The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

Gavin D
29 March 2020 13:06:03
2,433 new confirmed cases from 6,961 tests

Heavy Weather 2013
29 March 2020 13:07:05
Deaths have dropped. This is good news. However, with so many positives cases during the last few days I fear it will go up massively soon.


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Quantum
29 March 2020 13:07:27

This is the JFF model with 3 day periodicity incoperated.

https://i.ibb.co/qnNhyn8/latestjff.png 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Gavin D
29 March 2020 13:07:51
Confirmed rate is 34.95% a slight drop from yesterday's 36.38%
Gooner
29 March 2020 13:08:35

Deaths have dropped. This is good news. However, with so many positives cases during the last few days I fear it will go up massively soon.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

As we have seen though Mark , it bounces back up 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Joe Bloggs
29 March 2020 13:09:03

 

I agree with you Joe. I think there's a degree of balance that needs to be taken otherwise we'll all go mental. 

Besides I'm hoping the viral load theory is right, meaning a very small dose of the virus present on an object would mean a you were more likely to get mild symptoms. 

Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 

Yes I’ve read this too NS.

I’m hoping that if you don’t come into contact with someone who has the virus, AND you don’t touch your face whilst you’re out and about (and of course wash your hands as soon as you return home), the chances of contracting the virus are very slim. On the tiny chance you did contract it, the symptoms would hopefully be milder given you would have received a weak exposure. 

Quantum
29 March 2020 13:10:47

 

Q - Can you explain this to me? why do we get a drop and then a bounce back ?

 

Cheers 

 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

No idea, but its happened so often it can't just be coincidence.

If I had to guess I'd say that the majority of testing centres report on one day. The periodicity would be 3 days because it takes approximately 3 days for results to come in. So just by chance more centres are reporting on one day than the other two.

But this is just a guess.

 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Gooner
29 March 2020 13:12:19

 

No idea, but its happened so often it can't just be coincidence.

If I had to guess I'd say that the majority of testing centres report on one day. The periodicity would be 3 days because it takes approximately 3 days for results to come in. So just by chance more centres are reporting on one day than the other two.

But this is just a guess.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Ahh ok 

That makes sense I guess

 

Thank you 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



xioni2
29 March 2020 13:14:08

6,961 tests completed.

The government were lying again...

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 

Germany is already testing 10 times our number.

springsunshine
29 March 2020 13:15:26

The problem is, if it’s part of their culture, we really have no right to demand they change it.  However, one would hope they’ll decide for themselves that they’re dangerous. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Im sorry but we and the rest of the world have every damm right to force them to change!!Covid-19 and every other nasty virus originated from there.There disgusting barbaric culture has the world to its knees and impacted everyone on the earth for the worse,people have died because of their culture and you say we have no right to demand they change it,what planet are you on!! China needs to be made to pay for this big time.

Brian Gaze
29 March 2020 13:16:10

6,961 tests completed.

The government were lying again...

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

I thought the Gover had publicly said 10,000 tests were reporting in the last 24 hours? Perhaps I misunderstood.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gandalf The White
29 March 2020 13:16:23

Can anybody in the scientific community explain what is being discussed in this article.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1286457920300344?via%3Dihub

The abstract.

 

One of the most perplexing questions regarding the current COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic is the discrepancy between the severity of cases observed in the Hubei province of China and those occurring elsewhere in the world. One possible answer is antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) of SARS-CoV-2 due to prior exposure to other coronaviruses. ADE modulates the immune response and can elicit sustained inflammation, lymphopenia, and/or cytokine storm, one or all of which have been documented in severe cases and deaths. ADE also requires prior exposure to similar antigenic epitopes, presumably circulating in local viruses, making it a possible explanation for the observed geographic limitation of severe cases and deaths.

Originally Posted by: nouska 

Well, that was fascinating. I Googled ADE to find more information.  Apparently previous exposure to a similar virus can result in the body's immune response making it easier for the virus to infect cells, i.e. the immune system makes things worse.  I was blissfully unaware of this mechanism. No idea how it sits with SARS-Cov2 though, unless exposure to previous coronaviruses can trigger this effect?


