The Weather Outlook

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NickR
17 March 2020 22:22:00

 

 

you’ve got quite a stash of stuff up there in the north east, Nick😛😛

Originally Posted by: Chichesterweatherfan2 

You have no idea!

To be fair, the vast majority is my no deal stockpile. It's split into 3 areas of the house. Unfortunately I only did an inventory for the stuff under the stairs. All I know is there are a sh_it tonne of various types of beans somewhere, so when the good stuff runs out, it's chilli sin carne for 2 months!

Glad I did non-food stuff too, though as I proudly announced to Mrs R that I had bought a 96 wash pack of laundry detergent, she asked if I'd bought fabric conditioner too. Reader, I regret to say that I had not.

Nick

Durham

[email protected]

Rob K
17 March 2020 22:22:51

 

Massive, massive underestimate of asymptomatic cases (and the likelihood they were in Europe far, far earlier), and they are big spreaders. The death rate being quoted is based on symptomatic cases. I'm not sure I agree with what I've been told, but I'm more shocked now than before, hence the booze...

 

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Sorry but that doesn’t make any sense at all. Why would all  of the first wave of cases be asymptomatic or mild, with severe and fatal cases suddenly appearing later on in a classic exponential curve? I just don’t see how that could happen. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Brian Gaze
17 March 2020 22:26:00

 

Agreed, it’s ridiculous. Lots of people got a bad cold/chest infection around Christmas. What else is new. So many posts in social media trying to claim they had this virus “before it was cool”. I’m reminded of this. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/health/hipster-claiming-to-have-covid-18-20200309194292%3fformat=amp

 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

My wife and I have had nasty "colds" during the last couple of weeks. A number of people have tried to (for positive reasons) convince us we have had COVID-19. We have tried to convince ourselves too. Sadly all the evidence says otherwise. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Arcus
17 March 2020 22:33:24

 

Sorry but that doesn’t make any sense at all. Why would all  of the first wave of cases be asymptomatic or mild, with severe and fatal cases suddenly appearing later on in a classic exponential curve? I just don’t see how that could happen. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Hey, don't shoot the messenger. I said I found it hard to understand as well.

Anyway enough for me. This thread will still be going in December it would seem.

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Gandalf The White
17 March 2020 22:39:00

Back to Ursula von der Leyen and her completely irresponsible comment today - irresponsible, because people will see the headline comment and expect a vaccine in the autumn.

I have tried to spread some realism about that and now the BBC Website has posted the following:

 

How close are we to a vaccine?

Let's dig a little deeper into this.

The head of the EU commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has said a German company could have a vaccine ready by the autumn.

But how likely is this? And what needs to happen for us to get there?

So far, researchers have developed vaccines and are starting to test them. There could be human trials by the end of the year if these tests go well.

But, even if a vaccine is developed before 2021, there's still a major hurdle beyond that in the shape of firms being able to successfully mass-produce doses.

It means, realistically, one would not be ready until at least the middle of next year.

Here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51921683

 

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

The problem, never mind the task of thorough testing, is the sheer number of doses required.  Just covering the most at risk means hundreds of millions are required. For comparison around 160m flu shots are made each year, so as much as five times as many.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



xioni2
17 March 2020 22:41:11

 I bought 3 houses for my no deal stockpiling

Originally Posted by: NickR 

four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
17 March 2020 22:46:37

I've now had a full debrief on the science. My last post on the subject now as I've chosen to drink quite heavily. Please don't be complacent. Good news - there might be a chance are we're already up to near 20m+ (virus has been here since Dec19, undiagnosed deaths etc.), but we need to push for antibody tests. Do not push for the viral tests. Worthless.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 



Indeed.
From the start things have not quite added up, this could turn out to be a fine example of little more than accidentally engineered mass hysteria over a disease with death rate no worse than normal flu.
Now you think - but Italy.
It's a hotspot but the antibody tests need to be rolled out fast to know what's going on

New coronaviruses emerge all the time, if you aren't careful it's way too easy to misinterpret things.
If you suddenly assign all 'normal' flu deaths to the strain you just found, it suddenly looks alarming.
This is what happened in Wuhan and the media ran with it and now we are where we are - for no good reason most likely.

Just some thoughts, don't be complacent but the International panic is a complete over-reaction we will see this soon.

