The Weather Outlook

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Gavin D
10 April 2020 20:05:48

Essan
10 April 2020 20:06:45

 

  1. Why don’t they have the data?

  2. If we have more capacity why is our death rate just as high. You obviously didn’t read the question

  3. Your part of the problem

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


1. they are not omnipotent.  And humans are falliable (I appreciate this may be a difficlut concept for you to accept).  I don't know how many, if any, such deaths occur,  But agree, if they are verified as being due to Covid-19 they need adding to the stats.

2. because death is not deterimed by how many ICUs you have.   If you have 10,000 patients it makes no difference if you have 10,000, 20,000 of 100,000 ICUs ....

3. That's your personal opinion.  You have every right to hold it.   It does not mean it is correct.

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

Darren S
10 April 2020 20:08:34

 

I get that completely. If as you said earlier, deaths were more uniform throughout Italy perhaps their deaths would have been lower. But my point remains - we haven’t yet got close to capacity and yet our deaths are looking like exceeding Italy.

Therefore if we have the capacity and a more informal spread of deaths; why are things looking worse for the UK

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

We don't know we are going to signifcantly exceed Italy's death count, don't forget we have over 10% more people than Italy so you need to allow for us being 10% higher.

All the way through this, we have been exactly two weeks behind Italy. Two weeks ago it was the 27th March, which funnily enough was the day Italy had the highest death count. Just maybe we won't exceed the 980 deaths recorded today.

Darren

Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)

South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

Heavy Weather 2013
10 April 2020 20:09:50

Your third point is completely unnecessary.

I find it hard enough reading your incessant negativity but you're entitled to take whatever line you want. But being unpleasant to a respected poster is a step too far.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

It’s not incessant negativity. These are important questions that need to be addressed and discussed. I felt those responses didn’t do that?

How was I unpleasant? The poster didn’t say why he felt they were doing a good job.

The facts are this Gandalf, the government have been behind the curve on this - and this has no doubt cause more deaths.

If your not able to stomach strong debate, perhaps the UIA forum is not for you or you could even my comments.

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

speckledjim
10 April 2020 20:11:21

 


1. they are not omnipotent.  And humans are falliable (I appreciate this may be a difficlut concept for you to accept).  I don't know how many, if any, such deaths occur,  But agree, if they are verified as being due to Covid-19 they need adding to the stats.

2. because death is not deterimed by how many ICUs you have.   If you have 10,000 patients it makes no difference if you have 10,000, 20,000 of 100,000 ICUs ....

3. That's your personal opinion.  You have every right to hold it.   It does not mean it is correct.

Originally Posted by: Essan 

πŸ‘πŸ‘

Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

Heavy Weather 2013
10 April 2020 20:12:27

 


1. they are not omnipotent.  And humans are falliable (I appreciate this may be a difficlut concept for you to accept).  I don't know how many, if any, such deaths occur,  But agree, if they are verified as being due to Covid-19 they need adding to the stats.

2. because death is not deterimed by how many ICUs you have.   If you have 10,000 patients it makes no difference if you have 10,000, 20,000 of 100,000 ICUs ....

3. That's your personal opinion.  You have every right to hold it.   It does not mean it is correct.

Originally Posted by: Essan 

Thank you for responding with some detail on your answers. Happy for people to have an opposing view, but just felt the previous ones were flippant. 

 

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

SJV
10 April 2020 20:20:00

This table shows our daily death toll in comparison with Italy, Spain, France and Germany. Open in new tab for larger version.

It assumes we are 14 days behind Italy, arguably the closest curve progression to ours and we are several hundred deaths 'in front' now and we still don't know if we've peaked. I take Darren's earlier point about how Italy's deaths were more concentrated to Lombardy while ours are more spread out.

John p
10 April 2020 20:24:26

Interesting and slightly alarming thread:

 

Camberley, Surrey
Tim A
10 April 2020 20:35:40

 

  1. Why don’t they have the data?

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

 

Testing in care homes has likely been poor to date and seems to relate to available testers,  in many cases local infection control teams working for council/NHS CCG. They do not have many resources and have had their budgets severely cut over the last 10 years.  

Individual councils or local health protection teams may be gathering data where confirmed cases have died but this will vary in each council area.

The CQC are notified of every care home death but this relies on info on cause of death provided accurately by the home manager. This is probably the best bet for analysing confirmed cases but systems are not set up to provide daily updates on this. 

Because of the low levels of testing any figures will be the tip of the iceberg.

Stands to reason there will be many deaths in peoples own homes as well as many stay in their home with care rather than go to a care home. Many people will have advanced plans which avoid hospital admission.These will not be reported in the figures either. 

Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

Β My PWS 

Polar Low
10 April 2020 20:42:26

Many would have also have signed a DNR

 

 

 

Testing in care homes has likely been poor to date and seems to relate to available testers,  in many cases local infection control teams working for council/NHS CCG. They do not have many resources and have had their budgets severely cut over the last 10 years.  

Individual councils or local health protection teams may be gathering data where confirmed cases have died but this will vary in each council area.

