The Weather Outlook

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Polar Low
06 August 2020 17:06:57

Very hot Ukmo at also around that time 11th a little to go but encouraging signal

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1007

 

 

 

Rob K
06 August 2020 17:11:01

More gobsmacking is that Arome appears to have a 27C isotherm or greater over Brighton right through until 6am by which time the temperature is rising again!

This is as cold as it gets: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/aromezoom.php?mode=41&x=4821.21&y=2757.98&ech=41&zoom=4

Tiny 27C ring is there.

First 80F minimum? No official weather station down there though...


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

NDunwell
06 August 2020 17:11:37

Long time follower of the TWO forum over 10 years but first time poster.

Looking forward to the next few days and seeing how hot we get. I'm a big coldie but also love the heat and experiencing weather extremes and feel lucky to have experienced some of the UK's hottest days living in this part of the UK.

Last Friday was remarkable but it really didn't feel like one of the hottest days on record. In fact I've felt as sticky today at 28/29C as I did in last week's 37C.

Personally I think we won't get any new heat records but will love experiencing a run of 30+ days, maybe even 35+ days...although i know its not great for everyone and has health implications for many. Stay safe all and enjoy if you can 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Nick

Ruislip (2 miles from the Northolt recording station)

superteacher
06 August 2020 17:19:08
What are the dew points like tomorrow compared to last Friday?
Rob K
06 August 2020 17:23:17

What are the dew points like tomorrow compared to last Friday?

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

Actually tomorrow they look more or less similar to last Friday in London, high single figures. But up to 19C not very much further to the north and west.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/aromezoom.php?mode=118&x=384&y=384&ech=29&zoom=0

 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Polar Low
06 August 2020 17:26:07

Hints now from 37c Arpege that as ukmo and  06z gfs ens suggest we could be on the brink of history early next week

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=12&charthour=98&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=2m%20temp%20C

 

Retron
06 August 2020 17:27:55

I am looking at the excellent site weather.us

Arome has a very clear 38C shown.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

So it does! Posted here for posterity, 2 PM on Friday from Arome (it's also there on the 3 PM chart):


Leysdown, north Kent
Heavy Weather 2013
06 August 2020 17:33:46
Rob K, you’ll need to have you hourly checker link ready for tomorrow.

Didn’t think we would be needing again so soon.


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Rob K
06 August 2020 17:38:19

 

So it does! Posted here for posterity, 2 PM on Friday from Arome (it's also there on the 3 PM chart):

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Yes that little ring was also visible on the Meteociel link, but without a label.

 

But the 27C minimum temp is even more remarkable, I think!

 

Incidentally Heathrow was still getting hotter at 6pm, as was Northolt and London City.

Looks like they will just fall short of 30C though.

Edit - Kew Gardens has a highest hourly reading of 29.6C so may have just scraped 30C today.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
06 August 2020 17:48:17

 

Yes that little ring was also visible on the Meteociel link, but without a label.

 

But the 27C minimum temp is even more remarkable, I think!

 

Incidentally Heathrow was still getting hotter at 6pm, as was Northolt and London City.

Looks like they will just fall short of 30C today though.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

 

Kew was 29.6c at 4pm so it may have reached 30c

 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
superteacher
06 August 2020 17:59:05
Minima of 27? Good lord . . .
Jiries
06 August 2020 18:01:31

More gobsmacking is that Arome appears to have a 27C isotherm or greater over Brighton right through until 6am by which time the temperature is rising again!

This is as cold as it gets: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/aromezoom.php?mode=41&x=4821.21&y=2757.98&ech=41&zoom=4

Tiny 27C ring is there.

First 80F minimum? No official weather station down there though...

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Looking at it and I can see 24C here as they nearest they put is New Arley and 24C next to it.  

superteacher
06 August 2020 18:02:21
Met Office heatwave alerts may have been issued, but why isn’t this being reported on the news?
Chidog
06 August 2020 18:03:02

More gobsmacking is that Arome appears to have a 27C isotherm or greater over Brighton right through until 6am by which time the temperature is rising again!

This is as cold as it gets: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/aromezoom.php?mode=41&x=4821.21&y=2757.98&ech=41&zoom=4

Tiny 27C ring is there.

First 80F minimum? No official weather station down there though...

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Shoreham?