North York Moors weather 
David M Porter
17 March 2020 22:52:34

Some potentially very good news (apologies if anyone has already mentioned this here):

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/17/coronavirus-vaccine-ready-autumn-says-european-commission-chief-12414537/?ito=article.desktop.share.top.facebook&fbclid=IwAR3baxDr0xonWwGNDQttyOWkqedn22gclUV-pCYxSCg0UHTVoE1zIR5rerg

 

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

David M Porter
17 March 2020 22:53:50

Walked out of my local Sainsbury's tonight. The place has been stripped. It's getting worse now as all the fresh fruit and veg has gone this time. Fresh meat, Baked beans, Soup, Tinned veg, Pasta, Eggs, Dog and Cat Food, Toilet Rolls..... It's fxcking madness. I can only shop at that time as I start work so early. I feel so sorry for people who really need this stuff and can't because of these selfish and profiteering cxnts

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

Only one thing to stop this IMO: Rationing!

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Arcus
17 March 2020 22:53:53

 

The problem, never mind the task of thorough testing, is the sheer number of doses required.  Just covering the most at risk means hundreds of millions are required. For comparison around 160m flu shots are made each year, so as much as five times as many.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

I said I wouldn't say any more but...

12 to 18 months bare minimum on a vaccine.

In terms of tracked cases the best immunity we have is now nearly 3 months post infection. There have been a very small number of cases of re-infection after being cleared. That's a worry. Very early days on tracking post infection cases - if there are more recurrences on infection then all bets might be off in a vaccine. As I said before, this may turn into a flu type situation where new vaccines need to be formulated each year in several flavours. Make no mistake, this is a nasty fucker of a virus.

 

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Chichesterweatherfan2
17 March 2020 22:54:36

 

You have no idea!

To be fair, the vast majority is my no deal stockpile. It's split into 3 areas of the house. Unfortunately I only did an inventory for the stuff under the stairs. All I know is there are a sh_it tonne of various types of beans somewhere, so when the good stuff runs out, it's chilli sin carne for 2 months!

Glad I did non-food stuff too, though as I proudly announced to Mrs R that I had bought a 96 wash pack of laundry detergent, she asked if I'd bought fabric conditioner too. Reader, I regret to say that I had not.

Originally Posted by: NickR 

 

i’m not sure I like the sound of that 😛😛

Gavin D
17 March 2020 23:03:56
Sky News: High streets should have been all but abandoned if the prime minister's advice to avoid non-essential contact had been heeded, but in places trade has been brisk.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-shoppers-defy-pm-to-visit-cafes-get-haircuts-and-buy-diy-goods-11959269?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter 

Gandalf The White
17 March 2020 23:13:32

 

I said I wouldn't say any more but...

12 to 18 months bare minimum on a vaccine.

In terms of tracked cases the best immunity we have is now nearly 3 months post infection. There have been a very small number of cases of re-infection after being cleared. That's a worry. Very early days on tracking post infection cases - if there are more recurrences on infection then all bets might be off in a vaccine. As I said before, this may turn into a flu type situation where new vaccines need to be formulated each year in several flavours. Make no mistake, this is a nasty fucker of a virus.

 

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Yes, the cases of reinfection are a concern but I don't think there's been anything about whether these are due to a weak immune response or a trait of this strain of virus, or a slight mutation even (maybe less likely).

Your last point echoes something said on the radio last night: this virus has the perfect characteristics to attack human beings.  It's just random of course, but there are so many viruses around.  But we've gone through this many times - we've been lucky for a century, albeit with some close encounters.

 

No doubt lessons will be learned but if another novel virus makes the jump the challenges will be there again; maybe less but maybe more.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Gavin D
17 March 2020 23:21:50
The RHS have cancelled all shows up to and including June 30th

The following shows as a result are off

RHS London Spring Launch & Orchid Show, 7th-8th April 

RHS London Botanical Art and Photography Show, 17th-18th April 

RHS Cardiff, 17th-19th April

RHS Malvern, 7th–10th May 

RHS Chelsea, 19th–23rd May

RHS Chatsworth, 11th–14th June

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 March 2020 23:54:29

Well, now you know - it was predicted all along

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weird/1256553/Coronavirus-Sylvia-Browne-prediction-COVID19-prophecy-pneumonia

but maybe she got the idea from Nostradamus who was also thinking along these lines

 

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 March 2020 23:56:49

 

Only one thing to stop this IMO: Rationing!

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

co-op has a list of '3 items only' on the door.

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Gavin D
18 March 2020 00:15:41
BREAKING

Sainsbury's is rationing sale of *ALL* groceries

People will be able to buy a maximum of THREE of any product

Limit set at two for the most popular products

Also:

* 'Silver hour' for elderly in stores once a week

* Priority access to delivery slots for elderly

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1240065630600134657?s=19 

The Beast from the East
18 March 2020 00:47:01

 

I think Beast is a socialist and his mates are right wing nationalists. Your point is valid regardless.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

If Boris closes them, they can claim insurance, so he wont

Direct your anger at him, not a mere pleb like me

 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

The Beast from the East
18 March 2020 00:52:09

 

He bangs on about spivs and shysters who care nothing for anybody else. Imagine my surprise when he also turned out to be a selfish pr1ck.

