Where's JB when you need him....this could run and run 

Indeed , (and I didn’t even mention poles ). Sorry I will stop now.

---

Recreational flying can resume in England under the relaxation of lockdown rules.

Only solo flights, or those where everyone is from the same household are allowed.

 

and that doesn't yet include recent relaxes to the lockdown since Sunday so expect it to keep rising.

Yes the slight rise today is from care homes and hospitals, we won't see the effect of the relaxation of lockdown for a couple of weeks at least. And what happens with that will be crucial. It almost seems that there's a feeling that it's all over but unless I'm missing something if only 5 -10% of the country have had the virus what is going to stop it spreading through the other 90+% when we all return to work?

I appreciate continuing with social distancing will have an effect but when you see images of people crowded onto tubes and buses I do wonder how we are going to stop a rise in cases?

I also think that if schools are going back we need a much more coherent plan of how it is going to work, there are just so many unknown factors about the virus. 

Recreational flying can resume in England under the relaxation of lockdown rules.

Only solo flights, or those where everyone is from the same household are allowed.

More racket in the countryside then. What is it about humans and not liking quiet?

---

Matt Hancock spending a lot of time at the briefing explaining what a brilliant job the Government has done in Care Homes. 2/3 not infected at all. How early they tackled the problem as they knew back in February that they were the most vulnerable, how quickly they got the testing and the protective equipment. Fantastic we did so well. No need to apology for any mistakes like they did in Sweden.

---

 

Yes the slight rise today is from care homes and hospitals, we won't see the effect of the relaxation of lockdown for a couple of weeks at least. And what happens with that will be crucial. It almost seems that there's a feeling that it's all over but unless I'm missing something if only 5 -10% of the country have had the virus what is going to stop it spreading through the other 90+% when we all return to work?

I appreciate continuing with social distancing will have an effect but when you see images of people crowded onto tubes and buses I do wonder how we are going to stop a rise in cases?

I also think that if schools are going back we need a much more coherent plan of how it is going to work, there are just so many unknown factors about the virus. 

You've gone off the idea of herd immunity then? People want to be treated like adults (?) but a fair % of us behave like children. I mean, wtf is the problem with wearing a mask in public - it clearly (if we all do it) reduces spread. But, nope, for a lot of us 'adults' its all too difficult to do or an infringement of our rights. Idiots!

I bet the damned Spikers are against masks too

---

Daily slides

R number

Mobility with survey

Testing and new cases

Hospital admissions

People in hospital

All settings deaths with rolling 7-day average

​​​​​​​

.... spin, spin. Jennie Harries " graph shows hospital admissions continuing on a downward trend". When the last three points on the graph she was talking about were up !

---

.... spin, spin. Jennie Harries " graph shows hospital admissions continuing on a downward trend". When the last three points on the graph she was talking about were up !

Haven't seen it, but strangely Dr Jennie Harries, whenever she appears at Daily briefings comes across as a pretty straightforward and thorough "authority" within her profession.  Hardly a spinner, just my observation of course, but as an expert in her field I'm sure you could give her a lesson or two. 

---

But that wouldn't be manifested in a rise in the R rate so quickly would it?

PS! Out of interest exactly how do you "shag a flag"

 

---

 

Yes I was and am asking MM to put a value on life. I ask because (revealingly?) he wont do that, and because it is indeed a very, very, very  difficult question. My answer is lockdown was better than the alternatives and that I feel deeply uncomfortable when people are told they have to take the risk of getting this virus.

I'm 62, I work in a school - sometimes with student, but mostly outdoors. What risk should I be made to take? That is the question I ask MM but in a different form. I guess my risk is, I dunno, if I catch it, 1-3% of dying, if people start spreading it my risk of catching it will rise from close to negligible now to ...I don't know! But, MM wants us to go back to work - what risk of losing my life does he think I should take? 2%, 5%, 10%, 25%? I doubt he'll answer. What risk would he take (he wont say).

I'll also say I get the argument I'm 'getting paid to do nothing' (though most people is school are working to some extent - I will be tomorrow if in isolation). Fwiw, I've been careful enough that I, perhaps, could manage without work but I also enjoy my job and wouldn't like to lose it. It's any coercion I don't like and it's (that damn question again) how much risk is it fair to ask people to take???????

Fwiw I don't think the lockdown is causing death so much as people's fear of going to the hospital and catching C19 is.

Fair enough and thanks for explaining.

My wife is a primary school teacher so I get to see her side of things on that rather than just reading the media rubbish - before they closed the schools there was a comment/view (government or media, can't remember which) that school teachers weren't at risk of the disease as children had next to no risk of dying, which was 'baffling' to say the least.