The CQC are notified of every care home death but this relies on info on cause of death provided accurately by the home manager. This is probably the best bet for analysing confirmed cases but systems are not set up to provide daily updates on this. 

Because of the low levels of testing any figures will be the tip of the iceberg.

Stands to reason there will be many deaths in peoples own homes as well as many stay in their home with care rather than go to a care home. Many people will have advanced plans which avoid hospital admission.These will not be reported in the figures either. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

Polar Low
10 April 2020 20:44:06

Grim and very concerning 


This table shows our daily death toll in comparison with Italy, Spain, France and Germany. Open in new tab for larger version.

It assumes we are 14 days behind Italy, arguably the closest curve progression to ours and we are several hundred deaths 'in front' now and we still don't know if we've peaked. I take Darren's earlier point about how Italy's deaths were more concentrated to Lombardy while ours are more spread out.

Originally Posted by: SJV 

Rob K
10 April 2020 20:44:45

 

Don't know if this has already been posted...

Email reveals why Cheltenham Festival continued despite COVID-19 threat

"Organisers of Cheltenham Festival cited Boris Johnson's attendance at the England versus Wales Six Nations rugby match as one of the reasons they would not cancel the race meeting before it took place.

In an email sent to Cheltenham Borough Councillors before the Festival started on March 10, The Jockey Club highlights the Prime Minster attended the international rugby game three days before the event.

The email also quoted medical advice from the chief medicalofficer of Scotland, Catherine Calderwood, who had previously said: "There is actually very little impact on virus spread from mass gatherings, particularly if they are in the open air."

https://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/news/cheltenham-news/cheltenham-festival-directors-cite-boris-4035672

 

Originally Posted by: RobN 

I remember that guidance... saying that football matches shouldn’t be cancelled because it was safer to have a stadium full of people than risk having people watch it in a pub. Idiocy. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." β€” Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
10 April 2020 20:50:00

 

Agree. The Italians warned us in early March, but we didn't take the steps necessary. Now we are following the same curve and yet no criticism of the Govt at all!

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

What rock have you been under? The government is being criticised heavily for taking so long to tighten the restrictions. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." β€” Jerome K. Jerome

John p
10 April 2020 20:54:49

 

What rock have you been under? The government is being criticised heavily for taking so long to tighten the restrictions. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I haven’t seen as much criticism from the print media as you might expect, to be fair, but plenty from the general public.

Camberley, Surrey
John p
10 April 2020 21:03:14

I thought this was a parody account when I first read it.

 

Camberley, Surrey
Gandalf The White
10 April 2020 21:43:45

 

It’s not incessant negativity. These are important questions that need to be addressed and discussed. I felt those responses didn’t do that?

How was I unpleasant? The poster didn’t say why he felt they were doing a good job.

The facts are this Gandalf, the government have been behind the curve on this - and this has no doubt cause more deaths.

If your not able to stomach strong debate, perhaps the UIA forum is not for you or you could even my comments.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

You seem unable to recognise the difference between 'strong debate' and negativity. I don't see much evidence of you engaging in real debate.

We are both entitled to express our opinions, as far as I am aware?

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Lionel Hutz
10 April 2020 21:53:57

 

It’s not incessant negativity. These are important questions that need to be addressed and discussed. I felt those responses didn’t do that?

How was I unpleasant? The poster didn’t say why he felt they were doing a good job.

The facts are this Gandalf, the government have been behind the curve on this - and this has no doubt cause more deaths.

If your not able to stomach strong debate, perhaps the UIA forum is not for you or you could even my comments.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Say what you like about GtW, but I wouldn't doubt his ability to handle strong debateπŸ™‚

Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



Polar Low
10 April 2020 21:56:53

Indeed

 

Say what you like about GtW, but I wouldn't doubt his ability to handle strong debateπŸ™‚

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 

Gandalf The White
10 April 2020 22:45:36

 

Say what you like about GtW, but I wouldn't doubt his ability to handle strong debateπŸ™‚

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 

πŸ˜‰πŸ˜‰

 

 

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



The Beast from the East
10 April 2020 23:00:10

 

I will willingly come round and solve this problem for you with hardware.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

They are the family with the 3 cats, so you can deal with that issue as well

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

The Beast from the East
10 April 2020 23:11:54

I thought this was a parody account when I first read it.

 

Originally Posted by: John p 

Tomorrow's Sun front page is vomit inducing as well

 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

The Beast from the East
10 April 2020 23:12:57

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

fairweather
10 April 2020 23:52:21

 

I haven’t seen as much criticism from the print media as you might expect, to be fair, but plenty from the general public.

Originally Posted by: John p 

Is there? The leader of that Government has never been so popular, it seems. Nowadays people seem to think it's some sort of Celebrity Big Brother, and they want their man Boris to stay in the house despite his room mates shortcomings!

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Gandalf The White
10 April 2020 23:54:18

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Outstandingly dumb, especially for someone who bragged recently about being ‘very good at this stuff’.

 

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



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