Indeed. Now Italy is in lockdown, Spain becomes potentially an even bigger threat.

Also for those talking about containment through shutting borders e.c.t. I would add this. Border closure can be very effective if done early, it's arguably too late for us even now. But keep in mind that Iran was worse than Italy and that when the middle east shut it's borders to Iran there did seem to be some degree of sucess.

The problem is, had the UK shut it's borders completely to Italy earlier but the rest of Europe had continued as normal then it would have been completely ineffective. If there was one thing the EU could demonstrate it's utility, it would be for a Europe wide response to the crisis. This is one of those occasions when something like the EU could have been really helpful. But it's too late for that now.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

The UK is still not convincingly in the exponential growth phase. For there to be exponential growth the cumulative day on day increase must roughly be constant (or increasing). If it is declining then we have not yet reached exponential growth.

% growth rate for last five complete days (on cumulative cases)

UK: 35,42,26,33,17   (Decreasing: Exponential growth not yet reached)

Italy: 25,20,27,25,24 (Constant: Exponential growth likely)

Spain: 24,32,18,57,83 (Increasing: Exponential growth very likely)

France: 48,45,55,19,25 (Decreasing: Exponential growth not yet reached)

Germany: 45,53,28,24,34 (Volatile: Exponential growth possible)

Netherlands: 116,56,47,40,22,19 (Decreasing: Exponential growth not yet reached)

Sweeden: 81,68,11,34,36 (Volatile: Exponential growth possible)

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I don't think (short of imprisoning everyone in their homes and not allowing any movement until there is a vaccine) this virus can, or could have been, be contained.

That's my current reading of it all.

Is the Uk doing enough to flatten the peak? More than the US is (which wouldn't be difficult) but perhaps not enough. Johnson needs to look to Europe for examples to bind to.

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

What about London?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 As this was circulating long before the first case was diagnosed presumably there are a lot of cases not being reported and not needing medical intevvention so I think care is needed over interpreting the mortality rate. 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Experts believe most people who get the infection will only have mild disease. Some will be asymptomatic, ie carrying the virus but experiencing no symptoms.

But the disease can be very serious and even deadly for some - typically elderly people with pre-existing health conditions.

Prof Jonathan Ball, an expert in molecular virology at the University of Nottingham, said the study confirmed that for the vast majority of cases, the incubation and therefore quarantine period for new coronavirus, will be up to 14 days.

And, encouragingly: "There is little if any evidence that people can routinely transmit virus during the asymptomatic period."

People are thought to be most contagious when they have obvious symptoms, like cough and fever.

Some spread might be possible before people show symptoms, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.

What about London?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

London’s figures are 4, 9, 13, 10, 30 so potential is there.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

One of the reasons cited for the UK's softly-softly approach currently is to mitigate the risk of the double peak scenario - if you isolate too much, too soon then you run the risk of a second wave down the line.

Worth remembering a lot of the projections are model output. And we know a lot about model output...

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

London’s figures are 4, 9, 13, 10, 30 so potential is there.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

One of the reasons cited for the UK's softly-softly approach currently is to mitigate the risk of the double peak scenario - if you isolate too much, too soon then you run the risk of a second wave down the line.

Worth remembering a lot of the projections are model output. And we know a lot about model output...

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Its crazy therefore to think that the Atletico Madrid match is not being played behind closed doors tomorrow 

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

I'll admit I'm not completely sure why the UK is doing better than the rest of Europe but the empirical evidence suggests it is. I would personally go further, especially in locking down travel (and I'd have done it earlier) but aside from that we are doing something right.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I heard some expect on R4 (I don't mean that pejoratively) saying we could see it return in the autumn and onward. I found that odd given I'd have though immunity would spread as people caught cv. But, perhaps he meant not enough people would catch it for such herd immunity to grow enough.

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

I heard some expect on R4 (I don't mean that pejoratively) saying we could see it return in the autumn and onward. I found that odd given I'd have though immunity would spread as people caught cv. But, perhaps he meant not enough people would catch it for such herd immunity to grow enough.

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

The UK is doing better than other European countries. I suspect that's due to more meticulous contact tracing. Perhaps the handwashing campaigns have also been somewhat effective (since handwashing is probably the best method to easily limit spread).

I'll admit I'm not completely sure why the UK is doing better than the rest of Europe but the empirical evidence suggests it is. I would personally go further, especially in locking down travel (and I'd have done it earlier) but aside from that we are doing something right.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

39 days in the UK has 373 cases and 6 deaths

24 days in Italy has 9,172 cases and 463 deaths

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

I heard some expert on R4 (I don't mean that pejoratively) saying we could see it return in the autumn and onward. I found that odd given I'd have though immunity would spread as people caught cv. But, perhaps he meant not enough people would catch it for such herd immunity to grow enough.

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

It's because we are British and have won 1st prize in the lottery of life. :-)

Originally Posted by: westv 

What about London?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I don't think (short of imprisoning everyone in their homes and not allowing any movement until there is a vaccine) this virus can, or could have been, be contained.

That's my current reading of it all.

Is the Uk doing enough to flatten the peak? More than the US is (which wouldn't be difficult) but perhaps not enough. Johnson needs to look to Europe for examples to bind to.

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

 Spanish flu came in three waves. Hopefully a vaccine will be available between waves 2 and 3 if not sooner. So far nobody is predicting a vaccine before the end of 2020.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White