Grindavik is only 25km from Keflavik, Iceland's International Airport, so I expect the authorities are watching closely.

Nevertheless, I don't think ash is expected unless/until the lava comes into contact with water, either as sea water or ice, which would generate the explosive activity seen at Eyjafjallajokull.

Grindavik is only 25km from Keflavik, Iceland's International Airport, so I expect the authorities are watching closely.

Nevertheless, I don't think ash is expected unless/until the lava comes into contact with water, either as sea water or ice, which would generate the explosive activity seen at Eyjafjallajokull.

The eruption of Laki is one of history's great untold natural disasters. The eruption, spewing out a poisionous fog, lasted for eight months, but its effects lingered across Europe for years, causing the death of people as far away as the Nile, and creating famine that may have triggered the French revolution. Island on Fire is the story not only of a volcano but also of the people whose lives it changed, such as the pastor Jon Steingrimsson, who witnessed and recorded the events in Iceland. It is the story, too, of modern volcanology, and looks at how events might work out should Laki erupt again in our time.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Island-Fire-extraordinary-volcano-eighteenth-century/dp/1781250049 

A great read if you haven't already done so and one I'll be re reading.

Nick 

Got a couple of decent winters out of it, though 😉

Ah the big chill almost forgot that. TWO on the trot too. Brian would be happy with the extra footfall.

You may very well be right. I guess we will find out in the next few hours (or sooner).

Actually looking at the data the seismic activity seems to be a in a location distinct from the recent activity, so who knows!

Looks to have been false hope... Perhaps as it is close to the eruption site it's to do with the increasing ground deformation still going on? 

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Yes, I suspect the ongoing inflation to the west has had a knock on effect. I would still think an eruption is likely the coming days or weeks.

Ground uplift under the Svartsengi powerplant is still ongoing, which leads to a greater chance of the pressure building up to levels that trigger an eruption particularly as there's (presumably) a conduit of lower resistance there now following the first magma run and dyke formation. There's also the low chance of Grimsvotn erupting given the uptick in activity there although that's a low chance from what I've read (probably a good thing as most of that volcano's eruptions are explosive due to where it's situated).  

All in all interesting from where I'm sitting but rather more concerning for those affected. It's also a shame to see people are cancelling trips to Iceland due to the current unrest. In terms of the peninsula, unless something erupts around the coast I don't think the chances of an ash rich eruption are high and I'd have thought there's plenty more interesting things to do in Iceland beyond sitting in the Blue Lagoon!

Edit: If anyone is checking the Iceland stuff out and hasn't seen it:-

https://vafri.is/quake/#close 

Is a really useful website - shows earthquakes and if you use the 'kort' dropdown and 'gps maelar' you can see the GPS stations and click on them to check out movement and uplift. Svartsengi being the one closest to the magma intrusion. (Shows as a little red square, easier to click on them if you zoom right in). 

Worryingly much of the activity is now close to Grindavik.

Updated 14 January at 06:15 UTC

At around 03:00 UTC today, an intense series of earthquakes began at the Sundhnúksgígar crater row. 

At the time of publication, over 200 earthquakes have been measured in the area, and the seismicity has moved towards the town of Grindavík. 

So far, the largest recorded earthquake is 3.5 in magnitude, and it was measured at 04:07 UTC at Hagafell. 

https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/ 

Yes unfortunately it is dangerously close.

It is apparently north of Sýlingarfell suggesting it is a bit further away from Grindavik.