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



springsunshine
29 March 2020 13:22:13

Does anyone think the government should have gone down the parachute payment route rather than all these other schemes.

What I mean is just paid everyone a set amount to get through this period.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Absolutly 100% just give everyone between 21 and 65 that has a national insurance number and isn`t living on benefits a set universal income until things return to normal.So much easier to administer as well id have thought.

Quantum
29 March 2020 13:24:24

Incidentally the latest JFF model is going for:

102 531 confirmed cases

5087 peak daily confirmed cases

Peak day 8th April


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Gavin D
29 March 2020 13:24:32
190 further patients in England have died 

They were aged between 39 and 105 all had underlying health conditions apart from 4 who were aged between 57 and 87

Gandalf The White
29 March 2020 13:25:22

 

Im sorry but we and the rest of the world have every damm right to force them to change!!Covid-19 and every other nasty virus originated from there.There disgusting barbaric culture has the world to its knees and impacted everyone on the earth for the worse,people have died because of their culture and you say we have no right to demand they change it,what planet are you on!! China needs to be made to pay for this big time.

Originally Posted by: springsunshine 

You mean apart from HIV, Ebola, MERS, Bird Flu and Zika.

The common denominator in pretty much every case is proximity to/capture/killing/eating of wild animals.

 


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Gavin D
29 March 2020 13:27:28

The West Midlands has seen a further 28 deaths

  • University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust 7
  • Worcestershire Acute Hospitals NHS Trust 6
  • Sandwell and West Birmingham NHS Trust 4
  • The Dudley Group NHS Foundation Trust 3
  • University Hospitals of North Midlands NHS Trust (Staffs) 3
  • The Shrewsbury and Telford Hospital NHS Trust 3
  • Royal Wolverhampton NHS Trust 2

 

roadrunnerajn
29 March 2020 13:28:39

Nice snow shower here, the locust will probably arrive tomorrow.

Repent now! 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

No there’re in Africa at the moment. We’ll probably get brimstone from an Icelandic volcano..😙


Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic. 80m asl
Quantum
29 March 2020 13:29:49

https://twitter.com/wilfredchan/status/1243887606569590784

Watch this and it's hard not to sympathise with MM's anti WHO view.

 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

xioni2
29 March 2020 13:33:04

 You mean apart from HIV, Ebola, MERS, Bird Flu and Zika.

The common denominator in pretty much every case is proximity to/capture/killing/eating of wild animals.

 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

There was also an article in the Guardian about the possible role of intense animal farming in China (the idea being that small animal farming has been pushed closer to wildlife) - nothing proven of course.

Brian Gaze
29 March 2020 13:33:50

Incidentally the latest JFF model is going for:

102 531 confirmed cases

5087 peak daily confirmed cases

Peak day 8th April

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Wasn't it going for approx 30,000 confirmed cases a couple of days ago?


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gavin D
29 March 2020 13:34:12
17 members of the same family in the West Midlands have tested positive after going to a funeral two weeks ago
Quantum
29 March 2020 13:36:23

 

Wasn't it going for approx 30,000 confirmed cases a couple of days ago?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Yeh it jumps around alot, very sensitive. Since these are exponential functions there is not that much difference between 30k and 100k in these terms. Nevertheless, I hope now it is beginning to converge.


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Gandalf The White
29 March 2020 13:38:10

https://twitter.com/wilfredchan/status/1243887606569590784

Watch this and it's hard not to sympathise with MM's anti WHO view.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Can you explain your comment? All I saw was a manifestation of China's stance towards Taiwan?  

"Taiwan is not a member of the WHO due to the objections of China, which claims the democratic and separately-ruled island as its own."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-taiwan-who/who-says-following-taiwan-virus-response-closely-after-complaints-idUSKBN21G0F9

 

I would assert that this is, in fact, another reason to be highly critical of China and not the WHO.

 


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



xioni2
29 March 2020 13:40:00

https://twitter.com/wilfredchan/status/1243887606569590784

Watch this and it's hard not to sympathise with MM's anti WHO view.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

As usually politics and money matter unfortunately.

 

Remove ads from site