The Weather Outlook

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Gooner
18 December 2021 22:37:00

Chart image

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Some event 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



ballamar
18 December 2021 22:37:29

Be buried if this came off 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

bring if forward by 24 hours would be nice

Hippydave
18 December 2021 22:40:09

Was just looking at the precip type charts and thinking if something close to that happens it could be a pretty snowy Xmas day for some folks 

Leaving aside an FI precip chart it's nice the see some consistency and the setup looks good up to T225


Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

Gooner
18 December 2021 22:41:55

 

bring if forward by 24 hours would be nice

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

It would but I would settle for what the GFS is currently showing 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gooner
18 December 2021 22:43:32

Good looking chart 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



ballamar
18 December 2021 22:44:13
www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_240_1.png

Crazily good setup

squish
18 December 2021 22:46:49
Quite stunning 18z
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Gandalf The White
18 December 2021 22:48:55

Some extraordinarily low temperatures as well.

These are the maxima on Tuesday, over deep snow cover. Might need to book a plumber….


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Polar Low
18 December 2021 22:53:27

Very rare to see that on a chart let alone in real life.

straight from the AC

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=276&mode=0&carte=1

Taylor1740
18 December 2021 22:54:44

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_240_1.png
Crazily good setup

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Could be some very low overnight temperatures in that setup, GFS 2m data was showing some -14c over Central- Southern England. If we had snow cover before then also, then could be some very low minimums recorded, the CET could take a hammering.


NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Gandalf The White
18 December 2021 22:56:33

 

bring if forward by 24 hours would be nice

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

For here the snow starts during the evening on Christmas Day and only dies out around midday on Monday, ie about 36 hours of continuous snow. We end up with 13cm according to this run, but given our elevation it will be a little more here. Add in a brisk easterly and the lane might be covered by snow drifts; the lane is about a metre or two below the level of the fields on the eastern side….


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



ballamar
18 December 2021 22:57:09
Not sure of the Welsh all time low but that could be under threat with this run
ballamar
18 December 2021 22:57:52

 

For here the snow starts during the evening on Christmas Day and only dies out around midday on Monday, ie about 36 hours of continuous snow. We end up with 13cm according to this run, but given our elevation it will be a little more here. Add in a brisk easterly and the lane might be covered by snow drifts; the lane is about a metre or two below the level of the fields on the eastern side….

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

excellent best of luck hope it comes off

doctormog
18 December 2021 22:58:50

 

Could be some very low overnight temperatures in that setup, GFS 2m data was showing some -14c over Central- Southern England. If we had snow cover before then also, then could be some very low minimums recorded, the CET could take a hammering.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

Not what you were expecting from this op run?

Looks a bit chilly.


Taylor1740
18 December 2021 23:02:52

 

Not what you were expecting from this op run?

Looks a bit chilly.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Need to see how the ensembles look but even so it's still too far away to really have confidence in it.


NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Gooner
18 December 2021 23:03:48

 

For here the snow starts during the evening on Christmas Day and only dies out around midday on Monday, ie about 36 hours of continuous snow. We end up with 13cm according to this run, but given our elevation it will be a little more here. Add in a brisk easterly and the lane might be covered by snow drifts; the lane is about a metre or two below the level of the fields on the eastern side….

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

XC Weather has given me just under 40cm 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



doctormog
18 December 2021 23:06:43

 

Need to see how the ensembles look but even so it's still too far away to really have confidence in it.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

Yes, but I was referring to the fact you were not expecting this to be a cold operational run (and the ensembles to shift with it).

Cold or mild all the usual caveats always apply at this range, but if anything, this run strengthens the recent trend.


Polar Low
18 December 2021 23:09:22
Gandalf The White
18 December 2021 23:10:48

What chance the Op is a mild outlier…..?


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Gooner
18 December 2021 23:11:46

Very wintery potential uptick on the table

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=174

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Not bad at all 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



some faraway beach
18 December 2021 23:17:30

Got that yellow around Iceland, just where Retron was saying we need it. This would go on and on!

 


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.

Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.

Tom Oxon
18 December 2021 23:19:32
I'm actually hoping for a downgrade, I'm due to visit my parents with my family in the countryside west of Banbury and snowmageddon on Boxing day doesn't assist 😞
S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
Narnia
18 December 2021 23:22:31

It will be all change in the morning! 🤣🤣

Polar Low
18 December 2021 23:24:43
Gooner
18 December 2021 23:31:41

I'm actually hoping for a downgrade, I'm due to visit my parents with my family in the countryside west of Banbury and snowmageddon on Boxing day doesn't assist :(

Originally Posted by: Tom Oxon 

Wash your mouth out 

Borrow a tractor 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



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