not me!) would snap your arms off for it.

As I've said before, come to Kent for your holidays folks! 😂

GFS Op - LP N of Scotland with W/SW winds over Britain for the next 10 days and troughs moving W-ward from time to time, first governed by the present depression then by a deeper one formed by ex-hurricane Ernesto 965mb S Iceland Thu 22nd. After that a change of pattern as a secondary spawned by Ernesto slides SE-wards, 1000mb past SW Ireland Mon 26th followed by a strong rise of pressure for N Britain as part of a ridge from Atlantic to Norway while (possibly thundery) LP sits over the SE 1015 mb Thu 29th.

ECM - similar to GFS though pressure higher esp in S until Ernesto arrives

GEM - the SE-sliding LP is generated by Ernesto as early as Thu 22nd but then the rest of Ernesto goes back to reinforcing the LP N of Scotland and W-lies return

GEFS - mean temps near norm or a little above i S or a little below in N to end of August though with a lot of variation between ens members; suggestions of warmer periods in S Fri 23rd and Wed 28th, less marked in N. A widespread brief spell of rain tomorrow Thu 15th, then in the S Mainly dry , just a little rain from time to time; in the N more persistent from Mon 19th but decreasing later.

WX temp charts - profile for the next two weeks not showing much change; cool across N Scotland and N Scandinavia, comfortably warm (i.e. a little above norm) for NW Europe including England, hot south of the Alps. A development of extremely hot weather shown in week 2 between Black and Caspian Seas. Rain in week 1 on Atlantic and less heavy but quite widely over C Europe; in week 2 the Atlantic rain retreats W-ward and the continental stuff organises into a band from Norway to Italy, S England very dry throughout grading to wet in NW Scotland.

GFS Op - the general pattern of LP near NW Scotland and HP over France continues to the end of August (yesterday's chart showed HP developing later on but this has gone). From time to time the LP dips further S, wetter for Scotland, also affecting N parts of England (Tue 20th, Sat 24th including remnants of Ernesto which yesterday was shown as deep LP in its own right, Sat 31st).

ECM - similar to GFS except that the LPs are mostly further N and have less effect on Britain BUT Ernesto arrives and adds one extra trough traversing Britain well south on Thu 24th.

GEM - like ECM, and the Ernesto trough affecting areas even further S

GEFS - In S England, temps near or a little above norm, poor agreement between ens members but suggestions of something warmer near Fri 23rd and again a week later, very dry with tonight's rain the last significant for some time except in far SW. In the N, similar temp profile from a lower base i.e. mean a little below norm, plus a cooler spell for the next few days. Rain in many runs from Tue 20th, amounts small in most but not all cases, but larger amounts and more frequent in far NW.

I always forget that, when you hotlink to a model chart on here, it changes with each run.

That GEFS graph looks a fair bit drier than it did when I made that post two days ago.

No drought here. Certainly a very dry period - not much rain since mid-July but a few mm here and there - and it's a relief that the rain finally stopped! Water tables are falling back down and thick mud that has been in our local woods all year has dried out at last. Landscape has that lovely brown tinged late summer appearance. All good and in readiness for the inevitable autumn wind and rain not far over the horizon. 

4mm here in the past 3 and a bit weeks. The dust clouds raised by my neighbour's cocker spaniel running around my garden earlier were most impressive, mind you!

Hopefully we'll both see some useable rain tonight, it seems the front will for once perk up once it reaches us... GFS suggests around 5mm here in the early hours, which is a good time... during daylight hours it'd just evaporate. The concern though is that the concrete-like soils around here will just mean the rain runs off.

Incidentally, and on a completely different subject, does anyone else on here upload weather station data to WOW? Not Warcraft, but the Met Office knock-off of Weather Underground.

The reason I mention it is that the forecasts here have become much more accurate recently, within a degree of what's seen on the ground. Coincidentally I have the only WOW station in the area and, maybe, my little weather station is being factored in to the Met Office's model. Here's a quote which raises the possibility, from a tendering document . Note the bit in bold!

"The Met Office has been operating the Weather Observations Website (WOW) since 2012, enabling members of the public to submit their weather station observations and exploiting them as an increasingly important source of third party data for use in forecast applications."

GFS Op - The pattern of LP generally near Iceland and HP in Biscay continues for the next two weeks, with episodes in which a deeper LP develops and/or troughs affect areas further south e.g. on Tue 20th (just an extended trough), Thu 22nd (985mb Hebrides, incl remains of Ernesto), Sat 24th (locally 985mb Cape Wrath),  then a weak circulation until Sun 1st (990mb Rockall). Sat 24th is BH w/e.

ECM - similar to GFS though no clear distinction between Thu 22nd and Sat 24th, and this grouping has a trail oof rather cool N-lies on Mon 26th

GEM - Similar to GFS except that the LP on Sat 24th does not develop and indeed pressure rises over most of Britain at that time, up to 1025mb

GEFS - In the S, mean temp mostly near norm through the remainder of August, but a significant number of runs suggesting something warmer Wed 21st, Sat 24th, and Thu 29th, certainly not the 40C clickbait from some media outlets, and of course cooler in between these dates. Very little rain, a few runs have spikes in w/b Tue 20th. In the N, similar temp pattern though the emphasis is on the cooler periods between the above dates; rain begins around Tue 20th and continues in small amounts in the NE, large amounts in the NW.

I'd include West Kent in the drought area, with signs such as areas of mown grass turning yellow, and rock-hard clay soil in my garden. I've been watering with the hosepipe to keep shallow-rooted plants alive.

Last night's rain (all of 2mm) is the first we've had since 3mm on 2nd August. Before that, the last rainfall of more than 1mm was on July 14th, so we've had 5mm in the last month.

Looking ahead, there's not much shown on GEFS for the London gridpoint, so we'll have to see what turns up next Tuesday.

Here in South Wales it's definitely been a wet (though not overly so) month with no sign of drought whatsoever. 

The SouthEast climate really is a much more pleasant one (barring the summer heat) than the rest of the UK.

I'd far rather have the climate we used to have - snow on the ground wasn't uncommon in winter, where seeing large areas of yellowed grass was a rarity, when you could count on rain even though the summer... and where 30C was noteworthy, not expected. It seems that down here we've moved southeast a couple of hundred miles compared to the 80s. Maybe in another 30 years we'll finally have that 80s-style Mediterranean climate!

The flipside is that our current climate is heading your way, slowly but inexorably. "You don't know what you've got 'til it's gone", as the saying goes!

EDIT: Confirmed. We now have a warmer climate here in SE England than Paris had in 1961-90. Scary, huh?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Paris 

(Go down to the 61-90 airport section).

Yes, my drought comment worked as usual. Same here with just 4.5mm but has filled the water butts. Went outside at midnight just to get that refreshing smell of rain after a long dusty spell. I was on WOW but will have to check to see if I'm still sending. I am to Wunderground.

Yep, pretty much the same here though id get 4.5mm last night.

Scary? Exciting.