The Weather Outlook

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springsunshine
23 March 2020 21:45:10

The question I ask is are these lockdown actually reducing the numbers or stopping the spread as everyday we see the numbers rising everywhere especially Italy,spain and they will here despite tonights announcement.

Roger Parsons
23 March 2020 21:45:35

"Lockdown" imminent? Tomorrow? Closure of Parliament by end of week for early Easter break for MPs to be in their constituencies? Cobra meetings to continue - possibly digitally? Keep washing your hands? Just rambling....

Roger

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

Only 2/5 - but not too bad.

RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

Quantum
23 March 2020 21:45:46

 

You are right in your sentiment of course, but we obviously don't have the armed forces for anything like it.

As for tanks we have 225, little Greece has 1,345 tanks.

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

I'd expect they'd use GPS phone data and concentrate on 'problem areas'

Anyway it is inevitable they will bring in the millitary if people don't comply.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

xioni2
23 March 2020 21:45:59

 My main gripe with the Government, has not been with the way they have gradually ratcheted up the measures at home, but that they refused to use border controls to prevent the virus gaining such a strong foothold in the first place. Why would it have hurt them to advise against going skiing a few weeks ago at half-term? - that might have halved the current incidence of the disease for all we know. Why not insist that everyone (whether a citizen or a foreign visitor) should have to go through mandatory testing and at least a 7 day quarantine on arrival, even if returning from a holiday? Such measures would have made a difference to the overall penetration and spread of the virus. Plus, Liverpool appears to have dodged a very dangerous bullet with Atletico Madrid - I can only surmise that the Spanish supporters largely kept themselves to themselves - but, given that Madrid is a hot cluster for the virus, I would bet there was a lot of cross infection amongst the Spanish supporters themselves during that visit and flights.

 

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

I'll go on to book my psychotherapy session now, but yeah - agreed! As for Liverpool (and allowing for our slow testing regime) I wouldn't be confident yet that it dodged the bullet.

 

David M Porter
23 March 2020 21:46:09

 

My main gripe with the Government, has not been with the way they have gradually ratcheted up the measures at home, but that they refused to use border controls to prevent the virus gaining such a strong foothold in the first place. Why would it have hurt them to advise against going skiing a few weeks ago at half-term? - that might have halved the current incidence of the disease for all we know. Why not insist that everyone (whether a citizen or a foreign visitor) should have to go through mandatory testing and at least a 7 day quarantine on arrival, even if returning from a holiday? Such measures would have made a difference to the overall penetration and spread of the virus. Plus, Liverpool appears to have dodged a very dangerous bullet with Atletico Madrid - I can only surmise that the Spanish supporters largely kept themselves to themselves - but, given that Madrid is a hot cluster for the virus, I would bet there was a lot of cross infection amongst the Spanish supporters themselves during that visit and flights.

 

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

My thoughts too. The opportunity to at least limit the spread of the virus in the UK was available to the government two months ago before the first case of COVID-19 had even been confirmed in England, but alas it wasn't taken.

The government IMO was at least a month too late in announcing any real measures to try to get to grips with this virus.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Quantum
23 March 2020 21:47:01

The question I ask is are these lockdown actually reducing the numbers or stopping the spread as everyday we see the numbers rising everywhere especially Italy,spain and they will here despite tonights announcement.

Originally Posted by: springsunshine 

There will be a lag of around 10-14 days.

Also spread will continue in hospitals, supermarkets, e.c.t.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

xioni2
23 March 2020 21:47:43

 I'd expect they'd use GPS phone data and concentrate on 'problem areas'

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

We can use drones and hellfire missiles for hotspots.

 

Heavy Weather 2013
23 March 2020 21:47:44
We have just had an email from the CFO to ensure that all budgets are cut as far as possible and other measures may be considered.

This all seriously worrying.

I do fear that there could well be cascade effect. Could we have total economic collapse?

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Quantum
23 March 2020 21:48:15

 

My main gripe with the Government, has not been with the way they have gradually ratcheted up the measures at home, but that they refused to use border controls to prevent the virus gaining such a strong foothold in the first place. Why would it have hurt them to advise against going skiing a few weeks ago at half-term? - that might have halved the current incidence of the disease for all we know. Why not insist that everyone (whether a citizen or a foreign visitor) should have to go through mandatory testing and at least a 7 day quarantine on arrival, even if returning from a holiday? Such measures would have made a difference to the overall penetration and spread of the virus. Plus, Liverpool appears to have dodged a very dangerous bullet with Atletico Madrid - I can only surmise that the Spanish supporters largely kept themselves to themselves - but, given that Madrid is a hot cluster for the virus, I would bet there was a lot of cross infection amongst the Spanish supporters themselves during that visit and flights.

 

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

I agree, back then noone took it seriously. I suspect the government thought it would stay in China or just be like bird flu.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Bugglesgate
23 March 2020 21:48:49

The question I ask is are these lockdown actually reducing the numbers or stopping the spread as everyday we see the numbers rising everywhere especially Italy,spain and they will here despite tonights announcement.

Originally Posted by: springsunshine 

 

Reducing social interaction is bound to slow the spread of the wretched thing.   Nobody  is talking about stopping it  using these methods just slowing it enough to prevent  a lot of death - both of old people and of others that can't access a crippled NHS.  What would the rate of growth be like in Spain "et-al" without them ?  is  the more valid question.

