The Weather Outlook

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Chunky Pea
26 October 2023 16:49:06
According to 'Just Icelandic' (youtuber) there was over 1000 small tremors recorded in the Reykjanes Peninsula region over the last couple of days. May not necessarily indicate that another eruption is forthcoming soon, but does suggest that magma is on the move and is building up under the region once again. 
East Galway, Ireland.
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
Roger P, 12-Oct-2022
Chunky Pea
03 November 2023 19:11:25
Magma intrusion appears to be stepping up a notch the last few days according to Just Icelandic, and more to the west of previous eruptions. Eruptive potential itself seems quite low but it would be interesting if we did see a winter eruption in the region. 
East Galway, Ireland.
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
Roger P, 12-Oct-2022
doctormog
03 November 2023 19:33:35

Magma intrusion appears to be stepping up a notch the last few days according to Just Icelandic, and more to the west of previous eruptions. Eruptive potential itself seems quite low but it would be interesting if we did see a winter eruption in the region. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



The IMO has a series of updates here: https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/a-seismic-swarm-started-north-of-grindavik-last-night  
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+4
ozone_aurora
10 November 2023 17:56:28
On the other side of the world, in the NW Pacific, a new island has been born just off the coast of Iwo Jima.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-asia-67374295 .
+1
doctormog
10 November 2023 18:03:57

On the other side of the world, in the NW Pacific, a new island has been born just off the coast of Iwo Jima.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-asia-67374295 .

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 



Nice!

Back on the topic of Iceland, it looks like a major series of quakes is ongoing: https://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/  

As ever VolcanoCafe will be on the ball. It looks like the town of Grindavik may be in the firing line this time and an eruption looks highly likely and probably soon.

https://www.volcanocafe.org/thorbjorn-on-the-brink/  
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
Zubzero
10 November 2023 21:02:08

Nice!

Back on the topic of Iceland, it looks like a major series of quakes is ongoing: https://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/  

As ever VolcanoCafe will be on the ball. It looks like the town of Grindavik may be in the firing line this time and an eruption looks highly likely and probably soon.

https://www.volcanocafe.org/thorbjorn-on-the-brink/  

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



That's the most 3+ magnitudes I have seen on there for a long time if ever. That's some swarm 
picturesareme
11 November 2023 00:27:15
Town of Grindavik is being evacuated as it's likely a dike has formed underneath it tonight. 
doctormog
11 November 2023 07:46:41

Town of Grindavik is being evacuated as it's likely a dike has formed underneath it tonight. 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



This update was issued by the IMO lady night at 11:30 pm:

”Significant changes have occurred in the seismic activity measured near Sundhnjúkagígar north of Grindavík and deformation observed in the Reykjanes Peninsula this afternoon. The seismic activity has moved south towards Grindavík. Based on how the seismic activity has evolved since 6 PM today, along with results from GPS measurements, there is a likelihood that a magma intrusion has extended beneath Grindavík. In light of this outcome, the police chief in Suðurnes, in cooperation with the Civil Protection Authorities, has decided to evacuate Grindavík. An emergency level of civil protection is now in effect. This is not an emergency evacuation. Residents of Grindavík are advised to proceed with caution. 

At this stage, it is not possible to determine exactly whether and where magma might reach the surface. There are indications that a considerable amount of magma is moving in an area extending from Sundhnjúkagígum in the north towards Grindavík. The amount of magma involved is significantly more than what was observed in the largest magma intrusions associated with the eruptions at Fagradalsfjall. Further data is being collected to calculate models that provide a more accurate picture of the magma intrusion. It is currently not possible to say when this work will be completed.”

https://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/reykjanespeninsula/  
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
doctormog
11 November 2023 12:35:05
I see that the GPS measurements at Grinkavik show that it has dropped by over 90cm in the last 2 or 3 days! 

UserPostedImage 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
12 November 2023 09:38:11
https://watchers.news/2023/11/11/high-risk-of-eruption-near-grindavik-15-km-long-magma-intrusion-identified-northwest-of-town-iceland/ 
article dated 11/11/2023 at 1830 hrs
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
lanky
12 November 2023 12:21:19

https://watchers.news/2023/11/11/high-risk-of-eruption-near-grindavik-15-km-long-magma-intrusion-identified-northwest-of-town-iceland/ 
article dated 11/11/2023 at 1830 hrs

Originally Posted by: DEW 



I was in that area in 2015 having a nice warm dip in the Blue Lagoon (but bloody cold when you got out)

You can see that this area is very volcanic from the amount of lava around the lagoon from previous eruptions and from the fact that the Geothermal power station is right next door

Many local people use the lagoon as well as tourists as the high silica concentration (which they grab up from the lake bed and smear all over themselves) is meant to be very health-giving

UserPostedImage
Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Roger Parsons
12 November 2023 13:38:49

I was in that area in 2015 having a nice warm dip in the Blue Lagoon (but bloody cold when you got out)
You can see that this area is very volcanic from the amount of lava around the lagoon from previous eruptions and from the fact that the Geothermal power station is right next door
Many local people use the lagoon as well as tourists as the high silica concentration (which they grab up from the lake bed and smear all over themselves) is meant to be very health-giving

Originally Posted by: lanky 

You just can't get the walrus fat these days, lanky.  😁 I never went to the Blue Lagoon but had some welcome dips in the underground hot springs at Myvatn in the 69 and 72. I'm told they have got a tad too hot for comfort in recent years - is that true?