Edit: I had it confirmed by a GP today that I am in the 'high risk' category. So while Geoff (Beast) can stick two fingers up at everybody and lord it in the pub, I and 1.5 million others face being confined to our homes for 12 weeks from Saturday.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

I am just doing what the King's dad is doing. Blame the King for not having the guts to close them like everyone else in Europe

There is no such thing as society, Each man for himself, Survival of the fittest. That's what 40 years of Rupert has done to this country

Yes I am selfish, but just following Tory ideology

 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

glenogle
18 March 2020 00:56:36

 

Well that’s good then. We only have to have a breath of wind in N Norfolk and the power goes awry, so we are used to having power cuts. 

Originally Posted by: chelseagirl 

The energy retailers have no say or ability to control whether your electricity stays on.  It is the network operators whom you need to rely on.  Thankfully they are in theory well versed in keeping the power on in these scenarios.  Control rooms have been in lock down for a week or two now and have additional staff in isolation as back up.  

Also, worth a punt as a share investment as they are a commodity that most people will continue to use each day.

UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
CreweCold
18 March 2020 01:19:36

 

I'm not buying it. Look at the surge in deaths in Italy and increasingly France and Spain. Britain too has started to measure an increase in recent days.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Well I had whatever was going around between Christmas and New Year and I've never ever had anything like it before. The symptoms matched Covid (mild) to a tee. Dry cough that developed over a couple of days, shortness of breath where every breath triggered more dry coughing etc. 

I would not be at all surprised if THIS covid we see now is a mutation of the original pathogen.

As I understand it, there was a peak in pneumonia cases around this time too.

Crewe, Cheshire

55 metres above sea level

Retron
18 March 2020 04:17:41

Tesco are closing 24-hour stores between 10pm and 6am for staff to restock the shelves 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Thank you!

You've saved me from pointlessly having to wait 20 minutes this morning, as I would have gone out as usual and popped into Tesco on my way into work (at around 5:40).

 

Leysdown, north Kent
Roger Parsons
18 March 2020 05:48:27

Well I had whatever was going around between Christmas and New Year and I've never ever had anything like it before. The symptoms matched Covid (mild) to a tee. Dry cough that developed over a couple of days, shortness of breath where every breath triggered more dry coughing etc. 

I would not be at all surprised if THIS covid we see now is a mutation of the original pathogen.

As I understand it, there was a peak in pneumonia cases around this time too.

Originally Posted by: CreweCold 

If not true, it is at least credible CC. Me too - but in Jan/Feb. The cough was extraordinary, though I thought it was a cold - temp was not excessive. The GP eventually called me in and prescribed antibiotics for a chest infection. No mask or other precautions! Co-19 was not on the agenda at that stage but I did isolate myself as a generally good public spirited idea. 3 weeks!

R

RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

bledur
18 March 2020 05:56:36



Indeed.
From the start things have not quite added up, this could turn out to be a fine example of little more than accidentally engineered mass hysteria over a disease with death rate no worse than normal flu.
Now you think - but Italy.
It's a hotspot but the antibody tests need to be rolled out fast to know what's going on

New coronaviruses emerge all the time, if you aren't careful it's way too easy to misinterpret things.
If you suddenly assign all 'normal' flu deaths to the strain you just found, it suddenly looks alarming.
This is what happened in Wuhan and the media ran with it and now we are where we are - for no good reason most likely.

Just some thoughts, don't be complacent but the International panic is a complete over-reaction we will see this soon.

Originally Posted by: four 

 Whilst talking to a vet as he was doing a caesarian on a cow he was saying much the same. The mas hysteria has over whelmed the science. As you comment testing is vital as quick as possible.

SJV
18 March 2020 06:05:35

 

 Whilst talking to a vet as he was doing a caesarian on a cow he was saying much the same. The mas hysteria has over whelmed the science. As you comment testing is vital as quick as possible.

Originally Posted by: bledur 

Ah, I didn't want to quote four's post but you have anyway. That makes two insane people in this thread.

To suggest this is just normal flu with added public hysteria is reaching Trump levels of ignorance and idiocy. Something he has already backed down from.

The public can be hysterical, sure. So can the media. The science is solid, or are we saying all the models are wrong? Perhaps I should be putting my trust in a random vet instead of multiple world-renowned scientists? 

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