My view on lockdown is that whilst I'm okay with saying to those at little or no risk you can start to get back to closer to normal, albeit still with social distancing, it's extremely important that those with a higher risk are protected (balancing their rights with the need to shield them, which I know won't be easy). I think one of the issues with this disease is the one you're highlighting and that's people's acceptance of their personal risk and whether it's okay society wise to say 'go back to work' and accept some of them will probably die or become seriously ill. Personally I'm fairly blasé about my dying risk (43, scrawny cycling build, no health problems I know about) but even then I don't like the thought of catching it and getting it bad enough to have complications or lasting ill-health. I know my risk of dying is low enough not to bother me but no idea of my risk of getting lasting health issues.

I think my view that people are dying (and will do) because of lockdown is correct but to what extent I've no idea and I do get the view that given the uncertainties it's better at this stage to lockdown because we know that will save lives (again assuming a vaccine and that the disease will stick around and re-occur rather than fading out - no idea on this though given MERS and SARS were big scares but aren't still flaring up noticeably?). I think the convoluted nature of the incidental deaths thing (cheers Fairweather!) is that if you accept my view they're being caused you still need to look at how many versus how many incidental deaths are being saved - some are exercising more, some not, some are drinking more, some not, some people will be really struggling with the isolation etc. but some will find the escape from daily commute and the fact they can get out for a walk more, spend more time in the garden etc to be making them less stressed and anxious. With lower traffic no only will there have been less pollution deaths but also less RTAs and deaths from them.

I guess in 5-10 years time when this is hopefully a distant memory the evidence will be clearer on the pros/cons of the approach we and others have taken and it can used to better inform our response for the next epidemic.

As a final aside and FWIW whilst I have reservations about how we locked down and its negative impacts, given we did I'd have said easing when we did was probably not the right call and we should have been more cautious and clearly done some better planning ahead of any easing. I'd have waited 2-3 weeks to make sure the death and infection fall was sustained and (liberal views aside) enforced the lockdown more rigorously at that point to make sure the pain of the extension was balanced by the maximum gains. 

(I do feel like I contradict or second guess myself a lot on this subject, probably just as well I'm not making decisions)

 

---

Haven't seen it, but strangely Dr Jennie Harries, whenever she appears at Daily briefings comes across as a pretty straightforward and thorough "authority" within her profession.  Hardly a spinner, but just my observation of course. 

..... well they are petrified of saying anything that undermines the government mantra. The Medical Director, NHS, has just described some utopian NHS system where we can just call on our multi disciplinary GP's who are at our beck and call. So why it took a week to get a useless doctor out to my 90 year old neighbour before the crisis I don't know. Still, he's dead now so no worries.

---

BREAKING: Sage confirm that the R rate has been rising all week and is at 1

Not surprising. Loads a people's been out & about here in Lowestoft since last Friday.

You can also see here:- https://covid.joinzoe.com/data. 
 
I'm sticking with the lockdown, not only to protect myself but to protect others too.

Not surprising. Lots a people's been out & about since last Friday here.

Sorry to re-iterate but the increase in the R rate doesn't reflect activity from a week ago. FACT

---

Sorry to re-iterate but the increase in the R rate doesn't reflect activity from a week ago. FACT

Well, tell that to others, too.

 

..... well they are petrified of saying anything that undermines the government mantra. The Medical Director, NHS, has just described some utopian NHS system where we can just call on our multi disciplinary GP's who are at our beck and call. So why it took a week to get a useless doctor out to my 90 year old neighbour before the crisis I don't know. Still, he's dead now so no worries.

Politicians "spin", medical professionals just interpret the information they have available to them. I'm not sure any of the current team of medical professionals are in fear of their jobs when they say what they see. We don't arrange accidents for them as at the present time the Govt is in desperate need of guidance. 

Your interpretation, the media's interpretation maybe different, but you're not an expert.

---

 

Well, tell that to others, too.

All I'm saying is how the R rate is calculated is very well documented and wouldn't incorporate activity from last weekend.

---

 

..... well they are petrified of saying anything that undermines the government mantra. The Medical Director, NHS, has just described some utopian NHS system where we can just call on our multi disciplinary GP's who are at our beck and call. So why it took a week to get a useless doctor out to my 90 year old neighbour before the crisis I don't know. Still, he's dead now so no worries.

 Unfortunately I agree with this. My wife has a little experience of one of the university hospitals in London and she tells me it is fantastic. However, get out of town and you will see some utter horror shows. Scarborough hospital is high on the list. Even York hospital looked like a scene from Threads when I visited my auntie in January. 

---

All I'm saying is how the R rate is calculated is very well documented and wouldn't incorporate activity from last weekend.

Oh, I see. Thanks. :)

10,024 in hospital down from 11,041 yesterday and down 13% from last Friday

A 9% drop in one day? Northern Ireland data is still a day behind so i think it is a 9% drop if you include Northern Ireland data for yesterday but not today. General trend is down though.