Meanwhile, interesting to see how warm the waters near Eastern Canada are relative to the average ......

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/anomaly/ 

Yes, 20s now appearing in the Thames Estuary, and even a small area of the Bristol Channel!

As for the waters off Canada, the theory would be that it would encourage deep lows there should it persist into autumn... but whether that would mean they'd burn themselves out before making it here remains to be seen! It would also potentially extend the life of tropical storms moving into the area in the next couple of months...

We are nearer to the cold Lows spawning to the north-west so average temperatures (18-19 C by day, 11-12 C by night). Showery rain at times from the SW with average sunshine, is my take on it.

Hopefully we will get some ridging from the SW around mid-month

I'm off to the Algarve for 3 weeks in September for my guaranteed sunshine and warmth

GFS Op - LP S of Iceland stays in place to Thu 9th, something of a trough extending S-wards Tue 6th but in general pressure remaining fairly high over S England, more so than shown yesterday. Apart from shallow LP brushing N Scotland Sat 10th pressure then rises from SW and dominates Britain through to end of run Sat 17th; perhaps some thundery LP from the S by then. (Note the contrast with other models including other outputs from GFS itself)

ECM - starts out like GFS though pressure not as high over England. Then the LP Sat 10th deepens slightly and runs SE bringing in cooler NW-lies with HP staying out on the Atlantic. Yesterday's forecasts involving an ex-hurricane boosting N Atlantic circulation have been over-written.

GEM - similar to ECM; the LP Sat 10th not only persists but becomes a large area over most of Britain

GEFS -  In the S, becoming cooler, a small bump of warmth around Mon 5th, then agreement between ens members fails with the mean slowly dropping to below norm. Note the contrast with the Op run; that is a a conspicuous warm outlier from the bunch. Very little rain after today's storms until appearing in some runs after Tue 13th. In the N similar temp profile though mean less buoyed up by a warm op run, rain beginning around Tue 6th, persisting in small amounts but becoming heavier from about 13th. 

Is your Devon trip next week Saint? And are you north, south or somewhere in the middle of the county? It's looking like you'll get some decent weather even if not especially warm.

I find that the south coast often has a micro-climate with very different weather from a few miles inland. Back in June 2021 we stayed in Brixham for a week. The forecast was awful but it actually turned out decent with plenty of dry sunny weather. For most of the week I was able to look inland to see dark clouds and heavy showers while we enjoyed the sun! 

It's next week and South Hams.

The MO runs have been remarkably consistent the last 2/3 days. For the south coast (extending northwards to varying extent along), looks like Sat & Sun under the NE tip of the ridging AH. The low spins a front across the southern half of the UK on Monday, then the AH ridging back in.

It's not perfect, but temps at around 21c Sat/Sun and 19-20c Tue-Fri will have to do. 

It has been pretty good down here for a month or so excepting a few cloudy/rainy days and the sea has now warmed considerably. Don't forget to take a trip over to the ''Dark Side'' we call Brixham! 

Thanks 👍😄

GFS Op - Up to next weekend, the pattern is for a persistent LP between Scotland and Iceland with W-lies predominating; unsettled in Scotland, with occasionally a trough reaching further S e.g. Tue 6th but HP just about hanging on for the S Coast. Then it's GFS' turn to bring in ex-hurricane Debby (previously only shown on ECM), moving slowly N-wards off the US coast on Tue 6th but from Sun 11th making a rapid dash across the Atlantic to arrive in C Scotland 1000mb Tue 13th. Pressure then rises for the rest of that week but gives way to slack LP by Sun 18th.

ECM - like GFS to Sun 11th but keeps the ex-hurricane over Newfoundland and writes in a ridge of HP for Britain that weekend

GEM - Intermediate between GFS and ECM, running Debby to the N of Scotland

GEFS - in the S, temps up and down either side of norm until Sun 11th, then the mean settles to cooler with (as yesterday) the op as a warm outlier. Almost no rain for a week, then small amounts in some ens members, a few sharp peaks in the SW. In Scotland and N England, temp profile similar but with less optimism from the op run, rain in modest amounts in most runs at most times.