Moving on...
"Iceland has declared a state of emergency after a series of earthquakes.
Authorities have ordered thousands of people living in the southwestern town of Grindavík to leave as a precaution.
The Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) said there was a considerable risk of an eruption."

Iceland volcano: Emergency declared over volcano Fagradalsfjall eruption concerns
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67387827 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
13 November 2023 06:58:32

You just can't get the walrus fat these days, lanky.  😁 I never went to the Blue Lagoon but had some welcome dips in the underground hot springs at Myvatn in the 69 and 72. I'm told they have got a tad too hot for comfort in recent years - is that true?

Moving on...
"Iceland has declared a state of emergency after a series of earthquakes.
Authorities have ordered thousands of people living in the southwestern town of Grindavík to leave as a precaution.
The Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) said there was a considerable risk of an eruption."

Iceland volcano: Emergency declared over volcano Fagradalsfjall eruption concerns
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67387827 

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 



I went a few years after you Roger and missed both hot springs though I saw people with towels wrapped around their waists heading to the one in the north. Few tourists in those days. The hydrogen sulphide though from the water in Reykjavik convinced me (at first) that people had a rich diet of beans and fish. Until I realised where the smell originated.  It was only an issue for me around Reykjavik though. Water in other places was pure. 

I only relatively recently heard about this goldfish pool too although I did go to Husavik. Perhaps it hadn't been stocked back then?
https://guidetoiceland.is/travel-iceland/drive/geothermal-goldfish-pond-1 
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
nsrobins
13 November 2023 16:42:44
The widening of the crack that has appeared and extending through the middle of Grindavik has all the hallmarks of a precursor to a magma build-up and I suspect an eruption is imminent.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/vulkane.net/permalink/6890575840980530/ 
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
picturesareme
13 November 2023 22:27:43

The widening of the crack that has appeared and extending through the middle of Grindavik has all the hallmarks of a precursor to a magma build-up and I suspect an eruption is imminent.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/vulkane.net/permalink/6890575840980530/ 
 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



I've just seen a video shared by RUV in Instagram which showed an image of Grinkavik (the land it was built on) from the 1950's that had a crack in the same area. It would appear that it was filled in during the construction of the town. 

https://www.instagram.com/reel/Czmj93fug10/?igshid=dG1nd3FvNmhyMHZl 
 
Saint Snow
14 November 2023 08:54:50
Icelandic authorities now thinking it'll be far less severe than initially feared.

No 1783 for sure

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Roger Parsons
14 November 2023 09:09:01

Icelandic authorities now thinking it'll be far less severe than initially feared.

No 1783 for sure

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Always better to have it that way round. 😁
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Saint Snow
14 November 2023 09:42:33

Always better to have it that way round. 😁

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 




Well summer 1783 was hot and sunny, whilst winter 1783/4 was a corker with persistent cold and plenty of snow.

What's not to like? 😋

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
The Beast from the East
14 November 2023 09:56:21

Icelandic authorities now thinking it'll be far less severe than initially feared.

No 1783 for sure

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Booorring!
Next please

 
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
doctormog
14 November 2023 13:12:13
It's probably a bit less boring if it erupts under your house I guess.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
The Beast from the East
15 November 2023 03:08:24

It's probably a bit less boring if it erupts under your house I guess.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



You must be such fun at parties!

Extreme events are exciting, just human nature and when such an event turns out to be a non event, then of course its disappointing unless as you say you are directly impacted. 

I was very grateful that Storm Ciaran went south for example
 
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
15 November 2023 14:13:31

Icelandic authorities now thinking it'll be far less severe than initially feared.

No 1783 for sure

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Perhaps not but it could last for many centuries.
Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula is now in a new era of volcanic eruptions that will last for up to 500 years, and the building magma beneath Sundhnúkur and Grindavík is part of this millenia-long cycle.
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/volcanos/times-finally-up-impending-iceland-eruption-is-part-of-centuries-long-volcanic-pulse 

 
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
doctormog
15 November 2023 18:10:02

You must be such fun at parties!

Extreme events are exciting, just human nature and when such an event turns out to be a non event, then of course its disappointing unless as you say you are directly impacted. 

I was very grateful that Storm Ciaran went south for example
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 




Thanks! Then again based on your last line, so must you.

Anyway back to the current potential eruption, yes the whole cycle could last for many many years I believe with three eruptions in the system already having occurred since 2021 (around Fagradalsfjall). The suggestion is that more magma has been fed into the system this time round so the eruption may be bigger or longer. However as it is a rifting event caused by a sill-type intrusion then it will be of a similar nature to these previous eruptions perhaps a bit more effusive and lasting a bit longer, but who knows. It may get a little bit more explosive if the vent opens just offshore. Either way it’s not great news for the people of Grindavík.

 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 November 2023 17:23:16
Meanwhile out in Papua New Guinea we have an ash cloud to 50,000 feet and a tsunami watch.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/japan-weather-agency-papua-new-guinea-volcano-erupted-105026151 
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Roger Parsons
26 November 2023 10:17:41
Mount Etna: enjoy...
Volcano sprays lava into Sicily's night sky
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-67529861 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1

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