 

Chris (It,its)

Between Newbury and Basingstoke

"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"

llamedos
23 March 2020 21:49:07

I assume that while recycling centers will be closed, refuse collections will not be impacted??

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator

xioni2
23 March 2020 21:49:47

We have just had an email from the CFO to ensure that all budgets are cut as far as possible and other measures may be considered.

This all seriously worrying.

I do fear that there could well be cascade effect. Could we have total economic collapse?

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

I think the economic fallout will be significant and for many people bigger than the impact from the virus. However the govt seems determined to help people and businesses and I think and hope they will take more measures.

Gavin D
23 March 2020 21:53:59

£30 fine for breaking the rules

ET00p74XYAIF-Cs.thumb.jpg.7926d024f2de32e8ac1bbf4171d2505e.jpg

xioni2
23 March 2020 21:56:09

There will be a lag of around 10-14 days.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

It's probably even longer. In Italy on average the dead spend 8 days in hospital, if you allow around 5 days for symptoms to appear and a few days to escalate to pneumonia, you have a lag longer than 2 weeks. Essentially what the govt is doing today, impacts the hospitals 1.5-2 weeks later and the number of deaths ~3 weeks later. 

Italy has just passed 2 weeks of lockdown, so it will be interesting to see if things start turning properly by this time next week.

Darren S
23 March 2020 21:56:10

I compared the figures by NHS region with those from 5 days ago.

As you can see, the virus is spreading fastest in the Midlands, and slowest in the South East. My local authority, Wokingham, has been stuck at 13 cases for a few days now.

London - 2,433 (+1480, +155%)
Midlands - 808 (+574, +245%)
South East - 590 (+305, +107%)
North West - 496 (+316, +175%)
North East and Yorkshire - 446 (+278, +165%)
East of England - 351 (+223, +174%)
South West - 278 (+161, +137%)

Darren

Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)

South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

nsrobins
23 March 2020 21:56:38

What about those country hotels with bars and restaurants.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

What hotels? There shouldn’t be any hotels open now unless for essential workers.

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Heavy Weather 2013
23 March 2020 21:56:53
I can confirm hotels are included and have been instructed to close.

Construction sites are not listed or included.

However that could fall could of public gatherings of two or more people

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Heavy Weather 2013
23 March 2020 21:58:34

 

What hotels? There shouldn’t be any hotels open now unless for essential workers.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Just checked the official list and your quite correct this has been listed.

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Brian Gaze
23 March 2020 21:59:13

According to this in (yes I know) the Fail, Germany can test about 23,000 people per day:

Why is Germany's coronavirus death rate so low? Berlin claims infection curve is flattening amid claims combination of young patients, more intensive care beds and determination to 'find every case' is behind unusual figures

The top German health institute says the country can carry out around 160,000 tests per week, according to German media.  

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8141929/Why-Germanys-coronavirus-death-rate-low.html

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

xioni2
23 March 2020 22:00:10

I compared the figures by NHS region with those from 5 days ago.

As you can see, the virus is spreading fastest in the Midlands, and slowest in the South East. My local authority, Wokingham, has been stuck at 13 cases for a few days now.

London - 2,433 (+1480, +155%)
Midlands - 808 (+574, +245%)
South East - 590 (+305, +107%)
North West - 496 (+316, +175%)
North East and Yorkshire - 446 (+278, +165%)
East of England - 351 (+223, +174%)
South West - 278 (+161, +137%)

Originally Posted by: Darren S 

Very interesting, is that in west midlands and could there be a cultural/religious factor? (bigger and more extended Muslim families living in the same household etc.)

Heavy Weather 2013
23 March 2020 22:03:11

I compared the figures by NHS region with those from 5 days ago.

As you can see, the virus is spreading fastest in the Midlands, and slowest in the South East. My local authority, Wokingham, has been stuck at 13 cases for a few days now.

London - 2,433 (+1480, +155%)
Midlands - 808 (+574, +245%)
South East - 590 (+305, +107%)
North West - 496 (+316, +175%)
North East and Yorkshire - 446 (+278, +165%)
East of England - 351 (+223, +174%)
South West - 278 (+161, +137%)

Originally Posted by: Darren S 

Midlands now turning into a hotspot.

These % increases show that we just in the acceleration phase and it’s likely with the lag effect that deaths this week will go up.

 

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Saint Snow
23 March 2020 22:04:33

 

We don't have enough tanks or military to staff checkpoints. We have no national guard to call up. We have to do this by ourselves.

Originally Posted by: RobN 

We have Brigadier-General Field Marshal Mark Francois. He's a one-man army in himself.

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

xioni2
23 March 2020 22:05:41

 We have Brigadier-General Field Marshal Mark Francois. He's a one-man army in himself.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

They tried to 3d print him, but the printer lacked such fine resolution.

JHutch
23 March 2020 22:07:16

 

Very interesting, is that in west midlands and could there be a cultural/religious factor? 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

I think Maunder has talked about the number of cases in the West Midlands conurbation before but in the 'top 10' someone put up earlier i saw that Birmingham was suddenly near the top where it was just London/Hants/Herts a few days ago. Cumbria had appeared at number 10 too.

The map in the New Statesman article below shows the number of cases per area along withe average infection rate per 100,000 people.

https://www.newstatesman.com/2020/03/live-data-coronavirus-crisis-all-you-need-know

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