Yes, GFS and ECM bring heat back in different guises. GFS Ops run is very interesting with an ex-hurricane appearing to encourage high pressure to develop over the UK in its wake. Not convinced by that one yet! But my phone app is showing low to mid-20s for next week in my locality which is fine by me when I'm working!

Let see as I think August will be the best month in term of warmth and any  hurricane appear will prevent nasty northern blocking or wasted HP sitting in the Atlantic.  Apps always undercook temps and over reacting daily overcast clouds symbols. 

Good don’t want Autumn for a long while as we just exited year long Autumn few weeks ago. 

There are also hints of Autumn. Granted it's at FI 240 hrs range in GFS so cannot be treated as an actual forecast, but has been popping up in a few runs lately.

😍😍😍

GFS Op - Until Sat 10th, LP between Scotland and Iceland extending its influence almost down to S Britain. Then LP develops in Biscay and runs irregularly N-wards across Britain, persisting and  reinforced by more LP from Atlantic possibly resulting from ex-hurricane Debby in a rather disorganised way, ending up N Norway Sat 17th. Brief HP before a new trough from Iceland Mon 19th.

ECM - agrees to Sat 10th but then Icelandic LP moves N-wards and allows a broad W-ly flow with no contribution from Biscay. By Tue 13th pressure is dropping over Britain with a mid-Atlantic trough moving in from the west, backed up by Debby which is more strongly developed near Nova Scotia than shown by GFS.

GEM - rather like ECM but with no sign of Debby

GEFS - temps up and down either side of norm until Sat 10th, then fair agreement on the cool side of norm through to Mon 19th (yesterday's Op run warmth has gone), Rain in the S likely to start Fri 9th and continue in moderate amounts; in Scotland and NW England the rain starts earlier, around Mon 5th, and is somewhat heavier

And after the weekend? Back to square one.

WX temps - still the same gradation from cool/cold in the far N Atlantic to warm/hot in the Mediterranean, with Britain between the two, cool in the NW, passably warm in the SE - but less general cooling in NW Europe than shown yesterday in week 2, and equally less warming in the E Baltic. Very hot in Spain week 1 and in SE Europe week 2. Rain in week 1 for Scotland and Scandinavia, becoming more extensive and moving SE to affect most of NW Europe week 2, but less so than yesterday.

GFS Op - for most of this week LP N/NW of Scotland and HP close to S England with W-lies for all, and fronts moving across, more active in the N. Pressure dropping to the SW Sat 10th, at first interacting with continental LP, later becoming the first of a series moving E into Britain before moving away NE-wards (3 separate events, Tue 13th 990mb Bristol Channel, Thu 15th 980mb E Ireland, Mon 19th 1000mb C Scotland - the last of these could incorporate remnants of Debby)

ECM - differs from GFS after Sat 10th, on that date no more than a kink in the isobars, but Debby then puts a lot of energy into the N Atlantic producing deep depression 965mb SW of Iceland with moderately high pressure for UK throughout and brisk W-lies later

GEM - noticeably unlike the above, pressure rises across Britain generally from Thu 8th and barring slight dents from ex-Debby Mon 12th 1005mb Hebrides and continental LP Tue 13th SE England pressure remains high throughout, eventually becoming centred over Scotland.

GEFS -in the S, warm around Mon 6th and Sat 10th, the degree of the warmth in the latter very variable as between ens members; cooler (a degree or two below norm) between and after these dates, small amounts of rain in many ens members from Sat 10th onwards. In the N, only the first warm episode, otherwise near or a little below norm in most ens members, rain in moderate amounts on most days, perhaps a brief dry slot around Tue 7th, always heavier in NW