Retron
06 August 2020 18:05:17

I think he is mistaken there. In his page for 1976 he says that there were five 35C+ days in the whole heatwave, but they weren't consecutive.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I think you're right! The Met Office helpfully tweeted this earlier:

Spells of 35C or 36C for 3 or more days in a row doesn't happen very often:

🗓️ 26-28 June 1976
🗓️ 1-3 July 1976
🗓️ 2-4 Aug 1990

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1291359210752675841

 


Leysdown, north Kent
Jiries
06 August 2020 18:07:00

 

Yes that little ring was also visible on the Meteociel link, but without a label.

 

But the 27C minimum temp is even more remarkable, I think!

 

Incidentally Heathrow was still getting hotter at 6pm, as was Northolt and London City.

Looks like they will just fall short of 30C though.

Edit - Kew Gardens has a highest hourly reading of 29.6C so may have just scraped 30C today.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I am sure it would had reached 32-33C in Heathrow today and here 30C if was sunny because when I walk to the post office I can feel the warmth was ready but blocked by the clouds that formed unexpected at 7.30am this morning.  Now stupid clearing skies because is 7pm and no point excited with it as soon it will get dark in 2 hours time.

Heavy Weather 2013
06 August 2020 18:07:35

Met Office heatwave alerts may have been issued, but why isn’t this being reported on the news?

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

I know there is a Level 3 warning. But I’m actually shocked they haven’t issued a Level 4


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
06 August 2020 18:11:38
Luton Airport peaked at 18.50 with 28C. Just shows how the air is warming by the hour.
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Jiries
06 August 2020 18:12:05

Met Office heatwave alerts may have been issued, but why isn’t this being reported on the news?

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

Same last week 37.8C 100F did not made it well shown headline because they obsessed with COVID  I know we having COVID but please sometimes shut up about it and give us some much needed different news updates.   Also should had been well mentioned because never in the UK climate capable of 30C to 38C in a day which you only see that in the States or Europe, even Cyprus never able to jump from 30C to 38C.  If was 40C lsat week I am sure COVID will be once again on headlines.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
06 August 2020 18:51:45
So, first day of the heatwave. 3 places got to a rounded 30C. Northolt, St J’s P and Heathrow. I dearly hope at least one of them (or another manual station) managed over 30.0C.

How many 30+ days can we string together? Models imply anything from 6 to 9.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
tierradelfuego
06 August 2020 19:07:47
From an Very IMBY perspective, I'm not sure the day time temps will be that record breaking, 34c perhaps. Still incredibly warm and if we get 7 days above 30 probably a 1st or maybe 2nd after '76. For me it's the nighttime temps that look record breaking perhaps, and as much as I don't like a hot night (apart from a birthday or anniversary of course) we live in a very rural location in Southern England and my max min temp is only 17.9c, I'm sure a few would find that remarkable if living in a city centre like Portsmouth of course. Be nice to break a record again this year, the diurnal went last week at >21c so a good year perhaps for records.
Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

Stormchaser
06 August 2020 19:25:47

I know there is a Level 3 warning. But I’m actually shocked they haven’t issued a Level 4

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

I have a feeling a Level 4 is an 'in the event' trigger, i.e. it has to be extreme at the same of being issued. I think because of the emergency response it then initiates from governmental bodies and the military. In theory they should be on standby already.

 

Personally, I'm braced for an unprecedented run of hot weather here. My location is close enough to the south coast that the sea breeze usually comes in to put a lid on temps by early afternoon. This may happen to some extent tomorrow, though with a tilt to the SE that may mean some sheltering by the Isle of Wight, but Sat-Sun and perhaps Mon, there looks to be enough of a NE wind to counteract the sea breeze effect.

In fact, it may be just the right about to create a swathe of very light winds a little inland of the coast, leading to particularly hot conditions. I'd not be surprised to see my local record of 34.3°C, set 3rd & 4th August 1990, challenged at least once.

Long-term residents may be caught out by the unusual combination of hot air and a land breeze.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

06 August 2020 20:01:56

Chris Fawkes on BBC News saying 36C max tomorrow with a chance it can go higher. Given what happened last week I think another 37C is very likely if we keep sunny skies.

Heavy Weather 2013
06 August 2020 20:06:38
I think we will get the fourth hottest day ever recorded tomorrow.
Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Heavy Weather 2013
06 August 2020 20:37:05

MetOffice app now has a cheeky 37C for Saturday.

Still a 36C for tomorrow, though I have a feeling that will change also overnight to 37C also


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

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